пятница, 31 августа 2012 г.

US Saturday Preview: Jackson can claim Shackleford

Simon has previewed the best of Saturday's action
Simon Rowlands takes a look at Saturday's action, which focuses on one of Saratoga's last big meetings of the season...
Saratoga's six-week racing extravaganza draws to a close on Monday, but not before a clutch of top-level races are run this weekend, starting with a couple of G1s and a G2 on Saturday.
The Bernard Baruch Handicap over an extended mile (due off 16:39 local time, 21:39 BST) is the least valuable of the trio, with $250,000 in the purse, but may be the most inviting from a punting point of view.
Data Link is the best horse on show, of that there is little doubt, having won the Maker's Mile and Monmouth Stakes this year already, but he has paid for this by being asked to concede plenty of weight to most of his rivals. He may pull this off, but at forecast short odds the smart call could be to look elsewhere.
Alma d'Oro will run only if the race is switched to dirt, and looks to have something to find anyway, while Dominus is smart and attractively weighted but a virgin on this turf surface.
A more appealing proposition is the turf specialist Guys Reward, whose winning streak came to a halt in the Fourstardave Handicap here last time. But that was behind the best horse in North America at the moment, in Wise Dan, and on a soft surface, and Guys Reward's earlier efforts put him right in the mix here. At forecast odds, he looks worth a bet in this company.
The $500,000 Forego Stakes (due off 17:12 locally, 22:12 BST) brings together some quality rivals at the extended sprint trip of seven furlongs. There are few tougher or more versatile horses in terms of distance around than Shackleford, and he should be a major player again.
However, it is easy to see him getting caught up in a pace duel with the speedy Pacific Ocean here, and while Shackleford should win that battle he could end up losing the war as a result.
The beneficiary could well be Jackson Bend, who needs every inch of seven furlongs but who is dependable and high-class when everything goes right for him. Don't be put off by Jackson Bend's defeat over course and distance last time, as the race was not run to suit him and he did perfectly well in the circumstances.
Wise Dan may be the current top dog in North American racing, but there are a few snapping at his heels, and one of those is Mucho Macho Man, winner of three of his four starts this year. Mucho Macho Man posted a 126 Timeform rating when winning the Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park last time, dishing out handsome beatings to Hymn Book, Trickmeister, To Honor And Serve and Stay Thirsty.
The last three of that quartet reoppose Mucho Macho Man in Saturday's nine-furlong Woodward Stakes on dirt (due off at 17:45 locally, 22:45 BST) and have their work cut out if he is in anything like the same form. The problem is that Mucho Macho Man is unlikely to be much of a price - perhaps around the 2.6 mark on Betfair - and it is not too difficult just to sit out this contest.
Short odds also look to be in the offing for Roxy Gap in the G3 Seaway Stakes up at Woodbine (post time of 16:51 locally, 21:51 BST). She's a smart performer (rated 115) and more reliable than her main rivals, but would be vulnerable to Tu Endie Wei if that one had a going day in receipt of 9 lbs.
Tu Endie Wei's best efforts have been when at, or near, the front, and that should be easier for her to achieve here with just five runners and no clear pace-forcers among her rivals. Additionally, the return to Woodbine's synthetic surface looks to be a bonus. It all adds up to a credible bet.
Highlight of Del Mar's card over on the West Coast is the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes for two-year-old fillies over seven furlongs (18:00 local time, 02:00 on Sunday BST).
Undefeated 112-rated Executiveprivilege looks likely to be all the rage, but she faces a serious rival in Heir Kitty, who came up only slightly short behind Know More in a G2 here a month ago and could still improve on her 110 Timeform rating after just two starts.
That defeat means Heir Kitty may be overlooked in favour of "sexier" types here, but that could well be a mistake. Win, place (i.e. first 2) and show (i.e. first 3) bets on Heir Kitty on the Tote (there will be no market on Betfair) all make appeal in the circumstances.
Recommendations:
1 pt win Guys Reward in the Bernard Bruch Handicap
1 pt win Jackson Bend in the Forego Stakes
1 pt win Tu Endie Wei in the Seaway Stakes
0.5 pt each Tote win, place and show Heir Kitty in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes

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