пятница, 31 августа 2012 г.

Weekend Preview: Fashionable genes

Could we clone Sir Michael Stoute? Jamie thinks so!

As racing goes back to some of its roots this weekend, in Turkey, Jamie Lynch looks at the way racing and breeding could be going in future...

Crimeform, Aftertimeform, Timewarp; we've had a few epithets over the years, taken with the grace and good humour with which they weren't delivered, but Timeform does have its uses at times, like these times, the measurement times. In the Kingdom of the undefined, the Go Compare Man is King. Because Timeform has used the same handicapping scale and same handicapping procedures- fine-tuned by technology- since day one, way back in 1948, we feel confident in our ability to provide a guide, through Timeform ratings, of the relative merits of horses over the generations, which is the only means of comparison when a horse like Frankel comes along who's so far ahead of his contemporaries. But there is one horse, or perhaps several horses, who could give Frankel a race: more Frankels.

In Rio de Janeiro, at the 2016 Olympics, cloned horses will be allowed to participate. They're out there already, the result of nurture not nature, created not mated, in the world of eventing and polo. The Federation Equestre Internationale (FEI), the global governors of equestrian sport, last month lifted the ban on clones, reasoning that clones are only ever 98% copies of the original, so that, just like there's no such thing as an exact identical twin, there's no such thing as an exact clone, and that the external factors of environment and raising carry more influence than the material itself.

Understandably, and my instincts say rightly, racing has raised the drawbridge as far as this issue goes. Breeding racehorses is a multi-billion-pound business in its own right, also a way of life for some, as well as a tradition for all, and it has taken centuries of trying and testing, matching one stallion line with another from around the world, to get us to the point we're now at with Frankel: the perfect thoroughbred.

All the same, the possibilities are real and deliciously tantalising. Imagine staging the DNA Derby, made up of the all-time greats, or at least 98% versions of them, to find out once and for all who the Daddy really is. The opposition to Frankel(s) might include, amongst others, Bombardier Gerard, Dancing Knave, Harbringer, Sea Bird III, Facsimilie The Stars, Dubai Mirrornnium, Still Reef and Secretaricopycat.

Why stop at horses? If the science is there for horses, it's there (or nearly there) for humans, meaning we can duplicate some legendary trainers and riders, generating 'new' names such as Repeater Easterby, Tom Imitate and Replica Cumani to do the training and (it gets better I promise) Julie Clone, Frankie Ditto-ri and Mimic Kinane for the riding.

On a more serious point, the danger of cloning is the adverse genetic effect on the breed, making horses all the more inbred, and the gene pool in the sport is very small to begin with, as all thoroughbreds go back to three stallions; the Godolphin Arabian, the Darley Arabian and the Byerley Turk.

As his name suggests, the Byerley Turk has his origins in Turkey, which, believe it or not, is where the main action is this weekend. Yes there's the Solario Stakes at Sandown on Saturday, and yes Danedream runs in a Group 1 at Baden-Baden on Sunday, but for strength in depth the destination is Istanbul. The 'Byerley' bit of the Byerley Turk is the name of the captain who captured him in battle in 1688, and, in recent years, several other British captains- namely Johnston, Balding, Jarvis (M), Dunlop, Given, Channon and (honourary British captain) bin Suroor- have indulged in a bit of re-enactment, capturing the prized races if not the prized horses this time.

The main event is the Topkapi Trophy, run over a mile on turf, won for three years in a row (2008-10) by Michael Jarvis' Pressing, and two of the four British raiders this time are making their debut for new trainers, Master of Hounds (Mike de Kock to Willie Haggas) and Red Duke (John Quinn to David Simcock). Haggas knows what it takes, successful in the 2005 renewal with Brunel, and Master of Hounds looks a class above the rest, already a Group 1 winner in Meydan this year and last seen in the World Cup there (faded into eighth). Like the trainer, the jockey also knows what it takes in Turkey, Christophe Soumillon having won the 2011 Topkapi Trophy aboard Musir for the same owner. You can read Matt Gardner's detailed preview of all four of the big races at Veliefendi here, but suffice to say he too thinks Master of Hounds is a good bet for the feature.

Of the three foundation sires, the Darley Arabian now has almost a monopoly, as 90% of present-day thoroughbreds can be traced back to him, but the Byerley Turk line trickles on, with fitting success in Turkey, courtesy of Halicarnassus in the 2009 Bosphorus Cup, and represented this year by Arsaadi, another Haggas challenger, in the Istanbul Trophy. For carrying the weight of the Byerley Turk stallion line at this year's premier meeting in Turkey, Arsaadi is alone, but at least she's not a clone.

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