Premier League Stats: Jelavic-powered Everton are a solid bet

Nikica Jelavic has been a key signing for Everton

Andrew Atherley's stats suggest David Moyes' Everton are a solid bet ahead of their trip to West Brom this weekend, while the Manchester duo are also worth an investment...

Everton can secure their strongest start to a Premier League season in almost 20 years with victory at West Brom on Saturday and they stand out as one of the most solid bets on the weekend programme.

David Moyes' best start as Everton manager was in 2006/07 with seven points out of nine in the first three games, but for most of his reign the Toffees have been slow starters and they have not won their opening three matches since 1993 under Howard Kendall.

The difference this time is that Everton have taken the form of last season's strong finish into the new campaign. Their unbeaten run in the Premier League now stretches to 11 matches, dating back to March 21 when Arsenal beat them 1-0 at Goodison Park.

With league victories over Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle in the past six months, Everton are a team on a roll and look genuine contenders for a top-four finish at 6.411/2 and even more so for the top six at 2.447/5.

Everton's improvement has been helped in no small part by Nikica Jelavic's arrival at Goodison, giving Moyes the goal-scoring striker he has been unable to afford in the past. The Croatian, who looks a bargain at 5.5m, scored the winner in a 1-0 victory over Tottenham on his first start and Everton have gone on to lose only once in 12 league games when he has been in the starting line-up. Jelvaic has scored in seven of those 12 starts and Everton's record when he has scored is won five, drawn two.

The Merseysiders were solid without Jelavic and that is a trait they are unlikely to lose while Moyes is in charge. That's clear from their underlying form against teams outside the big six - their last defeat in that category was on January 4 at home to Bolton. Since then, their record against teams outside the big six is won six, drawn seven.

The draw rate is significant and is a sign of strength, not weakness, especially when it comes to backing Everton on the Asian handicap. The key is that Everton are hard to beat against the bulk of the Premier League, with just four defeats out of 26 last season against teams outside the big six.

Everton's wins far outweigh their losses in that category and that makes them a team to consider whenever they are available off scratch on the Asian handicap in away games, as they were for last weekend's 3-1 win at Aston Villa and again against West Brom on Saturday at 1.768/11.

Since the start of last season, Everton have won six and lost only one of their away games against teams outside the big six, which means value is firmly on the side of backers on the Asian handicap.

Don't give up on Manchester City's ability to defy a -2.0 Asian handicap, despite their failure to do so in their opening home game of the season against Southampton.

The 3-2 scoreline in that match mirrored City's famous comeback win on the final day of last season against QPR, who are the visitors again on Saturday, but still the weight of form indicates City are a good bet to win by at least two goals.

City have at least covered an Asian handicap of -2.0 in 12 of their 15 games against teams outside the top six since the start of last season and have been outright handicap winners in nine out of 15. It is also notable that over 2.5 goals has occurred in 13 out of 15.

Pick of the Stats

Southampton v Manchester United
 United led the league for away clean sheets last season, including seven out of 10 against bottom-half teams

Recommended Bets
 Everton off -0 on Asian handicap v West Brom at 1.768/11
 Man City off -2.0 on Asian handicap v QPR at 2.01/1
 Man United clean sheet v Southampton at 2.6213/8