Czech Republic MotoGP: Pedrosa to give Lorenzo sleepless nights

Will Dani Pedrosa double your money on Sunday?

Trent Burton previews this weekend's Czech Republic MotoGP and believes that with Casey Stoner out injured, Dani Pedrosa is the man to push Jorge Lorenzo all the way...

And then there were two. The big news of this weekend's MotoGP round has been who's not here, rather than who is. Following a huge crash in qualifying in Indy last week, Casey Stoner essentialy destroyed his foot and ankle. He still rode in the race, recording a simply unbelievable fourth place, but that's where it will end.

Further examination sees Stoner on his way back to Australia for surgery which rules him out of the next few races at least and, more importantly, the championship. It was a clearly dejected Stoner who said as much himself in a press conference here on Thursday.

So what we're left with is a straight two man fight for the title between the Spaniards, Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa.

Lorenzo holds an 18 point advantage but for the first time in his career, Pedrosa looks up to the challenge. His win in Indy was dominant and Lorenzo could be seen to be lucky to have picked up a second following an engine failure for his teammate Ben Spies and Stoner fighting agony.

So far here in Brno Pedrosa has been giving Lorenzo more than enough to think about. Quickest in every session by a considerable margin is one thing, but it's his attitude and renewed self belief that's the biggest. I'd argue this is the best we've ever Pedrosa. I'd have him as a firm favourite this weekend despite the fact that he's never won here in MotoGP.

At 2.166/5 to win this weekend I see Pedrosa a solid chance to double your money.

But the market is slightly less convinced and is having difficulty splitting him and Lorenzo who's a narrow favourite at 2.1411/10. Brno is definitely a circuit that favours the smoother power delivery of the Yamaha over the Honda which should give Lorenzo the edge. But he's been a way behind Pedrosa on Friday and was fifth this morning as he logged very little track time, which is highly out of the ordinary for him. It will be a dogfight between he and the Repsol rider, it's nigh on impossible to see anyway else taking the win, but I don't think the closeness of the market is even close to accurately reflecting what we've seen so far here.

With Stoner out, the final position on the podium is much more wide open than normal. Form, and the market, would suggest Andrea Dovizioso, at 1.834/5 is the safe bet. The Tech 3 rider has five very impressive podiums to his name already this year and it would be to no-one's surprise if he racked up another on Sunday.

Ben Spies' horror season reached new levels of farce in Indy as his engine blew while in with a shot at victory. He's been well and truly on the pace here this weekend and logic would suggest the other factory Yamaha should complete the podium. But the more interesting market with Spies might be more, 'What will go wrong this weekend?' It would be a welcome relief to see him on the steps, but no surprise if he's not.

My pick for the final podium this weekend is Britain's own Cal Crutchlow. He's been at the centre of a lot of contract talks for next year this week and he's been quite outspoken, in typical Cal style, about the whole thing. In his mind, Dovi stole his Ducati ride for 2013, and he's not happy about it. In actual fact, he's furious. It's time he translated that anger and talk into a career first podium. He's been quick in practice, enjoys Brno, and at anything over 2.01/1 he's well worth a punt.

There's some talk of rain on Sunday morning but let's hope it holds off for the race. Brno has produced some championship changing races in the past and we're ready for another now, with Pedrosa set to give Lorenzo some sleepless nights over the summer break.

Recommended Bets

Back Dani Pedrosa for the win at 2.166/5

Back Cal Crutchlow for the Top 3 at 2.01/1 or better