понедельник, 27 августа 2012 г.

US Open Day 1 Tips: Falla to take down Klizan

Alejandro Falla - Sean's idea of first day value
Sean Calvert has been in blistering tipping form of late and he'll be here throughout the US Open to provide daily tips. So who does he fancy today?
Last week's outright tip on John Isner to win in Winston-Salem proved spot on and for the fourth straight tournament it was a visit to the payout counter for this column.
And now we head to New York for the final major of the season, the US Open which begins today and there are so many matches to choose from that it's tough to narrow it down.
Monday's schedule sees the likes of Andy Murray, Maria Sharapova, Roger Federer, Kim Clijsters and Victoria Azarenka take to the courts and Murray opens on Arthur Ashe at around 6pm UK time against Alex Bogomolov Jr.
As a former USA player, who came through the ranks in America, Bogomolov's decision to switch allegiances and represent Russia in Davis Cup won't go down well with the crowd, but in my experience the spectators at Flushing Meadows aren't exactly the most knowledgeable and the majority of them probably won't even know who he is.
He did stun Murray in Miami last spring, but Alex was in much better form then and he's been pretty awful in 2012 and it's hard to see anything other than a straight sets win for the Scot unless he produces an effort like the one against Jeremy Chardy in his last appearance.
At 1.021/50 for the win and 1.232/9 for the 3-0 win it's slim pickings on the outright betting, but it could pay to side with Scot -9.5 games on the handicap if you're betting on that match.
As usual on first round day there are lots of sub 1.101/10 shots around to back in multiples, but the one I fancy for a bit of outright value is Grand Slam wonder Alejandro Falla.
The Colombian rarely shows up for anything other than majors these days and his dodgy form of late can be overlooked, as he ups his game markedly in a Slam.
He's already beaten Mardy Fish, John Isner, Fabio Fognini and Nicolas Mahut in majors this year and took down Viktor Troicki in New York last year.
His opponent today on court 15, Martin Klizan is a fellow left hander but his record on hard courts is pretty awful, with just two wins in the main draw at tour level his whole career on hard. He's also won just one completed match in the main draw at a Slam.
He's only played New York once and that was in 2010 when he took four games from Juan Carlos Ferrero and he's barely been seen on the surface since.
Klizan appeared last week in Winston-Salem winning a bizarre match against the eccentric Benoit Paire and he more or less exclusively plies his trade on clay. At odds of 2.15n/a Falla represents a good opportunity to get off to a winning start this fortnight.
The women's draw has some pretty tight-looking encounters on offer today but the first match on court 8 at 4pm UK time between Anabel Medina Garrigues and Lucie Hradecka should offer some value at around 1.564/7.
The Spanish player should have beaten Sam Stosur in Cincy a couple of weeks ago, but choked from a comfortable winning position and she should have few such problems today against the limited Hradecka.
The Czech player is essentially here for the doubles, where she excels with Andrea Hlavackova and in singles she's lost 14 of her last 17 Grand Slam first round matches.
Since serving her way to a shock semi final on the blue clay of Madrid Lucie has won just one match in singles and is on a five match losing streak.
She's never won a singles match in the main draw in New York and the capable Spaniard should be too solid for her today.

Recommended Bets
Back Falla to beat Klizan at 2.15n/a
Back Medina Garrigues to beat Hlackova at 1.564/7
Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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