пятница, 31 августа 2012 г.

Lee Dixon: Arsenal will approach Liverpool trip with caution

Can Arsene's team put the ball in the net at Anfield?

Lee Dixon has fond memories of playing for Arsenal at Anfield but the current Gunners are yet to score. So does our man think Arsene Wenger's men can make the breakthrough against a rejuvenated Liverpool?

Liverpool v Arsenal

Both teams drew their matches last weekend but there will have been very different reactions in the respective dressing rooms.

Pushing the champions as close as Liverpool did - twice going a goal up on Manchester City - will give Brendan Rodgers all sorts of positives to take into this clash.

But on one hand, it can be argued that a game against the champions was ideal for Liverpool. After going down at West Brom, another fixture against middling Premier League opponents could have been even more stressful than meeting one of the big guns. As a player you want those big games, and there's almost nothing to lose if you're defeated by the champions.

That's not to take anything away from Liverpool, however, they were impressive and it was a good reaction to what was a dispiriting opening day defeat.

Compared to that, a 0-0 at Stoke isn't quite so inspirational, but two clean sheets in the first two games is not to be sniffed at. I mentioned last week that Steve Bould had been working on set pieces and his influence is clearly growing on the Gunners' defensive unit. I've been saying for the last two or three years that Steve should have been knocking on Arsene's door to work with the first team. He has finally got his chance and I'm sure Arsene has already seen a difference in training.

The back four that Steve and I were a part of was very well organised and he played a big part in that. We'd gauge our success on how many clean sheets we got, and as many of you know, we weren't too bad at that. The current unit has certainly given the opposition the odd chance in the first two games, but results don't lie and there clearly seems to be a new found resilience there.

That may influence Arsene Wenger's thinking for this Sunday lunchtime test. He is not a defensive minded manager and I have been critical of him in the past for being so focused on attack, but he may tweak that approach as the new personnel upfront aren't quite clicking yet.

Santi Carzola looks the pick of the new boys. Whereas Lukas Podolski has shown the odd flash and Oliver Giroud is in desperate need of a goal, the Spaniard has been positive, always searching for the ball and making telling passes. If Arsenal get anything from this, he'll be a key man, with Abou Diaby and Mikel Arteta adding steel to the midfield.

It's not been in the Arsenal makeup to play defensively and, while I don't think Wenger will leave his attacking philosophies at the Shankly Gates, I don't see the visitors going full bore in search of a win.

All three results look possible at Anfield but there's plenty of juice in the draw price of 3.613/5 for me, and that's where I see the value. The market can't split over/under 2.5 goals, but I feel that if anything this will be on the low scoring side, so unders it is.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 3.613/5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9720/21

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

I agree completely with Lee. Low-scoring, and a draw a distinct possibility too. So how about another 0-0? Arsenal have had two goalless draws in a row, and although Liverpool’s games have seen many more goals, I think this match might be one of those where neither side truly takes the initiative. A third consecutive 0-0 draw would be highly unusual for Arsene Wenger’s side, but they recorded four in a row a while back, so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility, and is available to back for [13.0].

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

There were fewer goals witnessed at Anfield last season than any other Premier League ground and, with games involving Arsenal resulting in zero goals so far this season, I think it's fair to expect a low scorer. Even though the last goalless draw between these two was in 1999 - they have met 26 times in the league since then. I think Lee is on the right track with his under 2.5 goals prediction and [2.0] seems a fair price.

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