Challenge Cup Betting: Wire are worth favs but look out for drop goal

Will Lee Briers help Stuart land his bet?

Stuart Jones believes that a depleted Leeds team will struggle to keep out a rampant Warrington at Wembley on Saturday. Our man is recommending a bet on a drop goal in the match...

Leeds and Warrington go head-to-head at Wembley on Saturday with both teams desperate to get their hands on the Carnegie Challenge Cup.

The Rhinos have endured heartache on their last five appearances in the showpiece event, including suffering a humbling 30-8 defeat at the hands of Saturday's opposition in 2010, and the Wolves will start as heavy favourites.

It's well documented how big a loss Danny McGuire is to this Leeds side, and though Rob Burrow is expected to return to Brian McDermott's starting line-up, the loss of their most creative player is not one I expect Leeds to be able to overcome, not up against a full-strength Wire side anyway.

I was surprised to see Tony Smith make so many changes to his side for the London game last week given that they had performed brilliantly to close the gap on Wigan to just a point a fortnight ago, but that does mean that several key players will have benefited from a week off, and it also just shows how selective Smith is in the games he wants his team to peak for. That defeat put paid to any realistic chance of topping the league table.

Warrington are asked to give up 8.5 points on the main Betfair handicap and, whilst I do expect the Wolves to come out on top, winning by in excess of that margin is a big ask when so much is at stake, especially against a side with Leeds's big-game pedigree.

Specials markets crop up all over the place for the top games like this, and though they often represent very little value, the one bet I am again interested in is that there will be a drop goal during the 80 mins.

Kevin Sinfield has already knocked over four one pointers this season, while Lee Briers has a couple to his name, and hooker Michael Monaghan has shown he is more than capable of slotting over a drop goal if required.

The key point is the mentality of those players about using the one pointer compared to the norm. Most teams only resort to a d-g when the scores are tied or within one score. That isn't the case with Briers or Sinfield, both more than willing to use it as a way to pull further clear of a side, or a way to run down the clock.

It's hard to see either team getting away in this, so I am very keen on taking the 3.55/2 available for either side to take a drop goal in 80 minutes.

Recommended Bets
 Back a drop goal during 80 mins @ 3.55/2