Yards Per Play Betting – Using Yards Per Play Rankings

Using Yards Per Play Rankings

Football betting punters should learn to evolve betting strategies to get ahead of bookmakers in the NFL. One way of doing this is to place close attention to Schedule changes and to use yards per play rankings to exploit discrepancies in Handicap markets.

The NFL has always seen a gulf in quality between the best and worst franchises. Since the scheduling rule changes in 2002 dictated that only two games per year would be based on a team’s record from the preceding year, the number of mismatched fixtures has increased, resulting in the bad teams losing regularly, and the good teams winning more often.

So what does this mean for punters betting on the NFL? This article sets out to explain how to use yards per play rankings from last seasons NFL to your advantage in 2012/13.

Using Yards Per Play Rankings To Your Advantage

With the emergence of big mismatches, there are now more profitable opportunities to change betting strategies and do what is often unthinkable – back the quality team as large favourites.

One way to evaluate a team is to look at its offensive yards gained per play and the defensive yards allowed per play. As you would expect, the teams that gain more yards than they allow, tend to win more than they lose.

While this rule isn’t exclusively accurate, it is as good a predictor of future performance, as past head-to-head results.

The table below shows yardage data from the 2011 NFL season for each franchise competing in the 2012 NFL season. By calculating the yardage difference between offensive and defensive yards per play (Y/P) for each franchise, will give you a solid base for predicting results.

By looking at the table it is clear to see that the four worst teams in terms of yardage per play differential in 2011 were the St Louis Rams (-1.1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) and the Indianapolis Colts (-0.8), neither of which qualified for the playoffs.

In comparison the four best teams by yardage per play differential were the Pittsburgh Steelers (1.4), Houston Texans (0.9), New Orleans Saints (0.9) and the Philadelphia Eagles (0.9). All teams qualified for the playoffs bar the Philadelphia Eagles who won eight but also lost eight.

Betting odds can often fail to reflect the difference between the elite teams and the teams that struggle.

While the results are not surprising, a yardage differential can be used to analyse matches between two teams. There is a simple rule that is used by sharp bettors using the NFL yardage differential to calculate a betting advantage - each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point on the handicap market.

Using Yards Per Play To Calculate Handicap Discrepancies

By using the 2011 stats above we can examine the 2012 NFL week 1 match between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos.

By looking at the table from last year, the Steelers have a yards per play differential of +1.4, while the Broncos’ net differential was 0.4. The difference between the two franchises was 1, so by dividing this number by 0.15 suggests the Steelers should be around a 7 point favourite on a neutral field.

However, the Steelers are actually offered at -1 1.962*, while at home the Broncos are offered at +1 1.962*. The handicap odds offered with Pinnacle Sports suggest the teams are much closer than the yardage per play calculation would suggest.

With this said, as with all tools for evaluating teams, this calculation is best used in conjunction with other handicapping methods. Many statistical methods become far more viable after 4-6 games at which point the 2012 data could be analysed.

It is also vital to gather as much knowledge on betting variables to accompany your yards per play calculations such as preseason results, what players have drafted to which team, and which players are sidelined through injury.

These betting variables coupled with the yards per play calculation will give you the best chance to work out any NFL handicap discrepancies. Pinnacle Sports offer the best online odds for all 2012 NFL fixtures.

By Michael Gales

*Odds subject to change