Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Three for the mud at Catterick and Carlisle

The rain has fallen heavily in the north
Timeform's Martin Dixon has waded through the form at these two rain-soaked northern tracks to pick out three recommended bets...
Just as the weather looked to have turned the corner, the rain has come again in bucket loads, in the North at least, and that means we're racing in the mud at Carlisle and Catterick this afternoon.
This could be crucial in the sprints in particular, as at both these tracks the fields tend to come stand-side in the straight on soft/heavy ground, changing the effect of the draw. My advice: opt for higher drawn horses in 5f/6f races, leading us nicely on to a couple of today's bets.
I'm taking a bit of a risk backing Commanche in Carlisle's 15:00, as in three starts so far this year he hasn't fully fired, but I'm hoping that a 51-day break will have had a positive effect, and stall 11 (of 11) could well ensure he gets an optimum position. Bryan Smart's inmate has form on testing ground and boasts 2-y-o form that makes him look well treated off 66.
Ingenti is a filly that's caught my eye recently, looking as if she's working her way back to peak form with placed efforts the last twice, and in Catterick's 17:45 she looks to have been found a weak race to gain a second career win. Most of her form is on quicker ground, but she's shaped with sufficient promise a couple of times on soft to suggest she handles the mud, and it's a plus that her small yard have had a recent winner.
Red Orator is another that I'm backing this afternoon in the 3:30 at Carlisle. Mark Johnston's 3-y-o is hard to assess after just two runs but his pedigree suggests that he should appreciate a thorough test of stamina and be better than a mark in the low 70s (his dam won the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak over 15.5f).

Recommended Bets
Back Commanche @ 6.25/1 in the 15:00 at Carlisle
Back Ingenti @ 9.08/1 in the 17:45 at Catterick
Back Red Orator @ 6.05/1 in the 15:30 at Carlisle