England v South Africa 3rd ODI: Bell the only bright spot for England

Graeme Smith could bring back Dale Steyn
BB cricket tipster Ed Hawkins is worried about England's confidence after a chaotic few days and South Africa should take advantage in game three at The Oval on Friday, says the SJA Betting Writer of the Year.
England
To lose one world no.1 ranking in a summer could be considered careless. But two? English cricket has surely never had such a tumultuous few weeks. The Kevin Pietersen saga, followed by the resignation of Andrew Strauss, has prompted a prolonged spell of navel gazing.
Indeed, so much so that the eye has been taken from the ball. English cricketers are a vulnerable, confused bunch at present and that much was evident in an 80-run defeat by South Africa, which knocked them from their perch, in Southampton.
Unbelievably, it gets worse for England. Graeme Swann has been rested for the rest of the series. For 'rested' read 'injured'. His troublesome elbow still concerns the selectors and James Tredwell, who took two wickets in his previous ODI, comes in as replacement.
South Africa
South Africa didn't even need Dale Steyn to take a lead but it would be foolish in the extreme not to bring him back to consolidate their advantage. Neither Morne Morkel nor Wayne Parnell bowled their allotted overs. Morkel went for more than five an over and he looks most vulnerable as Parnell offers ability with the bat.
Venue and conditions
The average first-innings score at The Oval in the last 10 ODIs is 260, a figure which lends itself to the notion that this is a heaven-sent batting strip. But it is not quite as good as many would make out. No side has passed more than 251 in the last five matches. One side has breached 300 - that being England against India in 2007, and they still lost.
There is a mini toss bias to be aware of but it should not impact on one's thinking. From 21 matches, 13 have been won by the side batting last but when we filter that to day-night matches only, a different picture emerges. In the five most recent ODI floodlit affairs, four have been won by the side batting first.
Match odds
We like the look of South Africa at 1.774/5 and are of the opinion that they have not shortened enough following England's listless effort in Southampton.
There were only a couple of times when the home side traded as favourites and they could find themselves struggling once again to keep pace with South Africa's fast starters on a wicket which will not aid their bowlers.
England are 2.285/4 to level the series at 1-1 but we do not want to get involved. Shorn of Swann, and Stuart Broad, for that matter, they are looking around for class acts and have found the cupboard bare. A Nos 6-7-8 axis of Kieswetter-Patel-Bresnan does not fill a punter with confidence, either. South Africa have yet to win at The Oval over the last 10 years and now could be their time.
Top England batsman
No batsman has scored more runs on this ground than Ian Bell in the last five years. It is proof that the wicket favours the shot-makers (Ravi Bopara is second). Bell has 331 runs from seven innings at an average of 47 and given that he showed good touch at the Rose Bowl with 45 from 41 balls, he could be worth following at around 4.507/2.
Top South Africa batsman
Hashim Amla blasted just the 150 last time out. The man's a machine. He should like The Oval, too. Don't forget he made an unbeaten 311 there earlier in the summer. He will go off at around 3.505/2.
Recommended bet
I Bell top England batsman at 4.507/2