Betfair Live Video: Expect a Benfica stroll as they continue to set the pace

Lima has continued to impress this season

Lewis Watson previews two Portuguese Primeira Liga matches being streamed live this Saturday on Betfair Live Video...

Benfica vs Boavista
Saturday 17:00

After seeing Porto drop three points on their trip to Maritimo last Sunday, Benfica went into Monday's match at Pacos with a chance to stretch their lead at the Primeira summit to nine points. However, due to a 90th minute Oliveira penalty, the hosts suffered only their second defeat of the season leaving the chasing pack licking their lips at the prospect of a weaknesses in the armoury of the leagues top two.

Boavista are this weekends challengers, and after a seemingly 'black and white' season, their total lack of consistency has left them floating at the top of the bottom third of the table for some weeks.  With six wins and eleven defeats, Teixeira's side have struggled for form since their re-induction back into the league after a six year absence, but now with their legal disputes behind them 'As Panteras' will be craving a return to the glory years.

Despite last weekends stumble, Benfica are in fantastic league form dropping only eight points all season, and without an over reliance on one player Jorge Jesus' side has an impressive balance to it not seen in previous seasons. 

Saying this, once again Lima has proved a real catalyst for the side's good form turning in performance after performance in his role supporting the ever-changing strike force. With six goals this campaign, the Brazilian has once again confirmed his place as one of the first names on Jorge Jesus' team-sheet with his side going for back-to-back titles for the first time in 24 years.

Expect the hosts to spring back to life after Monday's disappointment with a competent performance against an out of depth Boavista. With just one victory away from the Estadio do Bessa this campaign the visitors to the Estadio da Luz with very little ambition, with a goalless draw the best possible outcome. 

Back a Saturday stroll for the reigning Champions, with a victory by three or four looking likely.

Recommended Bets:
Back Benfica to win 3-0 @ 7.06/1
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.68/13

Penafiel vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Saturday 20:15

With their sights firmly set on sneaking into the top three spots, Vitoria Guimaraes come to Penafiel looking to inflict yet more pain on the host's defence adding to their 35 goals already conceded this campaign. Sitting second from bottom with only twelve points to their name, Rui Quinta's newly-promoted side have struggled to adapt to life with the big-boys, with Vitoria proving their worth as one of the biggest...

Within reach of Sporting and Porto at the top of this year's Primeira, Vitoria will arrive at the Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril hoping to once again close the gap on the usual suspects at the top.  After winning five matches back-to-back in October and November, Vitoria have hit a bumpy patch of form in recent weeks that has left them hovering in an unchallenged fourth spot. 

Despite winning ten of their eighteen league games thus far, Rui Vitoria's side have become a victim of their own success with disappointment being aired after dropping two points in their last home fixture to Gil Vicente, and now with a favourable run of fixtures, 'Os Vimaranenses' will be expecting the pressure to be applied once again on those above them...

In terms of stand out performances, 25-year-old Andre Andre can't be overlooked with his contributions so far this season. With nine goals to his name, the midfielder has played in all but one game this season, and although six have come from the penalty spot, the Portuguese play-maker has proved a real driving force behind Vitoria's success so far this year.

Penafiel are win-less since mid-December, and with their defence fortunes not looking to change any time soon expect the visitors to find the net on Saturday evening. If the host's can sneak the first goal they may well be in with a chance of stealing a point, however a professional outing from Vitoria should be enough to see them leave with all three points.

Recommended Bets:
Back Vitoria to win @ 1.855/6
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.695/7

Opta Stats: Arsenal v Aston Villa

Can Alexis Sanchez inspire Arsenal to victory over Aston Villa?

Two famous old sides at opposite ends of the table meet when Arsenal host Aston Villa. Opta serves up a side dish of stats.

Danny Welbeck has scored four goals in his last three Premier League starts against Aston Villa. With Welbeck injured, Villa are 10.09/1 to keep a clean sheet.

Christian Benteke has scored three goals in four Premier League appearances against Arsenal. Benteke is 4.57/2 to find the net.

Chelsea and Man Utd (12 each) are the only visiting team to have earned more points at the Emirates
Stadium than Aston Villa (11) in the Barclays Premier League (W3 D2 L3). You can lay Arsenal at 1.330/100.

Arsenal have scored five goals in their last two Premier League games against Villa, all between the 32nd and 36th minutes. They are 1.654/6 to be leading by half-time.

The Gunners haven't managed to win three Premier League games in a row this season. A draw is 6.25/1.

Aston Villa have gone eight hours and 42 minutes of Premier League football since they last scored. Arsenal are 1.784/5 to keep a clean sheet.

Currently on a run of five games without a goal, the Villains have never gone six league games in a row without scoring in their history. Villa are 2.1411/10 to score.

Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in his last five Premier League appearances. Giroud is 1.758/11 to score.

Only Derby (10 in 2007-08) have scored fewer goals after 22 matches of a Premier League season than Aston Villa have managed this campaign (11). Under 2.5 goals is 2.3211/8.

Aston Villa have fired in just 60 shots on target this season, fewer than any other team in the division. Under 1.5 goals is 4.84/1.

Who are the Premier League Golden Boot Contenders?

Could Charlie Austin lift the Golden Boot?

We are closing into the home stretch of the Premier League season but who are in the mix to lift the Golden Boot trophy?

With 16 games left in the Premier League season, the race for the Golden Boot this year has got a fresh look to it.

Unless two-time winner Robin van Persie suddenly hits a spectacular vein of form, we will have a new winner at the end of the season.

Diego Costa is in pole position but the challengers are within range. It appears to be down to a five-horse race and here they are.

Diego Costa - Goals: 17

Chelsea's big-money summer singing has continued where he left off at Atletico Madrid by scoring goals for fun. The Spain international has helped himself to 17 Premier League goals in just 19 appearances.

Costa looks like he was built to play football in England. His burly, physical style and deadly finishing is a throwback to the good old days - as is his tendency to get involved in some extra-curricular activity on the field.

His well-publicised hamstring issues notwithstanding, Costa is holding the aces as he spearheads the attack for the champions-elect.

Sergio Aguero - Goals: 14

It seems like all we've done this season is discuss Costa's hamstrings and yet it was Aguero that managed to miss a chunk of the season with injury.

Before his setback, the Man City striker was in devastating goalscoring form. He helped himself to four against Tottenham in October and looked set to go on and claim the Golden Boot he has perhaps surprisingly yet to win since arriving in England four years ago.

After missing the festive period, Aguero is now back and his presence and form will dictate whether Manuel Pellegrini's team can retain their title.

Charlie Austin - Goals: 13

What a revelation the QPR centre forward has been this season. How pleasing too for Roy Hodgson to see Austin leading a charge of three young English strikers amongst the top ten goalscorers at this stage of the season (Saido Berahino and Harry Kane joining Austin).

Austin's tally is all the more impressive given QPR's current league position. If the Loftus Road side can begin to move clear of the relegation zone in the latter half of the season then there is nothing to suggest Austin won't be scoring the goals to keep pace with the big names in the Golden Boot race.

With Euro 2016 qualification well and truly in hand for Hodgson's Three Lions, England recognition surely awaits.

Alexis Sanchez - Goals: 12

Like Costa, Arsenal's marquee summer capture has taken to life in the Premier League in stunning fashion. The former Barcelona winger has been so impressive since arriving in north London that it poses the question of why he was rather under-utilised by the Catalans.

Sanchez is a star in his own right and he has been the pivotal figure in anything positive achieved by Arsene Wenger's side this season.

It hasn't been plain sailing for the Gunners but with the likes of Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott and Mesut Ozil now back playing, Arsenal have a chance to really push on.

The Gunners may be capable of overhauling Manchester United and Southampton to finish 'best of the rest' behind the front two and if they do, Sanchez will continue to score.

Wilfried Bony - Goals: 9

His January move to Manchester City means that Bony just squeezes onto our list.

He's eight behind Costa in the current pecking order but joining the ranks at the Etihad gives him a squeak of catching up.

Bony looks to be the perfect physical foil to compliment Aguero and given the hit and miss nature of City's other strikers, the new boy will likely go straight into the team when he returns from African Nations duty with Ivory Coast.

By now, we are all aware that no striker scored more Premier League gaols in the calendar year of 2014 than Bony managed for Swansea.

With Aguero as a partner and compatriot Yaya Toure joining David Silva and Samir Nasri in carving out the chances, the good times are set to continue for Bony.

Australian Open Women's Betting: Williams and Sharapova to set up showdown

Are the world's top two set to meet in another Grand Slam final?

We're down to the last four in Melbourne as Abelson Info make their predictions for the finalists of the Australian Open 2015...

World number one Serena Williams wasted little time in making her first semi-final here since winning the title in 2010, as she defeated Dominika Cibulkova in just over an hour.

Williams crashed 15 aces and 31 winners past her Slovakian rival, and if there were any doubts about her form after being pushed all the way by Svitolina and Muguruza in previous rounds, the American answered her critics in emphatic fashion.

Cibulkova conceded that the top seed "didn't give me any time to breathe on the court", and that is something that teenage star Madison Keys will have to deal with on Thursday.

Keys has had a sensational breakthrough tournament in Melbourne this year, and after dispatching of Venus Williams last time out, she will be looking for the biggest scalp of all in her next match.

The 19-year-old is rightly considered one of the most promising rising stars on the WTA tour, and she took another step closer to fulfilling a dream after coming through a gruelling three-set match against her compatriot.

Although she suffered from a dip in the second set against Venus, she ensured that the momentum swung back in her favour in the third as she closed the match out and secured her spot in her maiden Grand Slam semi-final.

With Williams and Kvitova now behind her, Keys will have to figure out a plan to overcome Serena and she will have some wise words in her corner given that former world number one Lindsay Davenport has been coaching her since the off-season.

Keys has never played Williams before, and although we believe that she has the game to compete with her fellow American she is prone to a slight dip in her consistency and that is when Williams will take over.

If Keys can control her emotions and maintain her accuracy then an upset is certainly possible, but it is a lot to ask with Williams staring you down from the other end of the court.

As a result, back Williams to prevail with value in the set betting and games market.

In the other semi-final, our tournament tip Maria Sharapova is still going strong and we will keep faith in her as she prepares to take on Ekaterina Makarova.

Makarova has had a brilliant run in this tournament, with the icing on the cake so far being her comfortable straight sets win over Simona Halep last time out.

The Russian ace hasn't even lost a single set yet, but that record will be thoroughly tested by Sharapova who looks to be in great form and has won all five of their previous meetings, the last four coming in straight sets.

Having produced an impressive performance against Bouchard in the last round, we expect the second seed to prevail and set up a clash with a familiar foe in Saturday's final.

Recommended Bets
Back S Williams -5.5 Games vs Keys @ 1.9210/11
Back Over 20.5 Games in Makarova vs Sharapova @ 1.9420/21

***

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Premier League: A ban wouldn't Costa lot for Chelsea

Diego Costa has scored 17 goals in 19 Premier League starts

A Diego Costa suspension for his conduct against Liverpool won't hurt Chelsea's chances of beating Man City...

There is speculation that Diego Costa will receive a retrospective ban for getting stampy with Martin Skrtel and Emre Can during Chelsea's Capital One Cup semi-final second leg tie with Liverpool, ruling him out of Saturday's Premier League clash with Man City.

All will depend on what referee Michael Oliver tells the FA. If he confirms that neither he nor any of his assistants witnessed the incidents then the governing body will have the authority to impose a suspension on the Premier League's leading goalscorer.

The belief is that the officials were hoodwinked, meaning that there is a sizable chance of the Brazilian-turned-Spaniard being punished, and perhaps inspiring punters to conclude that 4.03/1 is an attractive price on Man City prevailing at Stamford Bridge.

However, if you are of the mindset that Chelsea with Costa would beat the champions, the statistics suggest that you should retain faith in them at 2.0811/10 even if their star striker is absent.

The Blues actually have a better win rate without the 26-year-old starting than they do with him, triumphing six times in eight games when he has been sidelined (75%) compared to 19 times in 27 with him in the XI (70%). They hadn't lost without him prior to the freak FA Cup exit to Bradford.

Of course, the natural reaction to such figures is to suggest that they are skewed: the majority of times that Costa hasn't started, it has been because they were facing inferior opposition and were confident that they wouldn't need him.

The three Premier League fixtures that he missed serve as a strong counterargument to that point though.

There was a 3-0 stroll past Tottenham (who they lost to 1-5 with Costa), a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw at Man United which would have been a victory if not for a loss of composure deep into injury time. Didier Drogba scored that day, as he did in his other Premier League start since returning.

Other reasons for Chelsea fans to be optimistic include their perfect ten-from-ten home league record this season, Man City's three-match winless streak and the fact that Manuel Pellegrini's side have claimed a mere point from their past four trips to Stamford Bridge.

Transfer Talk: Arsenal in shock swoop for Italian 20 year-old?

Arsene Wenger is eyeing up yet another central defender

Could Arsene Wenger really be tracking yet another central defender?

Arsenal are considering a move to sign highly-rated Empoli defender Daniele Rugani, according to Talksport.

The 20-year-old has caught the eye of several top European scouts this term, with some impressive displays for his club - who currently sit two places outside of the relegation zone in Serie A.

Even though the Gunners are all set to sign Villarreal centre-back Gabriel Paulista, Arsene Wenger wants to further bolster his defensive ranks.

It's a deal that is more likely to happen in the summer window, but Arsenal will then face competition from Real Madrid for the signature of a player who is co-owned by Empoli and Juventus.

Manchester United are believed to be seeking 10million for Wilfried Zaha, with Crystal Palace looking to re-sign their former star.

The 22-year-old has struggled to make an impact at Old Trafford, since joining United in the summer of 2013, and SportinStorm.com understands a permanent switch Selhurst Park is on the cards.

Zaha has been on loan at Palace since the end of August and new Eagles boss Alan Pardew is keen to thrash out a deal to sign him as soon as possible.

But although Zaha himself is keen, the transfer fee remains a stumbling block. Palace are reportedly offering 6million, to be paid in instalments, but United want closer to 10million.

A further round of talks between the two clubs is expected to take place before the weekend.

Meanwhile, Roberto Martinez has warned the Everton fans that he may not sign a replacement for Samuel Eto'o in the current transfer window.

The veteran Cameroon frontman left Goodison Park for Sampdoria this week, having only joined the Blues last summer.

The departure of the former Chelsea man means Martinez is short of striking options, but the Everton boss told the Liverpool Echo that he is unlikely to find a solution before Monday's deadline.

The Spaniard stated: "If you want to rely on January to find solutions for your season then it is a big gamble, but we will carry on working."

Finally, West Brom boss Tony Pulis is considered a pre-deadline swoop for West Ham winger Matt Jarvis, according to the Daily Mail.

The England international, although impressing last season, has struggled for regular first-team action at Upton Park this term.

In fact, he's made just one start in the Premier League for the Hammers and just five appearances in all competitions. Championship club Cardiff are also keen on the former Wolves man.

Chelsea v Liverpool: Wounded Blues to make a flying start in cup cracker

Jose Mourinho was far from impressed by defeat to Bradford

Old rivals Chelsea and Liverpool are set to do battle once again, and there's a trip to Wembley at stake. Kevin Hatchard expects goals, and a strong start for the hosts...

Chelsea v Liverpool
Tuesday January 27, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

Jose Mourinho described Saturday's FA Cup debacle against Bradford City as the worst defeat of his managerial career, after the Bantams came away from Stamford Bridge with a 4-2 comeback win that left the football world wide-eyed with disbelief. Mourinho said his side should be ashamed and embarrassed by a performance that saw the west Londoners let slip a 2-0 lead at home to a side from the third tier of English football.

You could argue that Saturday's defeat will spark some anxiety in the Chelsea camp ahead of this clash with Liverpool, especially after the Blues were outplayed at Anfield in a 1-1 first-leg draw. However, I would suggest that the pain of that FA Cup exit will sharpen minds at Stamford Bridge, and Liverpool could feel the force of a backlash.

Mourinho left some fearsome players out of his starting line-up against Bradford, and Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, Nemanja Matic, Cesc Fabregas, John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic are all expected to return. It's also worth remembering that Chelsea are generally very strong at Stamford Bridge - Mourinho's men have won all ten of their Premier League home matches, and they have beaten all comers in all competitions apart from Bradford and Schalke (you don't see those two in the same sentence very often).

Chelsea created very little in the first leg, but this was always the endgame for Mourinho - get a positive result of some kind in the Anfield cauldron, and then finish the job in the capital. Part One of that strategy has been completed, and the market expects Part Two to be a success, with Chelsea 1.341/3 To Qualify and 1.654/6 to win the second leg in 90 minutes.

Liverpool

After a fragile start to the campaign, Liverpool have slowly but surely got their act together. Boss Brendan Rodgers has found a 3-4-3 formation that is suiting the players at his disposal, and the result has been a 10-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Electrifying forward Raheem Sterling has played his way back into form (his goal in the first leg was sensational), and young summer signings Lazar Markovic and Emre Can are finally settling down.

This is all fine and dandy, but I can't help feeling that Liverpool may have already squandered their best chance of reaching the final. They missed some excellent opportunities to carve out a lead to take into this second leg, and those failures may return to haunt them. 

There's absolutely no doubt that Liverpool's performance level has improved significantly in the last couple of months, and they played some scintillating football against Chelsea last week, with impish playmaker Philippe Coutinho particularly sparkling. However, if you scratch beneath the surface of that 10-match unbeaten sequence, it's not quite as impressive as you might think. 

Four of the games have been draws, and the highest-ranked team Liverpool have beaten is Swansea, who are ninth in the Premier League. Two of the wins came against lower division opposition, while the other three were against Sunderland, Aston Villa and Burnley, who are all in the Premier League's bottom six.

Liverpool have been denied the talents of striker Daniel Sturridge for most of the campaign, but he has returned to training and could even be on the bench. It's thought Rodgers could field the same line-up that he used in the first leg, having rested a number of key players in Saturday's goalless FA Cup draw with Bolton.

Match Odds

I'm expecting this to be close, but Chelsea are wounded and have some stellar performers who are rested and raring to go. The Blues haven't lost to Liverpool since Brendan Rodgers took charge, and they have beaten the Merseysiders in three of the clubs' last four meetings.

I doubt Liverpool will be able to control this game in the same way as they did at Anfield, and that three-man defence will be sorely tested. Liverpool's Brazilian disruptor Lucas has been in fine form, and his role screening the defence will be crucial.

Chelsea's price of 1.664/6 is probably about right given their home record and their recent successes against Liverpool, but I think it's a bit short for me to recommend.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market expects goals, with overs trading at 1.875/6. I think much could depend on who gets the opening goal. If Liverpool get their noses in front, it could open the game right up. If Chelsea score the opener, they may try to shut things down. 

Games between these two sides have produced plenty of goals in recent seasons. In the last eight meetings, five have produced three goals or more.

Liverpool have scored at least once in 15 of their last 18 games, and both teams have scored in seven of their last eight games against Chelsea. Regardless of the result, I think Liverpool could well grab a goal, and I like the look of backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.910/11.

Half Time

Chelsea will be keen to wash off the stain of that Bradford defeat as quickly as possible, and I think they will fly at Liverpool in the opening exchanges. In six of the clubs' last eight encounters, Chelsea have led at half-time, and in the 34 games they have played this term in all competitions, they have had the half-time advantage in 21. At Stamford Bridge that figure is 12 out of 16.

Based on those numbers, I would suggest that Chelsea are a touch overpriced in the Half Time market at 2.265/4.

Recommended Bets
Back Both Teams to Score at 1.910/11
Back Chelsea in the Half Time market at 2.265/4

Opta Stats: Sunderland v Burnley

Can Danny Ings carry on scoring for Burnley when they face Sunderland?

Only goal difference separates Sunderland and Burnley as both hover just above the relegation zone. Opta provides the statistical analysis.

Sunderland have won just one of their last 12 Premier League matches (W1 D6 L5). The draw is 3.412/5.

Burnley have only won two of their 29 Barclays Premier League away matches (W2 D5 L22). Sunderland are 2.245/4 to win.

The Clarets have only kept one clean sheet in those 28 Premier League matches and conceded two or more in 23 of them. Over 2.5 goals is 2.3211/8.

Burnley have won just one of the last 13 matches in all competitions against Sunderland (W1 D6 L6). Sunderland are 1.558/15 in the Draw No Bet market.

Burnley have conceded the most headed goals in the Premier League (11). Connor Wickham is 3.55/2 to score.

Danny Ings has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances. Ings is 3.39/4 to find the net.

The Clarets have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 Premier League matches. Over 3.5 goals is 4.3100/30.

In Premier League history only David Beckham (15), Gianfranco Zola and Thierry Henry (both 12) have scored more free kicks than Sebastian Larsson (11). Larsson is likely to be priced at around 6.5n/a to score.

Ashley Barnes has scored four goals from just six shots on target in the Premier League. Barnes is 3.55/2 to find the net.

Australian Open 2015 Men's Betting: Djokovic and Wawrinka set for another long Melbourne battle

Who will win when Djokovic and Wawrinka go head-to-head?

Novak Djokovic takes on Stan Wawrinka in the semi finals of the Australian Open on Friday and tennis expert Sean Calvert brings us his best bets in this clash of the former champions...

We're down to three in the 2015 Australian Open Men's Singles and although my second outright pick of Tomas Berdych fell in the semis he still made for a nice back-to-lay wager.

And it was a very comfortable winning day for those who were on my recommended wager of Thursday when Andy Murray cruised past Berdych 15-5 in the most aces market at a tasty 2.3811/8.

That bet was rarely in danger from the first Murray service game and it puts us back in profit on the match bets for the tournament even after half a dozen five set losses.

The second semi final between Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka begins at 08:30 UK time on Friday and it's an eagerly awaited rematch of their quarter final here last year that Stan won 9-7 in the fifth.

The head-to-head is overwhelmingly in favour of Djokovic, with a 19-3 record in all matches and 16-3 in competitive ones, but that doesn't tell anything like the full story, with their last three meetings in grand slams going to a full five sets.

Wawrinka is a different player to the one Djokovic faced in many of those earlier meetings and the Swiss is coming into his best form again at the right time after an impressive win over Kei Nishikori in the quarter finals.

If Wawrinka can serve as well as that again he has every chance of causing another upset or at least making Djokovic work very hard to get over the line and the over 36.5 total games looks likely here at around 1.804/5.

Stan has the knowledge that he can beat Nole over five sets at a major now and although the more likely occurrence is that the Serb will edge this one he hasn't looked exactly stable in his matches until he's got control.

He should have lost the opening set to Fernando Verdasco and he was chuntering away at himself in the early stages of the Gilles Muller and Milos Raonic matches too.

The world number one was never likely to lose any of those matches, but he could lose this one and if Stan starts quickly and gets that serve and heavily hit ground strokes firing it could be a tough old night for Djokovic.

It's not going to be overly warm or windy during the time this match is due to play and the lack of strong wind should help the shot maker go for the lines a bit more, but Wawrinka needs to be on his very best form to grab the win.

A more likely outcome for me is for Djokovic to sneak this one 3-2 at 7.5n/a and that looks one worth considering for back-to-lay punters, but over 36.5 total games seems very good indeed.

Recommended Bets
Back over 36.5 total games at 1.804/5
Back to lay Djokovic to win 3-2 at 7.5n/a

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Australian Open 2015 P&L

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 13.50

Brentford v Middlesbrough: Underrated Bees the value in tight clash

Mark Warburton's men have not been given due credit by the market for their exploits this season

Andy Tongue thinks the unfashionable outfit from West London can provide us with some profit in the second televised Championship match of the weekend...

Brentford v Middlesbrough
Saturday 31 January
Live on Sky Sports 1
12:15

Brentford

The Bees have probably been the surprise package of the season so far in the Championship and three wins on the spin have moved them back up into fourth place, just two points off top spot. Each of those victories has been by a single goal but there was plenty of merit in last Saturday's 2-1 triumph at Norwich where impressive midfielder Alex Pritchard, on-loan from Spurs, netted a second-half winner from the penalty spot.

Mark Warburton's side have been in great form at Griffin Park, winning eight of their 13 games with just two defeats. They've not drawn a game since October and despite a few losses (three on the run prior to this winning streak, although one of those was in the FA Cup) their ability to win tight games has ensured they are right up with the leaders as we reach the end of January.

Defensively they've been sound recently, conceding just one goal in those three wins, while Spanish midfielder Jose Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo offers a goalscoring threat from midfield to complement top scorer Andre Gray, who has hit the target 10 times so far. Warburton has benefitted from fielding a settled team in recent times and is unlikely to make any changes to the side which won at Carrow Road for this clash.

Middlesbrough

Boro showed the footballing public who don't follow the Championship what they could do last week with that famous FA Cup triumph away to Manchester City. Aitor Karanka's men soaked up plenty of first-half pressure with keeper Thomas Mejias in outstanding form then struck clinically with two well-taken goals after the interval to stun City and could have had more, given the chances they created.

Midfielder Grant Leadbitter tops the scoring charts from midfield with 10, while Lee Tomlin has has netted three in the last two league games and Patrick Bamford scored at the Ethihad as well in their last Championship clash. Karanka's tactics - soaking up pressure and then striking on the counter-attack - have served them well away from the Riverside this season with six victories although they have only won one of their last five on the road in the league.

Midfielder Adam Forshaw is available to make his debut against his former side, having completed his move from Wigan to the Riverside on Wednesday for around 2.5 million.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Regular readers of these live Championship game previews will know that under/over 2.5 goals is always the first market I look for in the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs as there are strong trends. Two weeks ago, Nottingham Forest's late goal at Derby gave them a 2-1 win and denied one of our recommended bets but 12 of the 16 early kick-offs this season have still gone under the line. That's added to 18 of 24 going under 2.5 goals last year.

With Boro boasting the best defence in the division by some considerable margin - they have conceded just 18 times in 27 games and the Premier League champions were unable to breach their rearguard last Saturday - the 1.9110/11 available looks like a price that has to be taken. The Bees are sure to be up for this game and try to take the initiative with the visitors happy to soak up the pressure and look to strike on the counter-attack with their in-form pair, Tomlin and Bamford.

The Smoggies were held to goalless draws in their last two away league games and failed to score at Ipswich in the match prior to that. They did score five at Millwall and three at Rotherham before that but it may be that on the road they don't cut top-half sides to pieces and this looks set to be a tight, low-scoring affair so get on unders and that juicy 1.9110/11.

Draw No Bet

The market tends to underestimate the more unfashionable sides in the Championship and I think it's doing that again here to a certain extent so we should try to profit from it. The Bees have one of the best home records in the division and have beaten Derby, Wolves and improving Fulham in front of their own fans.

They can be backed at 3.8514/5 in the outright market but the 2.166/5 available in the draw no bet market catches my eye. Griffin Park is tight, old-fashioned ground - a million miles away from the splendour of the Ethihad - and the home crowd will really get behind their men in front of the cameras here with the likely presence of Forshaw adding some extra bite. 

Warburton has described the second-half of the side's meeting at the Riverside earlier this season when his men crashed to a 3-0 defeat as their one bad 45 minutes of football and we can expect them to come out to put that right. There's always a chance that Boro could struggle to reach the intensity of their performance last week and I think it's worth taking a chance on the home outfit with the promise of our money back if the game ends all-square.

Recommended Bets
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.9110/11 *Best bet
Back Brentford Draw no bet at 2.166/5

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 90 pts
Returned: 91.5 pts
P/L: + 1.5 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets

Australian Open 2015 Men's Betting: Murray to cover the handicap against fatigued Kyrgios

Can Murray dominate Kyrgios again on Tuesday?

Andy Murray attempts to make the Australian Open semi-finals on Tuesday and Sean Calvert expects the Scot to ease his way past Nick Kyrgios and do just that...

The good luck didn't last long in Melbourne after Andy Murray's 3-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov, as I was foiled again on Monday at the Australian Open.

Stan Wawrinka was two sets and a break up, looking good, but ended up losing five games in a row and narrowly avoided a fifth set against Guillermo Garcia Lopez, before Feli Lopez did win a tie break set against Milos Raonic, but it came in the fourth set not the first.

The opener was heading that way until Lopez double faulted at 4-5 to hand Raonic the set and after an excellent start it's been a struggle to find much in the way of fortune Down Under in recent times.

At least we have two quarter-finalists in the form of Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori on the outrights and each has a chance to make the last four - one more than the other - but more on that later.

Murray is in action again at around 08:15 UK time on Tuesday when he faces Nick Kyrgios and this one will surely go the way of the Brit.

Kyrgios sneaked past Andreas Seppi after saving match point in the fourth round and that five-set marathon will have taken yet more out of the brittle body of the 19-year-old, who isn't used to this sort of continuous punishment and who came into this event nursing a back injury.

This should be a good match-up for Murray, with the Brit being much more reliable in the rallies than Kyrgios, who plays with very little margin for error, and as such will always have peaks and troughs of form within his matches.

The Aussie will rely heavily on his serve to bail him out of trouble and if there is a problem with his fitness Murray's excellent returning will find it out all too quickly.

Murray was a comfortable winner against Kyrgios in their one prior career clash, which came in Toronto at the Rogers Cup last summer when Murray ran out a 6-2, 6-2 victor and I like him on the handicap again here.

It's easy to fall into the trap of following the hype with Kyrgios and I had hoped that the layers might do that a bit more, but he looks realistically priced at around 7.06/1 and so it's worth taking Murray on the side markets.

The 3-0 to Murray at around 2.01/1 is an option, but Kyrgios could zone it for a set and nick one, so I prefer the 1.84/5 about Murray minus 6.5 games, expecting Kyrgios to drop one or maybe two sets by a fairly wide margin.

Berdych should probably be layed on the outright market somewhat ahead of his match with Rafa, as only the very bold would expect the Czech to defeat an opponent he's lost to 17 times in a row.

The Spaniard's struggles with injury and lack of match practice, combined with Berdych's good form so far have aligned to make Nadal a very backable 1.594/7 in this one and that's worth taking if you're not involved in the outrights.

It'd be a fine result for me if Berdych did win, but the mental hurdle is likely to prove too big for the Czech to overcome.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray -6.5 games to beat Kyrgios at 1.804/5

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Australian Wallet

Remember, to bet on any Aussie Open market you'll first need to transfer funds to your Australian Wallet. Find out more in this video.

Australian Open 2015 P&L

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = - 1.70

League Two Betting: Have a go with Hartlepool

Ronnie Moore needs to offer bottom club Hartlepool's players a lot of encouragement

This could be a good weekend for Ronnie Moore's bottom side, who might see the team above them, Carlisle, win too, says Ian Lamont, who also plumps for rejuvenated Ricky Holmes and Northampton...

Hartlepool 3.613/5 v Plymouth 2.35/4; the draw 3.55/2

In many ways, this seems the perfect time to play Plymouth, especially when they are on their travels where they have not been too successful.

The Pilgrims have not won at all since December 20, taking just three draws from six games. If there is any consolation in that as a pointer here, two of those draws have been away from home. At York - always tricky to beat at home - and Southend (a stiffer test) those draws might have been but both were scoreless, one of many things which must be worrying John Sheridan.

While the transfer window shuts only shortly after this match finishes, Hartlepool boss Ronnie Moore will not be allowed to sign Plymouth striker Marvin Morgan before the game, despite watching him in a reserve game midweek.

Perhaps home boss John Sheridan - Moore's "old mate" - should not allow him to leave at all, despite saying he would not stand in his way. The lanky forward, 31, could be just what the Home Park club need.

The 31-year-old could still be useful, clearly after scoring twice in the reserve game.

Plymouth hope keeper Luke McCormack will be able to play after it was feared he had broken a finger.

Pools legend Brian Honour has urged supporters to believe, like he does, that they can climb off the bottom of the division.

Scott Fenwick has 'improved' for extra one-on-one coaching. With two goals in three games (resulting in a win and a draw for Hartlepool) the hosts have a sniff of improvement, while Plymouth struggle.

The hosts must win - not draw - soon to have any chance of staying up and this match gives them no chance like the present. They have won their last two at home to Plymouth, at least, point out Opta.

Recommended Bet
Back Hartlepool @ 3.613/5

Accrington 3.02/1 v Northampton 2.68/5; the draw 3.412/5

With Chris Wilder having revived the career of Ricky Holmes by offering him a deal which resulted in a free transfer from Portsmouth, things are looking up for both the players and his new club.

The 27-year-old supplier scored once in four games in an initial loan spell, having fallen out of favour at Pompey, where Andy Awford is now under severe pressure after a board meeting said only that he would keep his job for now.

Wilder has already earmarked Holmes as 'outstanding' and if he has rekindled the form which made him a star in non-league football he will remain delighted.

Also signing Tom Newey from Oxford to strengthen, plus having an unbeaten January with three wins after a draw, will have lifted the mood at Sixfields.

All in all their price to win at Accrington is on the long side, particularly as the visitors have not conceded in three games.

The hit-and-miss hosts will be just that little bit more fatigued for having had a home game midweek, a 1-0 home defeat which was their third in a row - two without scoring. Northampton have always scored at Accrington (3 wins 3 draws) says Opta, which gives them a headstart.

John Coleman has a task on his hands to rally his troops - and if anyone can, at Stanley, then he is the man. But not this weekend. 

Recommended Bet
Back Northampton @ 2.68/5

Stevenage 2.447/5 v Oxford 3.259/4 the draw 3.55/2

Graham Westley will not lose too much sleep about defeat at Shrewsbury, especially when his side dared to score twice - something no other side has done this season at Greenhaus Meadow. In fact only Tranmere, Cheltenham and Portsmouth - an unlikely trio - had scored there at all, in the league.

Instead, the Boro boss will continue to look to David McAllister, a former Shrewsbury player whom he has praised as playing a strong part in their success this season, for inspiration.

Adam Marriott and Dean Wells thought their goals had earned a point, while Chris Day remains an excellent stopper, giving Westley enough belief, even without  a dominant striker who has scored double figures, that his side will continue their upward form.

Oxford are still negotiating the possible return of Tyrone Barnett from Peterborough on loan - clubs in the Championships are eyeing his signature - allowing Danny Hylton to blossom in front of goal once more. But his best position is roving behind a main striker (although not on the wing in this humble writer's opinion).

Stevenage's run before last weekend - five wins and a draw - was better than everyone else's and far superior to Oxford's six points from seven games.

Recommended Bet
Back Stevenage @ 2.447/5

Carlisle 2.68/5 v Mansfield 3.02/1; the draw 3.55/2

Tempted, as I am, to plum for slightly rejuvenated AFC Wimbledon to win at Morecambe, at juicy odds, against a team with four straight draws, there is also value in backing Carlisle, conquerors of the Dons at Kingsmeadow just a couple of weeks ago.

Keith Curle has found the going ever tougher since his initial splurge of good results and, if those who say the current board has simply taken them backwards over their six years in charge has any merits, he wouldn't fair much better even if he had a magic wand.

But that won't stop him trying. He says he won't let Kyle Dempsey take a rest. Well, he can't afford to even if the 19-year-old has clocked up more minutes for the cause than any other player since Curle arrived in September. He needs all the help he can get and can't leave out one of his best players.

It is down to others, including striker Charlie Wyke, an interesting capture from Middlesbrough on an 18-month deal, and David Amoo has three goals in his last eight games.

Counting against Mansfield is one win in eight games (and six points). That last win might have come at AFC Wimbledon but it was also the only time they picked up away points in the last five attempts and, say Opta, their only away win in 10. Carlisle have not drawn in 21 games, they add, the longest current run in England league football. 

Recommended Bet
Back Carlisle @ 2.68/5

P/L 2014-15

+5.57pt

Australian Open Women's Betting: Sharapova will fight to end her losing streak

Yet again Sharapova must battle against her great rival

Two familiar foes face off in the Australian Open 2015 final, and Abelson Info consider the chances of Maria Sharapova being able to topple Serena Williams...

With her win over Madison Keys last time out securing her place in the final, Williams also ensured that she would remain the world number one after this tournament.

In addition, she's now through to her 23rd Grand Slam final and the American star has gone 18-4 ahead of potentially continuing her domination of Sharapova in their head-to-head.

However, the second seed should have closely watched her rival's encounter with Keys, as the teenager showed how to cause Williams problems in the first set.

Keys also held off eight match points to frustrate her fellow American, but ultimately Williams had too much for her to cope with and saw the match out.

That has been the story of the top seed's tournament in a sense as she has found a way to overcome any problems that she has encountered along the way. Although there were some straight forward wins early on, Williams came through back-to-back three-set matches before eventually seeing off Keys.

That will give her great confidence ahead of the finale on Saturday, and her head-to-head record against Sharapova makes for pleasant reading too.

Williams leads 16-2 in their previous meetings and has incredibly won the last 15 straight against the Russian ace. The last five have come in straight sets, with Sharapova last causing her rival genuine problems back in 2013 in Miami.

Nevertheless, this situation is nothing new for Sharapova and she won't be overawed by the occasion given that this is her 10th Grand Slam final.
The world number two wasted little time in getting past Ekaterina Makarova last time out and her second-round scare against Panova in which she saved two match points seems like a distant memory.

Sharapova conceded that she struggles to deal with Williams' power and aggressiveness, as in turn she is forced into taking shots that she doesn't necessarily want to take.

Although it is undoubtedly easier said than done, she needs to adjust and adapt her game to her rival on Saturday to stand any chance but given the level of maturity and fighting spirit she has shown recently, we believe that this won't be another walkover.

Given the history between these two it is so difficult to have confidence in backing Sharapova, but it would be unwise to rule her out before a ball has even been struck.

As our tournament tip, there was always a risk that this match-up could end our hopes at the final hurdle. As a result, if you can't bring yourself round to backing the Russian to win, then the value can be found elsewhere by backing her to make a fist of it.

Save for a bad day at the office from Williams it is going to take something special from Sharapova to pick up the first Grand Slam title of 2015. Her rival has shown glimpses of struggling and so she will need to pounce at the first hint on Saturday in order to finally end the streak.

Recommended Bets
Back Sharapova to beat Williams @ 3.3512/5
Back Three Sets in Williams vs Sharapova @ 2.526/4

***

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Transfer Deadline Day: The all-important numbers

Fernando Torres cost Chelsea 50 million on 2011's deadline day

Ahead of the latest January deadline day, Michael Lintorn chronicles memorable moments of past editions in number form, including Benjani's ill-timed snooze, Peter Odemwingie's joyless ride and QPR's striker-binging...

0

The number of times that Harry Redknapp has been managing a Premier League club on the winter deadline day and they haven't been involved in at least one transaction (he has participated in ten windows).

2

Benjani missed two flights in 2008 when supposed to leave Portsmouth for Man City by falling asleep at the airport. The Premier League still approved the deal on February 5, having been satisfied that the important paperwork had been completed on deadline day.

3

Robbie Keane has made four winter switches in the past six years, three of them on January 30 or later and two of them on the actual deadline day (to Tottenham in 2009 and Celtic in 2010).

4

The number of forwards signed on loan by QPR on deadline day last year: Guilherme Dellatorre, Kevin Doyle, Will Keane and Modibo Maiga. They scored just three goals between them.

9

Nikica Jelavic scored nine Premier League goals for Everton after his 2012 deadline day arrival. Only two winter recruits have bettered that: Papiss Cisse at Newcastle and Daniel Sturridge at Liverpool.

24

Premier League confirmation that Arsenal had signed Andrey Arshavin from Zenit St Petersburg didn't come through until around 24 hours after the 2009 window's official shut time.

122

This was the approximate number of miles that Peter Odemwingie would have driven to get home after his ill-fated journey to Loftus Road to try to join QPR from West Brom without being granted the Baggies' permission in 2013.

1,600,000

There were more than 1.6 million references to transfer deadline day on Twitter leading up to the 23:00 deadline last year, with Kim Kallstrom the most discussed player.

135,000,000

The amount spent by Premier League clubs in pounds on the epic deadline day of 2011 (excluding loan fees), with Fernando Torres, Andy Carroll, Luis Suarez and David Luiz all moving late in the evening.

Betting on tennis favourites against higher ranked players in the ATP and WTA

World ranking of players is something that many bettors take into account, without necessarily understanding whether it is relevant or not to their betting. This article assesses whether there is an edge to be gained betting on Tennis favourites against higher ranked players.

Understanding tennis players ranking

A tennis player’s world ranking is a controversial subject. Calculated on a 52-week rolling basis, ranks tend to fluctuate significantly during the Tennis season. 

A long-term injury - think Juan Martin Del Potro, Nicolas Almagro and Tommy Haas recently - will affect a player’s rank severely and may leave them unable to enter directly into tournaments without qualifying or receiving wild cards.  Due to this, some observers feel that a 2-year (or 104 week) period would be fairer, and more representative of a player's actual ability.

Furthermore, world rankings tend to reflect the current predominant surface being played in the majority of tournaments, at that time of the season. For example, clay court experts are likely to be ranked higher, after the main clay season finishes, than they would prior to it. This means that rankings are often skewed and are not a true reflection of the all-surface abilities of players.

On this basis, the market may interpret player rankings incorrectly, with a player who has risen up the rankings recently due to several strong tournaments likely to be over-rated. So what does this mean for tennis bettors?

Are lower ranked favourites undervalued in the ATP?

An interesting angle would be to look at players who are favourites in the market, but are the lower ranked player. These players are perceived by the market to be the better player, but considered worse by the rankings by the ATP/WTA Tours. Logically, these players are likely to be under-rated despite being favourite, due to being the lower ranked player. 

The following table assesses a sample of players on the ATP Tour throughout their career (main draw and qualifying matches) when they started the match as favourite, but as the lower ranked player. 

A cross-section of players ranked from 1 to 100 were sampled, with two players around the midpoint of each ten ranking places included.

All prices used are Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices, and only matches where at least one set was completed were included:

Player

Rank

Matches

Wins

Win %

P/L

ROI %

Nishikori

5

23

12

52.17

-476

-20.70

Murray

6

13

8

61.54

-28

-2.15

Anderson

15

27

18

66.67

354

13.11

Bautista-Agut

16

30

19

63.33

252

8.40

Benneteau

25

32

21

65.63

109

3.41

Mayer L

26

45

33

73.33

945

21.00

Querrey

35

52

30

57.69

-181

-3.48

Mannarino

36

22

13

59.09

-70

-3.18

Sock

45

33

17

51.52

-333

-10.09

Seppi

46

12

9

75.00

326

27.17

Sousa

55

11

7

63.64

149

13.55

Young

56

39

27

69.23

757

19.41

Bellucci

65

41

27

65.85

83

2.02

Tomic

66

44

29

65.91

110

2.50

Jaziri

75

12

8

66.67

190

15.83

Haas

76

35

25

71.43

676

19.31

Berankis

85

46

30

65.22

277

6.02

Dodig

86

21

14

66.67

246

11.71

Kamke

95

23

14

60.87

-197

-8.57

Gojowcyzk

96

26

12

46.15

-504

-19.38

Overall

587

373

63.54

2685

4.57

As can be seen from the table, a significant sample of data was generated with 587 matches sampled. 373 wins came from this sample (a win percentage of 63.54%) and when a £100 hypothetical stake was applied to all matches sampled, a profit of £2,685 was generated (return on investment of 4.57%).

This ROI is very strong for a blind backed sample of a significant size, and can be treated as a huge edge in the market.

Andreas Seppi, Leonardo Mayer and Tommy Haas all recorded win percentages over 70% from this scenario, with Haas particularly interesting, as he recovered his ranking following a long-term injury in 2012. The same issue will affect Haas in the future, as he has been absent from Tour through injury since May 2014. Donald Young, with a win percentage of 69.23% and ROI of 19.41%, was also historically very strong.

Just seven players of the 20 sampled recorded negative ROI figures, with Kei Nishikori, Peter Gojowczyk and Jack Sock recording the worst figures of over -10% ROI. Interestingly both top ten ATP players sampled (Andy Murray was the other player) had negative figures, illustrating that both currently have poor records against elite level opponents.

Are lower ranked favourites undervalued in the WTA?

Player

Rank

Matches

Wins

Win %

P/L

ROI %

Ivanovic

5

29

20

68.97

346

11.93

Radwanska A

6

8

6

75.00

229

28.63

Jankovic

15

12

7

58.33

18

1.50

Safarova

16

26

18

69.23

403

15.50

Pavlyuchenkova

25

16

10

62.50

118

7.38

Svitolina

26

12

8

66.67

122

10.17

Keys

35

29

22

75.86

637

21.97

Garcia

36

13

8

61.54

10

0.77

Vinci

45

15

10

66.67

297

19.80

Koukalova

46

10

7

70.00

169

16.90

Beck

55

21

11

52.38

-337

-16.05

Jovanovski

56

11

6

54.55

-152

-13.82

Vesnina

65

24

18

75.00

766

31.92

Shvedova

66

41

26

63.41

234

5.71

Erakovic

75

30

18

60.00

-77

-2.57

Rogers

76

14

6

42.86

-381

-27.21

Vekic

85

12

9

75.00

308

25.67

Parmentier

86

22

11

50.00

-275

-12.50

Konjuh

95

30

23

76.67

545

18.17

Gibbs

96

20

14

70.00

385

19.25

Overall

395

258

65.32

3365

8.52

Interestingly, the WTA figures were even stronger, with a return on investment of 8.52% from 395 matches, as well as a slightly higher 65.32% win rate. These statistics are truly stellar numbers for a blind-backed scenario.

Of the players with a large sample, Madison Keys, Elena Vesnina and Ana Konjuh had win percentages of 75% or over, and these look like players whose rank is likely to be, or has been below their level of ability.

Quite incredibly, only four WTA players of the 20 sampled recorded negative figures - Annika Beck, Bojana Jovanovski, Shelby Rogers and Pauline Parmentier. 

Overall, combining the ATP and WTA figures, profits of £6050 were generated from a stake of £98,200, giving a return of investment of 6.16%.  From such a huge sample, this profit level is likely to be statistically significant, and it would appear that the market has underestimated this scenario in the extreme.

Bettors would be very strongly advised to consider this in their future tennis analysis.

Against All Odds: Under 2.5 backers to be torpedoed

Will Marcelino's men march on?

The action from the Copa del Rey continues on television tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune into Getafe v Villarreal will be rewarded with plenty of goals.

Getafe v Villarreal
Thursday January 29, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

This quarter-final tie is finely poised following Villarreal's 1-0 win at El Madrigal last week. Getafe will have been a touch disappointed not to have scored an away goal but they are only one behind and they come into the game on the back of a 2-1 success over Celta de Vigo on Monday.

That match rewarded under 2.5 goal layers and the same can be said of five of Getafe's last seven on home soil. Quique Snchez Flores' men will be desperate to keep a clean sheet this evening but I can't see that happening and that means they'll need at least three to qualify. The Deep Blues will be forced to open up and that will leave them vulnerable on the break.

Opponents of this selection will point out that as Villarreal have a 1-0 lead, they can just sit back and play for a 0-0 - something which is well within their compass as The Yellow Submarines have kept three clean sheets on the bounce.

I wouldn't be so sure though as if they play to defend their slender advantage, if something goes wrong, they may not have time to recover. Therefore I would expect Marcelino to send out his players to kill the game off early by scoring themselves - something they've done in 13 consecutive away fixtures.

The visitors have seen two of their last three on the road feature three goals or more and I suspect we'll be in for more of the same tonight. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.794/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Getafe v Villarreal @ 1.794/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 26 pts
Returned: 19.7 pts
P/L: - 6.3 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Back the Clarets to win crucial six-pointer

Sean Dyche's men are scoring goals, and are fancied to win at Sunderland in a crucial six-pointer on Saturday

Six games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm for Mike Norman to get his teeth stuck into this Saturday, and our man fancies Burnley to take all three points from their crucial six-pointer at Sunderland...

Crystal Palace 2.942/1 v Everton 2.747/4; The Draw 3.412/5

These two sides couldn't be going through more different fortunes right now, but surprisingly it's Crystal Palace who are the 'form' team, while Everton are seemingly struggling from one game to the next.

It's four wins out of four for the Eagles since Alan Pardew took charge, 10 goals scored in three away games and a terrific 2-1 win over in-form Tottenham at Selhurst Park. Meanwhile, Roberto Martinez's men are on a run of five successive Premier League away defeats.

So perhaps you'll be surprised to learn then that the Toffees are the favourites to win this game - I know I'm surprised.

True, Everton are a much better side than their recent form suggests but they aren't scoring many goals right now - they've registered blanks against Southampton, Stoke, Hull, and West Brom since the end of December - and if you don't score goals then you don't win games. Palace are scoring, they are in form, and at the prices they have to be the call.

Recommended Bet
Back Crystal Palace to Win @ 2.942/1

Liverpool 1.75/7 v West Ham 5.79/2; The Draw 4.1n/a

Ignoring Liverpool's narrow loss in extra-time at Chelsea in midweek then it's 11 leauge and cup games without defeat for Brendan Rodgers' men, and many will fancy the Reds to mount a serious challenge for a top four finish from here.

But perhaps Liverpool's recent form is a little misleading. Five of those 11 games were level after 90 minutes, while from their six wins only Swansea currently occupy a top-10 position in the table.

And also worth pointing out is that Rodgers' men have won just once at Anfield - the victory over Swansea - since the end of November. The Reds have failed to beat the likes of Sunderland, Leicester, and Championship side Bolton in that time.

So while Liverpool's odds of 1.75/7 to win the game are understandable, it's not a price I want to be taking.

West Ham are enjoying a terrific season, and the likes of Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing - desperate to impress on the return to their old stomping ground - and Diafra Sakho are sure to cause the home side enough problems to make it an uncomfortable afternoon.

Recommended Bet
Lay Liverpool to Win @ 1.715/7

Man Utd 1.351/3 v Leicester 11.010/1; The Draw 5.95/1

Dubbed the Gaal-acticos, Louis van Gaal's men haven't really lived up to that name in recent weeks; their last six league and cup games have produced just seven goals in total, none have gone over the 2.5 goal mark, and backing both teams to get on the scoresheet would have seen you lose your money each time.

In the same period Leicester have rediscovered their form, winning four of their last six games including that tremendous 1-2 win at White Hart Lane in the FA Cup last weekend.

But even in decent form the Foxes' games have been relatively low-scoring - three have resulted in 1-0 wins while they also suffered a 1-0 loss. So perhpas we shouldn't expect too many goals when Nigel Pearson's men travel to Old Trafford on Saturday - certainly don't expect another 5-3 scoreline!

In fact the bet I like here is Manchester United to win without conceding.

Van Gaal's men have conceded just once in their last four league and cup games and they've recorded five clean sheets from their last nine outings. They also haven't conceded more than once in a game since the middle of October - a run stretching 16 matches - so their defence perhaps deserves far more credit than whay they actually receive.

Recommended Bet
Back Man Utd Win to Nil @ 2.26/5

Stoke 1.75/7 v QPR 6.25/1; The Draw 3.953/1

It's getting to the point of no return now for QPR. Following 11 straight defeats away from home (league and cup) their next three games on the road are at Stoke, Sunderland, and Hull - all winnable yet if that run of straight defeats stretches to 14 then you'd have to seriously worry for the Hoops' survival hopes.

Harry Redknapp's men are a decent home side of course but it's impossible to envisage them picking up enough points at Loftus Road alone to survive in the Premier League.

Stoke were dealt a huge blow on Monday night when Bojan - clearly starting to adapt to life in this country and show his undoubted brilliance - was ruled out for the rest of the season with a cruciate ligament injury.

Mark Hughes' men have been far from brilliant at the Britannia Stadium this term, losing to the likes of Aston Villa, Burnley, and Leicester already, but in recent months they've become more consistent and they are currently on a good run of form - five wins and a draw from their last seven outings.

The key point to make here however is that Stoke probably won't need to be brilliant on home soil to get the better of QPR. Redknapp's men have been completely hopeless away from home this term and until that changes then we simply have to keep opposing them.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 1.75/7

Sunderland 2.245/4 v Burnley 3.814/5; The Draw 3.412/5

When you look at the bottom of the Premier League table and see the likes of Burnley, Leicester, Hull, QPR, West Brom, and Crystal Palace down there then you feel sure that at least two of those clubs will be relegated. But the two clubs I fear for most are Sunderland and Aston Villa.

And the reason I fear for them is the fact that they are the two teams who are really struggling for goals right now.

I said before a ball was kicked this season that the Black Cats are too heavily reliant on three or four players - Steven Fletcher most notably - and if those players don't score regularly then Gus Poyet's men would struggle.

That's proving to be the case with the Black Cats now 16th in the table following a run of just one league win in 12 games and a miserly eight goals scored (three against Man City remarkably!). So on the flip side of that, the reason I believe Burnley will survive is because they do score goals - 12 in their last six league and cup games for example.

As for this match I'm not expecting fireworks, but I'd much rather be with the team that are grabbing the odd victory and getting on the scoresheet with regularity.

Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to Win @ 3.814/5 (best bet)

West Brom 3.02/1 v Tottenham 2.6213/8; The Draw 3.412/5

As we've said plenty of times recently there's no logic at all as to why games involving Spurs keep ending 2-1, but they do - 12 of their last 24 league and cup outings have finished this way.

When you consider that to dutch the 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines each time pays out at around 5.04/1 (sometimes a lot more) then it doesn't take a genius to work out that when it's occurring every other game then you're making a very nice profit.

But as I say, there's absolutely no logic to it and I'm not a big fan of backing something just because it's happened a few times previously - although I wouldn't put anyone off following the trend at all.

Perhaps some of those Tottenham 2-1 wins, especially away from home, are an indication that they are a very hard-working team that keep going right until the death, and if that's the case then that's not a bad trait to have.

West Brom will be a tough nut to crack though now that Tony Pulis is in charge. The Baggies conceded their first goal under the new boss in last week's 2-1 win at Birmingham (there's that scoreline again!) and I fancy they'll concede again.

Spurs have been excellent on the road this term and I believe they have the class to win again now that Pulis' honeymoon period is perhaps near an end.

Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham to Win @ 2.6213/8

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 128 pts
Returned: 135.06 pts
P/L: + 7.06 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

Australian Open Betting: Murray the master can go all the way now

Eyes on the ball, control and quality...Andy Murray at his best in Melbourne

Andy Murray has just reached his fifth semi-final in Melbourne but has yet to win the title. Ralph Ellis, who backed him at big odds in December, is still confident that this will be the breakthrough year...

There are always big moments in sport - but they aren't always the obvious ones. We all see the key goal, the crucial wicket, the brilliant chip shot that sets up a birdie; the real turning point has often been and gone a few moments earlier.

That's certainly how it was for Andy Murray in his quarter-final victory over Australia's next big thing Nick Kyrgios. He had it won from the moment he'd clinched the second set - but it was half way through the tie-break that you suddenly saw the quality of Britain's number one.

His 19-year-old opponent had come up with a big shot to earn a mini-break on Murray's serve. After clinging on against an early assault, Kyrgios was suddenly in the game, in a position to make it a set all, and bring the partisan crowd in the Rod Laver Arena to life.

He celebrated as if he'd already won the match, never mind a point. He let out a giant roar and danced around the side of the court. Murray, at the other end, simply turned round to receive - and then won the next point with the most brilliant of topspin lob shots that left the 6ft 4ins teenager stranded hopelessly at the net.

It was the shot of a player totally at ease with himself. Murray is fitter than he's been for more than a year, he's rediscovered his range of shots, and he's settled his coaching team to have everybody pulling in the same direction. He's not even worried about the distraction of his semi-final opponent Tomas Berdych being coached by Dani Vallverdu, the man who had recently walked away from his own backroom team.

"My goal isn't to beat Dani; my goal is to beat Berdych," was how Murray put it, and that suggests he's got his mental attitude perfectly right.

There were signs back in December of the way Murray was returning to his best when I suggested backing him at 13.5n/a to collect his third Grand Slam title in Melbourne. He's down to 4.03/1 now to be the Australian Open winner, but he's looking that good that I'm resisting the temptation to turn the market green.

Of course the Czech will present a tough opponent, and that's before you even begin to think about who Murray might face in a final. Berdych has knocked out Rafa Nadal, after all.

But this has been a tired looking Nadal in Melbourne, who was way off his best. And in Berdych we are talking about a 29-year-old who has only once in his career reached a Grand Slam final (at Wimbledon in 2010), and you have to wonder if he really will have the belief in himself when the match moves into tight situations, as it inevitably will.

In those crucial points it comes down to mentality, and Murray proved against his teenage quarter-final opponent that his mind is strong.  Come to think of it, that lob in the tie-break wasn't just the turning point against Kyrgios - it might very well have been the moment that the Scot found the belief in himself to go the whole way to the title.

Australian Wallet

Remember, to bet on any Aussie Open market you'll first need to transfer funds to your Australian Wallet. Find out more in this video.

Transfer Talk: Real Madrid want David de Gea on a free

David de Gea is wanted by Real Madrid

Lead story today is about a transfer that might not happen for 18 months but it would be a biggie.

Real Madrid have put plans to sign Man Utd goalkeeper David de Gea on hold for now in the hope of landing him for free next summer.

The Daily Telegraph claim the Champions League holders have abandoned plans to try and talk United into selling the Spanish shot stopper at the end of this season, with the Red Devils determined not to let him go this year.

Real's plan is to now wait until the summer of 2016, when De Gea will be a free agent if he fails to agree terms on a new contract with United before then.

United are believed to have offered the 24-year-old a five-year deal worth 25million in the hope of ending speculation over his future.

Switching to the blue side of Manchester and Scott Sinclair is poised to end his troubled spell with champions City by agreeing to join Aston Villa on loan for the remainder of the season.

The 25-year-old has only featured in 12 games for the Citizens since moving from Swansea in 2012, spending last season on loan with West Brom.

The winger is now set to move back to the Midlands, with Sky Sports claiming he has passed a medical at Villa ahead of completing his loan switch with a view to a permanent move in the summer.

Meanwhile, Chelsea have agreed to sell Andre Schurrle for 30million to either Borussia Dortmund or Wolfsburg, according to the Daily Mail.

The Blues are looking to raise some extra cash in order to fund a move for Fiorentina's Juan Cuadrado this month.

Fiorentina are adamant they will not sell for less than Cuadrado's release clause, which is set at 26.8million.

Schurrle is eager to return to Germany having fallen out favour at Stamford Bridge and looks to have a choice of Dortmund or Bremen.

Moving across London to West Ham and The Sun claims Sam Allardyce is ready to offer Swansea 8million for unsettled striker Bafetimbi Gomis.

The 29-year-old has been strongly linked with a move away from the Liberty Stadium this month, with Crystal Palace having been eager to snap him up.

The newspaper claims the Hammers could need to sign a new striker this month as Chelsea are sniffing around Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho, and Gomis is said to be Allardyce's first choice should he need to add some extra firepower.

Should Gomis leave Swansea then the Daily Mail claims they will launch a bid to sign Blackburn striker Rudy Gestede.

A host of Premier League clubs are interested in the Benin international but so far no one has been able to match Blackburn's 6million valuation.

What past BetShares & Market Movement tell us about betting Superbowl XLIX?

For Superbowl 49 Pinnacle Sports will provide BetShare data leading up to the big game. Here we evaluate the last decade of Superbowls and explain how BetShares and market movement have reflected on the results, to help you extract value from this shared data.

A lot of information

This article looks at how past BetShares have indicated potential Superbowl betting success so when you see our BetShares on Twitter, you’ll have more information with which to apply them to your betting. If you haven’t read about BetShares before now, this article does a good job of introducing the concept and its uses.

The following table looks at betting data for the last ten Superbowls, with a close look at which side was most popular in both bets placed and market movement. We’ll reflect on that data below.

Spread data for the last ten Superbowls:

Please refer to this glossary for the table below.

Opened: Opening spread and price

Closed: Closing spread and price

MMW: Was market movement indicative of a winner? Remember, this accounts for the spread only

Score: The final score

C: Did the team cover the spread?

BetShare: The percentage of bets placed on that team to cover the spread

BSMW: Did the BetShare majority side with the team that covered the spread?

Year

Opened

Closed

MMW

Score

Covered

BetShare

BSMW

2005

New England Patriots

(-6) 1.95

(-7) 1.96

N

24-21

N

57.1%

N

Philadelphia Eagles

(+6) 1.95

(+7) 1.96

N

21-24

Y

42.9%

N

2006

Seattle Seahawks

(+3) 1.96

(+4) 1.91

Y

10-21

N

82.8%

N

Pittsburgh Steelers

(-3) 1.96

(-4) 2.02

Y

21-10

Y

17.2%

N

2007

Indianapolis Colts

(-6) 1.96

(-6.5) 1.97

Y

29-17

Y

57.4%

Y

Chicago Bears

(+6) 1.96

(+6.5) 1.95

Y

17-29

N

42.6%

Y

2008

New York Giants

(+14) 2.04

(+12.5) 1.95

Y

17-14

Y

59.1%

Y

New England Patriots

(-14) 1.89

(-12.5) 2.00

Y

14-17

N

40.9%

Y

2009

Pittsburgh Steelers

(-5.5) 1.93

(-6.5) 1.98

Y

27-23

N

59.3%

N

Arizona Cardinals

(+5.5) 2.00

(+6.5) 1.96

Y

23-27

Y

40.7%

N

2010

New Orleans Saints

(+3.5) 2.04

(+4.5) 1.93

N

31-17

Y

41.1%

N

Indianapolis Colts

(-3.5) 1.89

(-4.5) 2.02

N

17-31

N

58.9%

N

2011

Pittsburgh Steelers

(0) 2.02

(+3) 1.87

Y

25-31

N

51.8%

N

Green Bay Packers

(0) 1.89

(-3) 2.08

Y

31-25

Y

48.2%

N

2012

New York Giants

(+3.5) 1.88

(+3) 1.92/td>

Y

21-17

Y

33.2%

N

New England Patriots

(-3.5) 2.03

(-3) 2.03

Y

17-21

N

66.8%

N

2013

Baltimore Ravens

(+3.5) 2.01

(+4.5) 1.96

N

34-31

Y

66.5%

Y

San Francisco 49ers

(-3.5) 1.92

(-4.5) 1.96

N

31-34

N

33.5%

Y

2014

Seattle Seahawks

(0) 1.95

(+1.5) 2.04

N

43-8

Y

29.5%

N

Denver Broncos

(0) 1.95

(-1.5) 1.89

N

8-43

N

70.5%

N

Within this data, we find two important questions, which lead to a third. Let’s look at them along with the patterns formed by the answers.

How accurate was market movement in predicting the team to cover the spread?

The Spread market moved in the correct direction 60% of the time. However, in the last Superbowl, the market moved in the wrong direction.

Was the BetShare indicative of the winner?

It’s critical that you know that BetShares are not a promise so much as an important piece of data. Like any number, it’s up to you to interpret the full meaning, but it’s important to note that a majority BetShare by itself is by no means a promise that the market is on the mark.

Seven times in the last ten Superbowls, the BetShare leader did not win. This is important. Some people on our Twitter feed assume that the stronger BetShare is right, while others yell “fade!” when they see the public taking a strong stance.

The latter group would appear to be validated here. Only four times in the ten years has a BetShare exceeded 60%, and those Shares have gone 1-3. Exceeding 70% has happened twice, both times losers. Bettors may ask, why is that?

One potential explanation comes down to pricing. With many of our bettors being savvy shoppers, they find themselves looking for the best price, or even better, for arbitrage opportunities. Pinnacle Sports’ odds usually lead the market in one way or another, giving price shoppers ample opportunity.

Another possible reason? In a market this large, it's bound to attract casual bettors, teams with a strong national identity - like the 2014 Denver Broncos - or an explosive offense - again, like the 2014 Denver Broncos - can prove the more popular bet.

Name recognition and a desire to see an explosive game might be the reasons some bettors put their money where they do. That may be a reason to do the opposite.

How did BetShare minorities match up with market movement?

Of the six teams that covered the spread when the market made them more expensive, four did not have the majority BetShare. To take it a step further, the three smallest Betshares of the last ten years (2006 Steelers, 2012 Giants & 2014 Seahawks) all covered the spread, and they all won their respective games.

“Sample size” may be ringing through your head, but it’s important to remember this ten-game sample concerns absolutely huge markets, with thousands of bets on each. There are clear patterns here linking BetShares to probability, especially when combined with market movement data and that makes access incredibly valuable, especially when you may be betting thousands of dollars yourself.

What does this mean for Superbowl XLIX?

Midway through the second quarter of the AFC Championship, Seattle opened as a two-point Superbowl favourite over the Patriots. As New England’s slaughter of the Indianapolis Colts played out, bettors were impressed and early interest moved the handicap to even.

It’s stayed there for a number of days, with Patriots’ money twice making Bill Belichick’s team the favourite. As of this writing, Seattle has once again edged ahead. Either way, it looks safe to say the overall market will have moved towards the Patriots by game time, since a two-point move in this-established a market would be monumental.

The BetShare reflects the story, though the landscape is changing. On Thursday, January 22nd, we tweeted that the BetShare was 67.7% New England, 32.3% Seattle. Here’s how it looks now:  

        

We’ll be tweeting the BetShare daily, then updating here.

Past Superbowl BetShare trends suggest the favour is in the Seahawks' corner; past market movement trends like the Patriots. Do you discount the latter as an early market correction? Do you look at the BetShare and immediately fade the public against a Patriots team? Either way, it looks to be a classic game. We hope this information will help make it a little more memorable for you as a profitable one.   

You’re going to be betting on Superbowl, so do your bottom line a favour; follow @PinnacleSports so that when we update, you’ll be the first to know, and have the opportunity to be the first to take advantage. 

Against All Odds: Boca and Velez to go all out for Libertadores place

Can Boca Juniors become a great force once again?

There's a huge match in Argentina tonight as Boca Juniors take on Velez for the right to play in the upcoming Copa Libertadores, and Paul Robinson is expecting at least three goals.

Boca Juniors v Velez
Thursday January 29, 01:15 GMT

A six time winner of the Copa Libertadores, Boca Juniors will be desperate to qualify for the competition once again. They last won it in 2007 and if they can negotiate their way past Velez, I wouldn't rule them out winning it again.

There's no denying that there's a lot on the line tonight but I don't anticipate a cagey affair. 'Xeneizes' are usually good for goals and their matches averaged a solid 2.53 each time last season, with eight of their 19 rewarding under 2.5 layers. 

Opponents, Velez, were a lot less prolific as with only 21 scored from their 19 outings, their fixtures averaged 2.26 goals per 90 minutes. Seven of the 19 still saw at least three goals scored though and in the campaign before that, Miguel ngel Russo's side were knocking them in for fun.

We haven't exactly been on our best run of late but that happens in betting and hopefully things will turn around, starting tonight. I really like our chance of goals in this one, so with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.538/15 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Boca Juniors v Velez @ 1.538/15

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 26 pts
Returned: 19.7 pts
P/L: - 6.3 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Monday Night Football Tips: Genoa to net at Napoli

Napoli aren't as resilient as a team of their ambitions should be

Michael Lintorn picks out the best bets for Monday night's three televised European games...

Empoli v Udinese
Monday, 18:00
Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Empoli 2.0811/10, Udinese 4.3100/30, The Draw 3.412/5

There might not be a fixture all week where the trends for backing the draw are as compelling as they are in this return for Udinese legend Antonio Di Natale to the club where he started his career.

Empoli have lost just three home games since promotion, drawing each of the most recent four 0-0, while Udinese have shared spoils in five of their past nine league matches, including the latest two on the road.

Both further demonstrated their commitment to drawing in their Coppa Italia round-of-16 ties last week, with Empoli taking Roma to extra time and Udinese being beaten on penalties away to Napoli.

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 3.412/5

Napoli v Genoa
Monday, 20:00
Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Napoli 1.434/9, Genoa 9.417/2, The Draw 4.94/1

Genoa's surprise candidacy for a Champions League qualifying spot has faltered recently owing to a five-game winless streak, but none of the other contenders like Lazio, neighbours Sampdoria and their hosts Napoli have sprinted clear, meaning that a San Paolo victory would revive their bid.

While that is unlikely against a side who have lost only once in a dozen home outings, one thing that they should have no trouble doing is scoring. The Rossoblu fired seven times in their last four league fixtures without winning any and haven't been shut out on their Serie A travels since matchday two.

Napoli have kept a mere two league clean sheets in nine attempts at the San Paolo this season.

Recommended Bet: Back Napoli not to keep a clean sheet @ 1.84/5

Pacos Ferreira v Benfica
Monday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Extra (red button)

Match Odds: Pacos Ferreira 7.87/1, Benfica 1.511/2, The Draw 4.67/2

Porto's defeat at Maritimo presents Benfica with an opportunity to charge nine points by triumphing at Pacos Ferreira. As Jorge Jesus' heroes are on a nine-match league winning run, the latter seven without conceding, and have dropped five points all campaign, the chances of them wasting it are minimal.

The champions have faced bottom-half teams nine times this term - six of them away - and have won the lot, giving up one goal in those 13-and-a-half hours of football. As Pacos Ferreira lost to nil against both Benfica and Porto in the first half of 2014/15, a repeat has to be fancied.

Recommended Bet: Back Benfica to win to nil @ 2.427/5

This Week In Football History: Rooney loves an FA Cup wonder goal

Wayne Rooney - A consistent scorer of sublime goals

Wayne Rooney has scored some incredible goals for Manchester United. And today Adrian North takes us back to 2005 and 2007 and two of Rooney's most outrageous goals, both in the FA Cup Fourth Round.

January 29, 2005 - Man Utd 3-0 Middlesbrough, Old Trafford: Rooney does love an FA Cup wonder goal.

Here's something I had forgotten until I began researching for this week's stories - Wayne Rooney has never won the FA Cup. Five Premier League titles, two League Cups, and a Champions League medal, but never the FA Cup. His two runners-up medals from 04/05 and 06/07 have probably long since been chucked away or pawned off.

It may be some consolation to Rooney however, that despite losing to Arsenal on penalties in 2005 and to a Didier Drogba inspired Chelsea in 2007, he scored some of those seasons' greatest goals, all in the FA Cup Fourth Round.

Rooney, who has scored a few half decent goals throughout his career, seems to have a particular love for the FA Cup. And it's not the 17 goals in 30 Cup appearances that are necessarily that impressive, as opposed to the quality of the goals he has scored in the competition. I seem to remember a brilliant curling effort against Villa from 2008 (that I can't find online), and in 2007 he scored this screamer against Watford in the semi-finals.

But on January 29, 2005 Rooney scored a couple goals that would see him not only his get his first taste of an FA Cup wonder goal but also of a Goal of the Month and Goal of the Season award. After a famous replay with non-league Exeter City in the Third Round United would make steady progress in the 2005 FA Cup handing out thrashings to Boro, Everton, Southampton and Newcastle before battering Arsenal for a goalless 120 minutes and losing to Patrick Vieira's last kick as a Gunner.

The game against Boro was perhaps United's most complete performance of that cup run and after John O'Shea scored an early goal Old Trafford bared witness to two moments of brilliance from the still 19-year-old baby faced scouser. Midway through the second half Rooney delightfully chipped the wandering Mark Schwarzer.

And 10 minutes from time he would smash in 04/05's Goal of the Season with this volley. (There is something about goals that travel from the goalkeeper to the opposition's net without touching the ground that is unexplainably awesome)

Rooney, just halfway through his first season as a United player had begun to cement his legacy, and I hate to use this clich, but I'll make an exception for Rooney, as not just a great goal scorer, but as a scorer of great goals. He is a player who long after he retires will never be analysed statistically, but rather in the context of his bicycle kick against City, this volley against Boro, his curler against Arsenal, the lob against West Ham, and then there is this chip, from January 27, 2007, again in the FA Cup Fourth Round, this time against Porstmouth.

Rooney, who had started on the bench for the tie, came on with half an hour to go and tapped United ahead after 75 minutes. It is his second goal however that encapsulates everything that's brilliant about the man. He's not just a scorer of insane 500mph volleys or lobs from the halfway line, but also a player of finesse and guile. And to me there's something just a bit more beautiful about a delicate chip than a rocket of a volley.

Transfer Talk: Jose moves for Real talisman

Will Sergio Ramos be swapping Real Madrid for Chelsea?

Could Sergio Ramos be on his way to Stamford Bridge? This is the big story coming out of today's transfer talk.

Manchester United have been knocked back in their attempts to sign Gareth Bale with the Welshman saying he is happy at Real Madrid.

The Red Devils were believed to be pushing for a summer move for the former Tottenham star, who has been linked with a return to the Premier League on more than one occasion since his move to Spain.

Bale managed to help Los Blancos secure the Champions League crown last season and the capital outfit currently sit at the top of the La Liga table.

The Wales international has now been keen to clarify his position at Real and says he has no interest at present to join United and just wants to keep improving at the Bernabeu.

Bale told radio station Cadena Ser: "I can't imagine myself at Manchester United. In a recent interview they asked me if I was unhappy at Real and I told them I'm really happy here.

"I've got several years left on my contract, I'm enjoying myself, we're winning trophies and I want to keep doing that here at Real."

Staying with news concerning Real, the Daily Express is suggesting Chelsea could make a move for Los Blancos defender Sergio Ramos.

The Spain centre-back could be tempted to work under former Real boss Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge but the European Champions are believed to be keen to extend Ramos' stay in Madrid and will work hard to keep hold of their talisman.

Moving on to news from the north east and Newcastle United playmaker Moussa Sissoko says he is happy at St James' Park, amid speculation Paris Saint-Germain are interested in his services.

The Parisian outfit are believed to have made Sissoko one of their prime January targets, with manager Laurent Blanc a keen admirer of the 25-year-old.

However Sissoko says he has no intentions to call time on his spell in the Premier League and is looking to develop as a player with the Magpies.

He was quoted by Sky Sports, saying: "My goal was to come to England because it was the championship that best matched my game and I do not think I am wrong.

"So I want to stay here and grow at one of the biggest clubs in England. I have a preference for the Premier League and I see myself staying here."

Premier League Stats Review: Chelsea can take giant stride towards title with home victory over City

Chelsea have a 100% record in home league games against the other big-six teams in Jose Mourinho's second spell

Andrew Atherley says forget Bradford and remember that Jose Mourinho's long-term home record gives Chelsea an excellent chance in Saturday's crunch clash...

Bradford proved in the most astonishing fashion that Chelsea are not unbeatable at home but the Blues still rate excellent value in Saturday's title showdown with Manchester City.

The FA Cup upset was one of those exceptions that prove the rule: in this case, the rule being that Jose Mourinho, and by extension Chelsea, is brilliant at getting home wins.

And because that brilliance does not wane even when the quality of opposition rises, Mourinho's teams almost always offer good value in the big matches. That is the case again on Saturday when Chelsea are available at 2.0621/20 to win the game.

In Mourinho's two spells with Chelsea, the overall home win rate in the Premier League is 80%. In the first spell, Chelsea were part of a big four and now they are part of a big six - taking results against those elite teams as a whole, the win rate is 81%.

That makes it clear Chelsea's performance levels do not dip against the best teams - while, of course, the odds available on a home win rise significantly.

It is also worth noting that Mourinho has a strong record against teams managed by Manuel Pellegrini, having won eight out of 12 (with two defeats) in their Real Madrid-Malaga and Chelsea-City head-to-heads. Mourinho has four wins and a draw with home advantage.

City, of course, are the toughest domestic opponent Chelsea will face at Stamford Bridge and clearly capable of winning on the right day. However, in his title-winning journey through Europe's major leagues - from Chelsea to Inter and Real Madrid, and back again - Mourinho has encountered consistent difficulty in the big matches only against peak-form Barcelona.

Even with City's undoubted quality, Chelsea are a good bet at the odds.

******

The gap between West Brom and Tottenham is bigger than the odds indicate for Saturday's match at the Hawthorns, where the visitors are a solid wager on the Draw No Bet at around 1.910/11.

West Brom may well turn out to be one of the big improvers in the second half of the season under Tony Pulis but Tottenham have the potential to make further progress for Mauricio Pochettino.

The signs are there already, as Tottenham managed only 14 points from their first 11 league games under Pochettino - who at that time was under severe pressure - but took 23 from their second set of 11 matches.

Pochettino's team have lost only two of those last 11 league games (one of those defeats was away to Chelsea - the other was at Crystal Palace in Alan Pardew's first league game with the Eagles).

Saturday's match can be viewed as similar to the Palace encounter, with West Brom buoyed by Pulis's arrival (three wins and a draw from four matches), but Tottenham are well set up for this type of match-up.

This season Tottenham's away record against teams below them in the table is W5 D1 L1, which puts them exactly halfway to matching last season's record in that category (W10 D2 L2).

Even allowing for improvement from West Brom, it is unlikely they will show the form of a top-six side - and it is only in that category where Tottenham's loss rate rises significantly on the road.

With such a solid record in away games against the bulk of the Premier League, Tottenham are the form choice on the draw no bet.

Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to beat Manchester City @ 2.0621/20 (1pt)
Back Tottenham on Draw No Bet v West Brom @ 1.910/11 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 56 pts
Returned: 59.17 pts
P/L: +3.17 pts