пятница, 24 августа 2012 г.

Timeform Daily: Nunthorpe Stakes, Friday, York 15:40

Bated Breath (left) has finished runner-up at Group 1 level four times

Timeform give their verdict on a very competitive renewal of this Group 1 sprint...

Bated Breath emerged successful in Temple Stakes at Sandown on reappearance and beaten by only length in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot last time. Belated Group 1 success awaits here with conditions to suit.

Confessional stepped up on 5f handicap win at Chester in May when third in a Group 3 in July. Back-to-form fourth behind Ortensia 3 weeks ago having been below form here previously, but this requires more.

Dandy Boy's poor effort in July Cup easily excused (heavy ground) and best judged on his win in the Wokingham prior to that. Not short of speed but in at deep end on first attempt at 5f.

Hamish McGonagall is a smart performer who has got better with age, responding well when landing C&D listed event last month. Possibly unsuited by undulations at Goodwood latest, but others have stronger claims.

Humidor progressed well last year, highlight being listed success at Doncaster in September. Arrested slide in fortunes this term when sixth at Goodwood latest, but seen to maximum effect there.

Kingsgate Native was the last 2-y-o to win the Nunthorpe (in 2007) and fourth last year. Now has almost 12-month absence to overcome, during which time he has moved from Sir Michael Stoute to Robert Cowell.

Masamah made a slow start this term but gradually returning to form which saw him win at Group 2 level in 2011, third to Ortensia at Goodwood before runner-up in Nottingham minor event.

Monsieur Joe without a win in Britain since successful in handicap over C&D at this fixture 2 years ago, and that situation unlikely to change here despite taking listed event at Deauville on latest start.

Nocturnal Affair was a useful in South Africa and won the Portland in Britain last year. Further improvement at Meydan this season when landing a handicap in February, but that form still short of what's required here.

Secret Witness ran well in handicaps on consecutive days here in May, winning over 6f on first occasion. Generally peformed with credit in handicaps since, but this an entirely different proposition.

Sole Power won this race in 2010. Just denied by Bated Breath in Temple Stakes in May, and length behind same horse when third (did best of those held up) in King's Stand latest. One for the shortlist.

Spirit Quartz has plenty of smart performances to his name this term, including when second to Ortensia at Goodwood latest. Yet to get head in front, however, and that unlikely to change in this field.

Tangerine Trees Has looked a shadow of the horse who won the Prix de L'Abbaye de Longchamp last October in his 3 runs this season, only eighth behind Ortensia at Goodwood last time.

Tiddliwinks took the Duke of York Stakes here and the Greenlands Stakes (both 6f) at the Curragh in May. Possibly unsuited by soft ground when below best there last time but this requires even more.

Bogart won 3 times as a juvenile, and put up a smart effort to finish fourth in the Duke of York Stakes here in May. Below form since, however, and easy enough to look elsewhere.

Pearl Secret proved unbeaten in 4 starts (all at around 5f, including 2 here), landing odds in listed event at Sandown latest. This obviously a step up in class but more than capable of making presence felt.

Beyond Desire looks suited by 5f nowadays and took form to another level when winning Prix de Saint-Georges (by short head from Monsieur Joe) at Longchamp in May. Well below that in 2 starts since, however.

Invincible Ash landed 5f Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh in 2011, and got her head in front in a well-contested Dubai event in March. Not at best since, though soft ground probably against her last time.

Ortensia is a smart Australian mare who won Al Quoz Sprint (by 1 lengths from Sole Power) in March and Group 2 at Goodwood (beat Spirit Quartz) at start of this month. Another bold bid expected.

Angels Will Fall built on free-going Windsor return when narrowly landing a 5f listed race at Ayr in June. Creditable 2 lengths fifth to Ortensia at Goodwood, despite hanging left, but this clearly demands more.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Bated Breath
2. Ortensia
3. Sole Power

Timeform View: A cracking renewal of the Nunthorpe with Bated Breath fancied to gain a much-warranted first Group 1 success. Recent Goodwood scorer Ortensia, 2010 winner Sole Power and the highly promising Pearl Secret head the dangers.

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