Oscars betting is a popular market. This article looks at historical data to see if it’s possible to predict the winner of the Oscars by looking at other key ceremonies?
As we approach the end of the film awards season, bettors turn their attention to the main attraction: The Oscars. The nominations for the prestigious accolades were announced on January 15th, and that same day odds for the winner of the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress were posted at Pinnacle Sports.
Predicting the outcome of the Oscars
The key question for bettors is can you predict the winner of these prestigious awards by looking at other results? Three influential awards ceremonies – the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice – have already handed out prizes for these categories, this season.
How reliable are these as predictors for Oscar glory? The table below highlights the 2014 winners for the four categories at these three award ceremonies.
2014 Winners in the Road to the Oscars
Golden Globes
Critics' Choice
SAG
Best Picture
Boyhood
Boyhood
Birdman
Best Actor
Eddie Redmayne
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress
Julianne Moore
Julianne Moore
Julianne Moore
Best Director
Richard Linklater
Richard Linklater
N/A
The diagram below shows how often these awards chose the same winner for the four categories as the Oscars. (For the Golden Globes the data is a combination of both drama and musical and comedy.)
Best Picture: Is Boyhood nailed-on to win?
The stats suggest the Oscar for best picture will go to either Boyhood, or Birdman. Only twice – Braveheart (1995) and Million Dollar Baby (2004) – since 1995 have all three-award ceremonies failed to pick the eventual winner.
The statistics show that the Golden Globes have predicted the Oscar winner for the Best Picture 66.67% of the time since 1960. Second are the Critics’ Choice with a prediction success rate of 63.16% since 1995, and finally the SAG (47.37%).
Furthermore, the Critics’ Choice awards have picked the same Best Picture winner as the Oscars for seven out of the last eight years (the exception being The Social Network in 2010) and have been correct 70% of the time over the past ten years.
Either way both ceremonies chose Boyhood as the winner of the best Picture, which opened as the 1.08 favourite with Pinnacle Sports, before drifting to 2.550.
Interestingly Birdman is now the favourite after shortening from 17.160 (5.83% chance of winning) to 1.735 (57.64% chance of winning). The 2014 SAG winner would become the third film since 1995 alongside Crash (2005) and The King’s Speech (2010) to win an Oscar when selecting a different film compared to both the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice.
Best Actor & Actress: Are Moore & Redmayne ‘shoe ins’?
The Golden Globes and the SAG have been the most reliable ceremonies at predicting the Best Actor and Actress Oscar winners.
The statistics highlight that the Golden Globes have picked the same best actor as the Oscars 75.93% of the time since 1960, while the SAG prediction success is 78.95%, including picking the same winner in the last decade.
This year the two ceremonies selected Eddie Redmayne for his role in the theory of everything. However the Critics’ Choice went for Michael Keaton in Birdman. Only once before have the Oscars sided with the Critics’ Choice over the Golden Globes and SAG, when Russell Crowe won in 2000 for his role in Gladiator.
The market has moved in the direction of Redmayne after opening with odds of 2.530 he is now favourite at 1.333 – giving him a 75.02% chance of winning, while Keaton has drifted from 1.667 to 4.189.
The best Actress winner sees the SAG have a better success rate than the other two awards at 73.68%, while the Golden Globes are slightly behind on 70.37%, despite picking the last five Oscar winners.
All three ceremonies have selected the same actress prior to the Oscars – Julianne Moore. In the nine years that all three have selected the same winner, the actress has gone on to win at the Oscars 88.8% of the time.
Pinnacle Sports have Moore as the massive 1.029 favourite, giving her an implied probability of 97.18%.
History doesn’t look good for second favourite Reece Witherspoon (10.230) with Kate Winslet in 2008 being the only time since 1995 that either the Golden Globes or the SAG have not picked the eventual Oscar winner.
Best Director: Will Linklater win an Oscar?
In comparison to the best Actor/Actress awards it's the Critics Choice winner that bettors should take more notice of when selecting the Oscar winner for Best Director.
The Critics’ Choice has picked the same Best Director as the Oscars on 78.95% of occasions compared to just 50% by the Golden Globes. In fact the Globes have predicted the winner just once in the last five years.
Similarly to Alfonso Cuarón last year, Boyhood director Richard Linklater won both the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice award.
Despite this he is no longer the favourite as his odds of winning have drifted to 2.360, with Birdman's Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu now the favourite at 1.806.
How influential are previous Oscar nominations?
We have highlighted trends for Oscar winners based on winners at three influential ceremonies leading up to the Oscars, but how significant are past Oscar nominations in predicting a winner?
The graph below looks at three Oscar categories – Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director – in terms of:
Whether the winner had won an Oscar before
If they had been nominated before?
The average times a winner was nominated before winning?
How many winners had won at their first attempt?
Interestingly and somewhat surprisingly, repeat Oscar winners are rare. Since 1960 Only 11% of Best Actor winners had claimed an Oscar previously, which is slightly worse than Best Director (17%) and Best Actress (19%).
None of the directors or actors we have odds for have previously won an Oscar, while Reese Witherspoon and Marion Cotillard have both won one apiece. Given Julianne Moore is as short as 1.029, it appears this trend will continue.
31 directors have won an Oscar on their first nomination and this trend could end this year, as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is the favourite. Although, Richard Linklater is the second favourite in the betting, and this is his first nomination.
On average it takes 2.37 nominations to win the Best Actor Oscar, while 56% of winners had been nominated before. However of this years candidates only Bradley Cooper has been nominated previously, leaving the way for first time nominees Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton vying to become the 25th first nominee winner.
48% of Best Actress winners have been nominated for the award before, this year only Rosamund Pike and Felicity Jones haven’t been nominated previously as they aim to become the 28th actress to win an Oscar at their first attempt.
Historically it has taken an average of 2.65 nominations before winning the award. Current favourite Moore fits the trend having been nominated twice before without winning.
This article shows that despite statistical anomalies previous award winners in the same year can presage an Oscar, and with more research bettors can make educated predictions based on earlier key ceremony outcomes when betting on Oscar winners.
Get the best 87th Academy Awards odds at Pinnacle Sports.
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