Bundesliga Betting: Werder's renaissance to continue against tiring Augsburg

Viktor Skripnik has transformed Werder Bremen's season

Kevin Hatchard's back with his best Bundesliga bets, and this week he's concentrating on some of the division's less glamorous clubs.

Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg
Saturday February 14, 14:30

When Werder Bremen lost 1-0 at home to FC Cologne in October, the northern giants looked doomed to relegation. Coach Robin Dutt sat in his dugout and stared into the middle-distance, painfully aware of the axe that was about to fall. Bremen decided to appoint Dutt's replacement from within, and although U-23 coach Viktor Skripnik had credit with Werder fans because of his time as a player at the Weserstadion, it was still a risky move.

That gamble has paid off handsomely, as Werder now sit eighth in the standings, a healthy seven points clear of the dropzone. As a former defender, Skripnik knew he had to address the side's problems at the back, and on his watch the goals-against average has dropped from 2.56 per game to 1.64.

The other thing Skripnik has managed to do is turn the Weserstadion back into a fortress. The fans finally have something to spark them into life, and since that insipid defeat to Cologne, Bremen have won five and drawn one of their six home games.

Things are going so well that star midfielder Zlatko Junuzovic is even thinking about signing a new contract. He looked certain to leave on a free transfer this summer, but the fact he is talking to the club about an extension speaks volumes about the feel-good factor Skripnik has created. Just to add to the positive vibes, top scorer Franco Di Santo is winning his race to be fit, with a thigh injury on the mend. Even if he doesn't make it, Opta tell us that his fellow striker Davie Selke has now been involved in seven goals in his last eight appearances, so he should provide good cover.

Saturday's clash with Augsburg will be far from easy. The Bavarians are fourth in the table, and have taken seven points from their three games in 2015. However, I sensed a bit of tension in their 2-2 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. FCA went 2-0 up in the first half, but let that lead slip, and could even have lost the game.

A glut of injury problems in defence is threatening to hamper Augsburg's European charge. Skipper Paul Verhaegh has been ruled out with a calf-injury, so Markus Feulner could switch over to right-back, with left-back Abdul Rahman Baba now back from the African Cup of Nations. Centre-back Jan-Ingwer Callsen-Bracker isn't fully fit after a dead leg, and you could tell he was struggling last week, as he allowed Frankfurt's Alex Meier to surge away and score the equaliser.

Augsburg have a good record against Werder, with just one defeat in seven, but I wonder whether Markus Weinzierl's men are starting to suffer from a lack of freshness. There hasn't been much squad rotation - eight of Weinzierl's preferred ten outfield players have started at least 16 of the 20 league games - and injuries are taking their toll. FCA have lost six of their ten away games, and I'm happy to back the hosts to win a tight one, using the Draw No Bet market for a bit of insurance.

Recommended Bet

Back Werder Bremen Draw No Bet at 1.910/11

Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
Saturday February 14, 14:30

Two of the Bundesliga's big hitters go head to head on Saturday, and Wolfsburg have every reason to be confident. The Opta stats show the Wolves have never had this many points (41) at this stage of a Bundesliga campaign, and they are unbeaten in eight matches.

New signing Andre Schurrle hit the ground running in his debut against Hoffenheim last week, providing two assists in a 3-0 win. He already looks to have an understanding with fellow Chelsea outcast Kevin De Bruyne, and the Belgian is on marvellous form, having bagged five goals and an assist since the winter break.

Leverkusen are just two points off the top four, but they have lost some of their early-season sparkle. Roger Schmidt's men are unbeaten at home, but have drawn four of their last five matches at the BayArena. They haven't scored more than once in a game since November, and young guns Karim Bellarabi and Hakan Calhanoglu have scored just three goals between them in the last eight matches.

Wolfsburg are 3.211/5 because they have never won at the BayArena, but they have a great chance to put that right against a side that is really struggling to find top gear. For insurance, use Draw No Bet, just in case the Bayer fans are made to endure yet another stalemate.

Recommended Bet

Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.26/5

Borussia Monchengladbach v FC Cologne
Saturday February 14, 14:30

This is one of the biggest derbies in German football, and when the teams met in Cologne earlier this season they played out a goalless draw that featured plenty of effort but little attacking inspiration. I'm expecting a similar outcome this time, as both teams are defending well but struggling to score.

Cologne are five points clear of the bottom three, and have kept clean sheets in four of their last five league games. Although cautious coach Peter Stoger takes the handbrake off a bit when his side are on the road (15 of Cologne's 21 goals have come away from home), I think he'll revert to his safety-first approach for this one.

Gladbach are still in the hunt for a top-four finish, but they were awful in last week's 1-0 defeat at Schalke. Against a side that had set up for a clean sheet and had no real intention of opening up, Lucien Favre's men were found wanting. When the Foals are given space to counter-attack, they can be devastating, but they really struggle to break down defensive teams.

Cologne will keep it tight and try to score from breaks and set pieces. Their last six league games have been all square at the break, as have four of Gladbach's last seven. I can see this being a carbon copy of the reverse fixture, so expect honours to be even after the first 45.

Recommended Bet

Back Draw in the Half Time market at 2.1411/10

Hannover v Paderborn
Sunday February 15, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 2

Paderborn were everyone's second-favourite team in the first half of the season. The club that has the smallest ground in the league, and doesn't even have a proper training ground, lit up the league with committed and attacking football. Andre Breitenreiter's men even topped the table after winning the reverse fixture against Hannover with a record-breaking 82-metre strike from Moritz Stoppelkamp.

However, the wheels on the Paderborn wagon have started to wobble, and there are fears they could come off entirely in the next few weeks. Opta tell us SCP have now gone ten Bundesliga games without a win, they are yet to score their first goal of 2015, and they are just a point above the bottom three.

Hannover aren't on great form either. They have won just one of their last nine league games, a run which has replaced aspirations of European qualification with fears about the drop. Tayfun Korkut's men have only scored six goals in their last six outings, and they have the worst attack in the top ten.

Paderborn have gone into their shell a little bit since losing form and confidence, and I don't expect Hannover to risk too much either. On that basis I really like the look of backing No in the Both Teams To Score market, especially as Paderborn have scored just one goal in their last seven away games.

Recommended Bet

Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.1411/10

Kevin will be commentating on Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg and Hannover v Paderborn for TuneIn and talkSPORT. For live radio commentaries, search "Bundesliga English" on the TuneIn app or website, or follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinhatchard for details

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 83

Points Returned: 81.77

P/L: -1.23 points