US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Gasquet to cruise past overmatched Lorenzi

The Gasquet backhand should dominate Lorenzi today

Thursday was another good day for Sean Calvert at the US Open on Thursday and he's back to sort through Friday's 16 men's matches for the betting value...

It was another profitable day's tennis betting in what's been a great opening week to the 2014 US Open on Thursday.

After my opening bet of the day was voided by a retirement from Michael Llodra - his 29th in total in all competitions (plus five walkovers) - but the second provided a nice priced winner.

John Isner took the opening set against Jan-Lennard Struff by the score of 7-6, which meant that my 6.05/1 set one correct score wager was a winner, before the first unsuccessful pick of the week came moments later when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won his opener too quickly at 6-3.

Friday sees the remaining 16 second round matches take centre stage and having successfully sided with Ivo Karlovic earlier this week I'm sticking with the big man again in what should be another good match-up for him.

It's set to be a little cooler in New York today at around 24C, which will help the big man in terms of fatigue, while still playing quick, which is not good news for Marcel Granollers.

The Spaniard has a really poor record against the big servers on my list, with a 1-8 career record on outdoor hard and 7-27 overall, with a 4-10 mark in tie breaks in those matches.

His only prior meeting with Karlovic ended in a win by way of retirement for the Croatian when Granollers quit a set behind in Metz two years ago and his only two wins on all surfaces against the big servers in the last 13 were both over Lukas Rosol.

Granollers was a surprisingly easy winner over Jurgen Melzer in round one, with the Austrian admitting he was poor, with unforced errors being the key there, and Melzer had also said his shoulder wasn't 100 percent before that match.

I still would have expected a grind though with those two, but today the 1.558/15 about Karlovic looks the call.

Richard Gasquet should have a comfortable time against Paulo Lorenzi and I think the Frenchman will cover a minus 8.5 game handicap in that one at around 1.910/11.

Lorenzi got lucky to achieve his first ever grand slam win in round one when Yoshihito Nishioka got sick and eventually retired after two and a bit painful sets a few days ago in the heat, but his luck should run out today.

The Italian is not exactly renowned for close losses in majors, with Roger Federer beating him by 13 games at Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic by 16 here two years ago and by the same margin that year in Melbourne.

He's also suffered a 12 game loss to Tomas Berdych and Roberto Bautista-Agut was a nine game victor on Lorenzi's favoured clay at the French Open this year.

Gasquet has won all three priors against Lorenzi in straight sets, with the Italian never getting closer than 6-3 in any of the sets and Lorenzi's interest is likely to fade in the third if all goes to plan.

I also like the idea of backing Gasquet to win the opener 6-2 in that one at a tasty 5.59/2 on a Cash Out basis.

Elsewhere, I would expect Fabio Fognini and Adrian Mannarino to be a real grind and the over 37.5 games looks good there, while Dudi Sela could also push Grigor Dimitrov past their 35.5 total games mark.

Dominic Thiem plays his stable mate Ernests Gulbis today and the Austrian has at least a set in him there I would think, while Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych and Feli Lopez should encounter few issues in victory.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to beat Granollers at 1.558/15
Back Gasquet -8.5 games to beat Lorenzi at 1.910/11

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Gasquet to win set one 6-2 at 5.59/2

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1050.30