среда, 17 сентября 2014 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Los Leones to roar

Bilbao knocked out Napoli to get this far

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Athletic Club (HOME) @ 2.0 (1/1) - Live on Sky Sports Interactive at 19:45 BST

Athletic Club are through to the Champions League group phase thanks to a superb 4-2 aggregate win over Napoli at the Play-off stage. The draw has been kind to them as they have avoided all the big-guns and if they play how they do in La Liga, they have a real chance of making the last 16.

Winning at home is going to be important and that's something that Ernesto Valverde's side can usually be relied upon to do. Since the beginning of last season, Bilbao have won 17 of 24 at San Mams and that includes a victory over Barcelona.

Shakhtar Donetsk have made an excellent start to their domestic campaign as they've taken a maximum 18 points from their opening half dozen fixtures. This is a big step up in class though and while they have enjoyed some success in this competition in recent years, their squad is a bit weaker now and I'm not overly confident that they'll make it out of the group.

Bet 2: Sao Paulo (AWAY) @ 2.75 (7/4)  

Sao Paulo have been flying in recent weeks, culminating in a 2-0 win over leaders, Cruzeiro, at the weekend. They are now a clear second in the table - just four points off top spot.

If they want to have any chance of winning the title they will have to keep this run going as Cruzeiro are a very good team who won't drop too many more points when it matters. While this is a tough away trip, Muricy Ramalho's side have already won five times on the road this term - including three of their last four.

Coritiba are down in 18th place and although they picked up a much needed win over Chapecoense last week, they were then beaten at Santos on Sunday. 

Despite their woes, 'Coxa' have only lost three times on home soil so far this season, but their opponents tonight are a team in form and it will take a huge effort for them to avoid defeat.

Bet 3: Bayern Munich v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6) - Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 BST

German champions, Bayern Munich, botched their defence of the Champions League last season as they suffered a humiliating exit at the hands of Real Madrid - 5-0 on aggregate. 

Pep Guardiola hasn't panicked though and the former Barcelona boss has only really made two key additions to his squad over the summer in the shape of Xabi Alonso and Robert Lewandowski - the latter of who had already signed prior to the end of last year.

The one thing Bayern aren't lacking is attacking talent. Lewandowski, Muller, Gotze, Ribery and Robben have all scored at the highest level and the Germans usually net at least twice at the Allianz Arena.

Manchester City were knocked out by Barcelona in the last 16 of this competition last term but they did record an impressive 3-2 victory on this ground in the group stage.

Manuel Pellegrini's men came back from 2-0 down to win that game and it's interesting to note that all six of their group matches went over 2.5 goals. In fact, they averaged a whopping 4.66 goals each time.

Bet 4: Roma v CSKA Moscow (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.83 (5/6) - Live on Sky Sports Interactive at 19:45 BST

Roma were considered as one of the dark horses to do well in the Champions League prior to the draw but after being pitted against both Man City and Bayern Munich, they now face an uphill battle just to make it out of their group. 

Winning home and away against tonight's opponents is going to be vital and while they should get the job done this evening, I can't see it being high-scoring. Rudi Garca's men have played twice so far this season and both matches went under 2.5 goals as they beat Fiorentina 2-0 and Empoli 1-0.

CSKA Moscow are expected to be the group whipping boys and they will do well to pick up more than a point or two. They lost five of their six group games last season and while they were all high-scoring affairs, the one thing that they should have learned is that they can't play such an open style of football.

Recommended Multiple

Back Athletic Club @ 2.0 (1/1)
Back Sao Paulo @ 2.75 (7/4)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Bayern Munich v Man City @ 1.66 (4/6)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Roma v CSKA Moscow @ 1.83 (5/6)

The Multiple pays approximately 16.71 (16/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 37 pts
Returned: 83.56 pts
P/L: + 46.56 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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