Liverpool v Middlesbrough: Reds won't convince again

Brendan Rodgers has made a few errors at the start of 2014/15

Michael Lintorn is daring to take Liverpool on again in the handicap markets due to their uninspiring form...

Liverpool v Middlesbrough
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Liverpool 1.511/2, Middlesbrough 7.06/1, The Draw 4.94/1

Of the many analyses of Liverpool's three defeats in five Premier League encounters, few have been as precise as Jamie Carragher's: "After losing Luis Suarez, they were never going to score 100-plus goals this season, so had to be better defensively; they actually look worse now."

Brendan Rodgers has done far more good than bad on Merseyside, but it is difficult to understand some of his defensive decision-making. Why sell Pepe Reina if the endgame was to replace him with an older Victor Valdes, complete with signing-on-fee and rustiness from a long-term injury absence?

Why let Daniel Agger leave so cheaply when Mamadou Sakho didn't convince in his debut campaign, there were doubts over Dejan Lovren's big-club pedigree following his stint at Lyon and Kolo Toure hasn't been deemed worthy of a single minute on the pitch? Of course, injuries to the eternally undervalued Glen Johnson and Jon Flanagan haven't helped operation clean sheet either.

Usually, a home Capital One Cup tie against a Championship side would be a welcome break from a poor Premier League start. However, the combination of successive domestic defeats to Aston Villa and West Ham and Middlesbrough being on a three-match winning streak (with four in five away) has caused a sense of unease.

Liverpool don't have an impressive record at home to lower-league teams in the competition. They were taken to extra time by Notts County last term, eliminated on penalties by Northampton in 2010/11, snuck past Crewe 2-1 in 2008/09 and beat Cardiff by the same scoreline in 2007/08.

In total, they haven't conquered any of the previous nine Capital One Cup visitors to Anfield by more than one goal, a run stretching a few months shy of a decade. Middlesbrough haven't lost by a margin steeper than one goal in 14 Capital One Cup games, a sequence dating back six years.

After recent success backing Aston Villa +2 and Ludogorets +2 on Merseyside, the statistics point us towards laying Liverpool -1 as the best bet for this clash at 2.111/10. This wager, which covers every outcome bar a home win by two or more goals, delivered a profit in each of the Reds' latest six fixtures as hosts - and nine of the last ten.

Both teams to score

Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet in six attempts this season, and two in ten at Anfield since the start of February, while Middlesbrough have achieved only one away shutout in four despite their three victories in that period.

Best Bet: Lay Liverpool (-1) to win @ 2.111/10
Other Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.738/11