Against All Odds: Brazilian heavyweights to entertain

Luis Fabiano has four in 11 this year for Sao Paulo

There was another success for Paul Robinson last night and he looks to follow up in Brazil today as Sao Paulo host Flamengo in what he's predicting to be a goal-fest.

Sao Paulo v Flamengo
Tuesday September 25, 02:00 BST

Sao Paulo have been enjoying a fine campaign as they're up in second place in the Campeonato, but as they typically do, just as they're getting themselves into a great position, they go and throw in a couple of losses. 

'Tricolor' trail leaders, Cruzeiro, by seven points but that could have been much smaller if they hadn't have lost their last two matches. Both of them were on the road, but they were nine unbeaten at that point - seven wins - and if you want to win the title, you can't really afford back to back defeats.

It's the goal-side of things we're concentrating on tonight and three of their last four have gone over 2.5. In fact, all three went over 3.5, with the 4-2 win at Botafogo and the 3-2 loss at Corinthians, sailing over with ease. Muricy Ramalho's men have had two of their last four at home feature three goals or more and they are the second highest scorers in the division.

Flamengo endured a miserable start to their season but since Vanderlei Luxemburgo was installed as head coach back in July, things have turned around dramatically. Eight wins from 14 outings in all competitions is a far cry from how they began and 'Big Mengo' are now up to 11th in the table, with a Copa Libertadores place not too unrealistic a target.

As far as the goals go, with 20 scored and 27 conceded so far this term, their fixtures have been averaging 2.04 goals per 90 minutes. Two of their last three away from the Maracan have gone over 2.5 though and they've netted six times in their last four outings on their travels.

The hosts are a hugely difficult team to predict but they usually score goals, while the visitors are full of confidence and are more than capable of finding the net themselves. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.814/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Flamengo @ 1.814/5

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 256 pts
Returned: 268.11 pts
P/L: + 12.11 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)