Premier League Stats Review: Swans a solid bet to continue impressive form for Monk

Garry Monk's Swansea have especially good figures against the lesser teams

Andrew Atherley is impressed by Swansea's record under Garry Monk and expects another positive result at Sunderland on Saturday...

Swansea travel to Sunderland on Saturday full of confidence, in good scoring form and with a solid record of achievement in this type of match-up. It all adds up to good value for another positive result.

The Swans continued their strong start to the season with a 3-0 League Cup victory over Everton on Tuesday night, but it is not just current form that makes them a good bet on Saturday.

The bigger factor is their solid long-term record against teams outside the Premier League elite. Last season, while taking only two points from a possible 42 when playing the top seven, Swansea lost only six out of 24 against the rest of the division and their win rate was close to 50% (11 out of 24).

Notably, their figures were broadly similar at home and on the road - the loss rate (25%) was exactly the same and the win rate dipped only slightly in away games to 42%.

Those form lines have been replicated in the early part of this season. Swansea have lost their last two league games but those were against the current top two, Chelsea and Southampton, and they have taken maximum points from their other three matches. The basic rule is that Swansea are still vulnerable against the better teams but solid against struggling or out-of-form teams.

Sunderland are both struggling and out of form, having had a winless start in the Premier League even though three of their first five games were against teams who are also in the bottom five.

That makes them perfect opponents for Swansea, who seem to be improving under Garry Monk. The 35-year-old is less than eight months into the job and yet recently he was selected by Gazzetta Dello Sport as one of the four young wizards of European club coaching - premature perhaps, but his figures are especially good against the lesser teams.

Since he took over from Michael Laudrup, Monk's record against teams that finished outside last season's top seven is W7 D2 L3 (a win rate of 58% and a loss rate of 25%) and of course that does not include this season's opening-day win at Manchester United. It is arguable that those figures are boosted by the fact that most of the matches have been at the Liberty stadium, but Monk's away record against teams outside last season's top seven is W2 D1 L1.

One of the away wins was 3-1 at Sunderland in the final game of last season and, while it is often debatable whether too much significance should be read into final-day results, that was evidence of Swansea's scoring power in this type of match-up.

Under Monk, they have scored in 10 of their 12 games against teams outside last season's top seven and won seven of them. On the road, their record in that category is W2 D1 L0 when scoring.

That is significant, as Sunderland have won only one out of 11 at home in the league under Gus Poyet when their opponents have scored (losing seven).

Swansea are well worth considering for the win at 2.747/4 but, even though the odds are lower, their record makes them even better value on the draw no bet at around 1.9520/21.

Recommended Bet
Back Swansea on Draw No Bet v Sunderland at 1.9520/21

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 9 pts
Returned: 8.4 pts
P/L: -0.6 pts