Champions League: Back Spanish clubs to shine and Roma to enjoy City trip

Luiz and co have struggled this season

In the latest edition of his new Champions League column for 2014/15, European football expert James Horncastle picks out five potential bets from the action this week...

1) Old Lady won't lay down for the Mattress makers

Diego Simeone claimed with justification on Saturday that Atletico's 4-0 win against unbeaten Europa League holders Sevilla was his side's best performance of the season so far and Los Colchoneros will be hoping to replicate it as they host Italian champions Juventus at the Vicente Calderon on Wednesday night.

Last year's finalists need a result after their 3-2 defeat to Olympiacos in Athens a fortnight ago. Victors over Champions League winners Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup last month, they don't fear anyone.

However, Juventus have been perfect in all competitions this season and haven't conceded since late April. The last goal Gigi Buffon allowed came at the World Cup when Italy lost to Uruguay. Coincidentally it was Atletico's Diego Godin who got it from, where else, but a set-piece.

Will Juventus keep their clean sheet intact? Their style seems more suited to Europe under Max Allegri. Back the draw at 3.3512/5.

2) Blanc under pressure to beat Barca

The anecdote goes like this: Laurent Blanc walks into an Ipanema restaurant with PSG president Nasser al-Khelafi. He bumps into Roy Hodgson. The England manager knows Blanc but doesn't know who he's with and asks the former centre-back: "Why did your club buy David Luiz? He makes mistakes every game. €50m for him is crazy!" It was the cause of some embarrassment for al-Khelafi who had presented the Brazilian as the best in the world.

At fault in Saturday's draw with Toulouse, Luiz has done little to justify the tag. Held six times in all competitions this season, PSG are fourth in Ligue 1 and the pressure is on Blanc. Unfortunately for him, former club Barcelona are next at the Parc fresh from obliterating Granada 6-0 and yet to let in a goal. The odds are against PSG lifting their malaise against the La Liga leaders. Back at Barca win a 2.186/5.

3) Roma to give City the blues

Manchester holds no fond memories for Roma supporters. Beaten 7-1 by United in the second leg of their quarter-final at Old Trafford in seven years ago, many forget they had gone into that game with a 2-1 aggregate lead.

Roma had to go back twice the following season first in the group stage then once again in the last eight only losing 1-0 on both those occasions. Perhaps the blue side of Manchester will hold more luck for them than the red.

This Roma side have maximum points in Serie A, thrashed CSKA Moscow 5-1 on their return to the Champions League, possess winning experience in this competition in Ashley Cole, Seydou Keita and Douglas Maicon, a crop of talented young players and the evergreen Francesco Totti who is still making the difference. Daniele De Rossi is a big miss but City are too short at 1.75/7 - lay the hosts.

4) Ajax exasperated away at APOEL

It's approaching a decade since Ajax last made it out of the group stages. In the meantime Wednesday's opponents APOEL have gone further, reaching the quarter-finals a couple of seasons ago. Only beaten 1-0 by Barcelona at the Camp Nou on Matchday 1, it's been said they faced a second string Catalan XI, but Lionel Messi and Neymar both played the full 90 minutes.

A Lasse Schne free-kick earned Ajax a point on PSG's visit to the Amsterdam Arena earlier this month and their form has picked up with a hat-trick of wins since, including a 1-0 triumph over Feyenoord in the derby.

Unable to win away from home in this competition for three years, though, the likes of Zenit and Porto have fallen at the GSP stadium in recent memory. Back another famous APOEL scalp at 3.1511/5. 

5) Gotze to chill CSKA

Bayern's players spent part of their first night in Moscow ahead of Tuesday's match against CSKA standing outside in the cold, shrouded in blankets after their hotel's fire alarm was set off. Preparation wasn't ideal on their last visit here a year ago either. Bayern had to train in a ballroom but still waltzed to a 3-1 win.

Mario Gotze found the net that night and has been in irresistible form of late. Scorer of the clinching goal in the World Cup final, he has hit three in his last two games for the German champions. Back him to continue his streak and to open Bayern's account as the first goalscorer at 5.69/2. 

Recommended Bets
Back the draw in Atletico and Juventus at 3.3512/5
Back Barcelona to beat PSG at 2.186/5
Lay Manchester City v Roma at 1.75/7
Back APOEL to beat Ajax at 3.1511/5
Back Mario Gotze as first goalscorer in Bayern v CSKA at 5.69/2