How to find value in the Europa League

How to find value in the Europa League

By Michael Gales Sep 10, 2014

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The Europa League is an unusual competition, mixing teams from across Europe with contrasting prioritisation of its importance. Understanding more about the UEL’s format, such as the coefficients, foreign strongholds and who takes it seriously, is key to successful betting.

Understand who is taking the tournament seriously

The Europa League can be viewed as the poor cousin of UEFA’s elite competition – seen as more of a hindrance than an opportunity for bigger European teams.

Those teams that aspire to join Europe’s elite prioritise domestic success – offering the Holy Grail of Champions League participation – ahead of the demands of travel to some of European soccer’s more remote outposts.

The poor opinion that Europe’s bigger leagues have of the Europa League may have been behind UEFA’s decision to change the rules to reward the winner with a Champions League place making the competition potentially more valuable.

Keep on top of current coefficients

Bettors should understand UEFA’s European coefficient tables – club & country – instead of relying on preconceptions and traditional ideas of European soccer hierarchies as a betting guide.

For instance bettors can be guilty of over-estimating the value of teams they are familiar with, are more fashionable, or have had historical European success rather than looking at recent form.

The UEFA coefficients are based on the results of clubs competing in the five previous seasons of the UEFA Champions League and Europa League. (Click here to see latest coefficient tables).

For example, Real Madrid are unsurprisingly top of the coefficient table after appearing in the last four Champions League semi-finals and lifting the trophy last year.

However, Lazio were once Champions League regulars but have slipped to 38th, while Benfica are 5th above the likes of Arsenal (10th) and Borussia Dortmund (12th).

In addition Portugal (4th) are now ranked higher than Italy (5th), ten years ago this would have been inconceivable, but perhaps highlights the downfall of Italian soccer.

The coefficient system is not without its detractors, however. Because the number is averaged over five years, one poor season can skew data dramatically downwards.

Likewise, if a team starts to lose form over three years, but won a title five years ago, the coefficient might be artificially high. Therefore it’s important to not just examine the overall coefficient, but the five-year numbers it’s generated from.

Thorough research pays off

When betting on individual Europa League matches, research is vital. By understanding as much about both teams will give the bettor the best chance of making a profit.

In addition to teams that rank highly in their domestic league, the Europa League is riddled with teams who have qualified as domestic cup final winners or losers.

Traditionally, league qualifiers show greater reliability than their cup-qualifying rivals, although they have proven they can raise their game for an occasion.

As with the Champions League, the qualification starts in early summer with some of the continent’s small domestic leagues featuring effectively amateur teams.

Study domestic form

Researching the domestic form of clubs across the continent is a great way to gain knowledge on who are on unbeaten runs, who are struggling, which teams are defensively solid and which teams struggle to score.

Understanding a clubs form before betting will give the punter the best chance to make informed judgments, and make sure they don’t miss out on opportunities to make a profit.

Beware the foreign fortress

Bettors can underestimate European teams in their own stadium, by assuming that because they are a weaker – biased preconceptions can impact how bettors view teams – team than their opposition, they won’t be good at home.

Realising which teams have a fortress at home is key to ensuring you are on the right track to make a profit on your Europa League betting journey.

Champions League dropouts

When selecting your Europa League betting picks you should always consider the teams that have entered the knockout stages after being eliminated from the Champions League.

Last season saw European giants Juventus, Benfica and Ajax take the step down from Europe’s bigger club competition.

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