Johnson appears to be too good for Cariaso

Johnson appears to be too good for Cariaso

By Gary Wise Sep 17, 2014

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On September 27th, Demetrious Johnson looks to make his fifth UFC Flyweight title defence against Chris Cariaso in what appears to be a mismatch. Below, we look at reasons Cariaso might offer value, along with some thoughts on other UFC 178 matches.

Cariaso has a puncher’s chance

Demetrious Johnson is one of the best fighters in the world. The 28-year-old champion is presently ranked 4th in the official UFC pound-for-pound rankings and has enjoyed six consecutive wins. He’s never been knocked out or submitted and is widely recognised as the best fighter in his division, which he’s dominated. So, why would you bet against him in a fight against a 33-year-old?

Simply, the answer comes down to the puncher’s chance and long, long odds.  Johnson’s opponent, Chris Cariaso, opened at 9.65 and has since climbed drifted to 10.25 in Pinnacle Sports’ markets, suggesting early bettors didn’t like the value inherent in that opening line. There are few reasons they may want to:

Cariaso has won his last three fights in the flyweight division after an initial adjustment was needed to dropping ten pounds in weight class.

While Cariaso only has three knockouts over the course of his career, one of them did come at flyweight.

Cariaso is a lefty, offering a style Johnson hasn’t seen much of recently. Of Johnson’s last nine UFC fights, only those against Joseph Benavidez have provided southpaw opposition. Johnson won both those matches, but one was by a quick knockout that didn’t offer much in the way of appraisal; the other was a split decision victory.

This fight will be Johnson’s 11th in the UFC and 24th overall. Even the strongest jaws eventually succumb to the wear and tear of absorbing strikes from UFC athletes.

A look at Fightmetric.com match analysis profiles highlights the two fighters are very similar at striking, with comparable strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, strikes absorbed per minute and striking defence numbers.

Matt Serra – who defeated champion Georges St. Pierre in 2007 – and TJ Dillashaw – who defeated featherweight champion Renan Berao earlier this year – provide us examples of extreme underdogs who have shown us there’s a diminishing return on betting massive favourites in MMA.

In short, there’s a very legitimate question as to whether any UFC-level athlete is as much a longshot to win as our markets suggest Cariaso is, because of the nature of the sport. One punch can end a fight, and while Johnson is tough to hit, the numbers show he’s far from impossible to hit. That should make the odds on Cariaso tempting.

A few other thoughts on UFC 178

If you’re a bettor who wants to bet on an exciting fight, the match pitting Donald Cerrone against Eddie Alvarez will suit. Rarely do either fighter hear the final bell; Cerrone is known to chase the UFC’s bonuses aggressively, while Alvarez is thought of as being amongst the best fighters in the world.

Cerrone, who has a healthy ego, will take his duties as welcoming committee for Alvarez’s UFC emergence seriously, but the question is whether he has more than a puncher’s chance himself; Alvarez averages almost five takedown attempts per fight with a high success rate and strong submission defence. If Cerrone can’t keep Alvarez at a distance with his striking, he’ll have a long, or indeed short night.

If you’re looking for an edge on Dominick Cruz vs. Takeya Mizugaki, consult a medical professional. Cruz is a heavy favourite in our markets, likely based on his pedigree as a former UFC champion – forced to vacate – and former top 10 pound-for pound fighter. While the one-time level of his skills isn’t in doubt, for a fighter whose legendary quickness was the basis of dominance, multiple torn ACL injuries can have a profound and lasting effect. His opponent, Tikeya Mizugaki, has won five consecutive UFC fights and may offer value at 4.10 if the opinions of your consulting physician on Cruz’s potential mobility are dissenting ones.

When betting on the Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes match, it’s important to remember the must steeper talent curve in the women’s division, as written about here.

While Nunes has two TKO wins in two tries during her UFC tenure, the two victims had a combined one win in UFC action, so there’s still a legitimate question of her authenticity. Records like Zingano’s (8-0 4 Kos, 3 subs) don’t come around very often, and neither do established women fighters like Meisha Tate to dot a resume.

Click here for the latest UFC 178 odds.

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