La Liga Betting: Valencia and Sevilla on the road to victory

Valencia have made a flying start to La Liga 2014/15

For one week only, Real Madrid are banished from UK TV screens, which means a chance for some of the chasing pack to shine, says Tobias Gourlay

Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Atletico 1.511/2 Celta 8.415/2 draw 4.47/2

Two unbeaten teams meet at the Vicente Calderon on Saturday evening.

Since our last column Atletico have won a city derby at the Bernabeu, but lost their first Champions League group game 3-2 at Olympiakos. Striker Mario Mandzukic broke his nose in Greece and misses out this weekend.

Atletico have won 4/4 against Celta since the Galicians returned to La Liga in 2012. They went unbeaten at home last season (W15-D4-L0) and started this campaign with a 2-1 win over Eibar.

Celta have lost 8/8 on the road to top-four finishers. There aren't any strong patterns to those defeats so, although Diego Simeone is still banished from the touchline, we'll back a straightforward home win. 

Recommended Bet
1pt - Back Atletico @ 1.511/2

Espanyol v Malaga
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Espanyol 2.26/5 Malaga 3.953/1 draw 3.412/5

Heads up: the last two runnings of this fixture have finished goalless.

Espanyol are winless in 11 right now (W0-D1-L2 this term), while Malaga have scored just once in three outings this term, although that single strike has been enough to gather four points.

The visitors have kept a couple of clean sheets and the three they conceded at Valencia came in a game they had to play most of with 10 men.

It's tempting to go Under 2.5 Goals but 1.75/7 looks tight when you realise that both teams have scored in nine of Espanyol's last 10 home and away.

No bet.

Cordoba v Sevilla
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Cordoba 4.47/2 Sevilla 2.021/1 draw 3.55/2

Sevilla have grabbed seven points from a possible nine so far and start as favourites to take another three from some fellow Andalusians on Sunday.

A couple of years ago it took Unai Emery a long to time to coax a first away win out of his men, but Football Form Labs data shows that last term they went W6-D2-L2 on the road to teams that finished in the wrong half.

Cordoba have started their first top-flight campaign for more than 40 years with a defeat (to Real Madrid) and a couple of draws. Just a small bet on the visitors then.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Sevilla @ 2.021/1

Levante v Barcelona
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Levante 20.019/1 Barcelona 1.192/11 draw 8.615/2

Bottom versus top.

The only La Liga team that hasn't scored versus the one that hasn't conceded.

Barcelona might have to fight a little harder than that suggests. Levante have traditionally made trouble for the Big Two at the Ciutat de Valencia, going W1-D3-L3 since coming into La Liga in 2010. And only one of those defeats has been by more than the odd goal.

Last season, this fixture finished 1-1. That game is among Barcelona's most recent 11 away from home, from which they are W5-D3-L3, but with just a single victory by a margin of two goals or more.

It's early in the season and not yet clear that Levante will find the same spirit under Jose Luis Mendilibar that they have under previous managers, so the stake is small.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Levante +2.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.13n/a

Getafe v Valencia
Monday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Getafe 3.9n/a Valencia 2.0811/10 draw 3.613/5

Early days, but Valencia are second in La Liga having scored more goals (seven) than anyone else.

Sevilla - a strong home team - could only hold Los Che to a draw, even though the visitors spent half an hour with just 10 men. New boss Nuno Santo has subsequently guided them to dominant home wins over Malaga and Espanyol.

Meanwhile, Getafe won their first home game of the season 1-0 over Almeria, but have lost road games either side of that.

Valencia won only three away matches last season, but this was one of them. They also won it two seasons ago. New Spain international Paco Alcacer is full of confidence upfront and has something to prove against the club for whom he barely scored a couple of seasons ago.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Valencia @ 2.0811/10

2014/15 La Liga P/L

Staked: 11.5pts
Returned: 6.21pts

P/L: -5.29pts

2013/14 P/L: +18.77pts (11.55% ROI)