Premier League: Six reasons why Chelsea are a title lay

Relying on Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa isn't without its risks

Four wins from four have left Chelsea odds-on for the Premier League title; Michael Lintorn presents the case for the lay.

They always start well
Chelsea beginning a Premier League campaign promisingly shouldn't be headline news, and it certainly shouldn't push them in from 4.4 earlier this summer to 1.845/6 with 89% of the season remaining. In the Roman Abramovich era, they failed to win titles in 2003/04, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 despite boasting ten points or more at this stage.

Early birds rarely get the Premier League worm
Sticking with the "don't overanalyse a tasty start" premise, the team that topped the table at the close of matchday four wound up guzzling champagne and touring the local landmarks in an open-top bus the following May just once in the previous seven seasons. That statistic gains even more relevance when you consider that Chelsea were the pacesetters in five of those.

There has only been one true test
One reason why Chelsea make a habit of assuming a September lead and surrendering it is a glitch in the fixture computer that shuffles some of their least complicated encounters to the start of the list. Everton are the sole 2013/14 top-half side that they have played, and they had the good fortune of catching them amidst a winless opening. Two of their other three foes were promoted clubs.

They are letting in a lorra lorra goals
Chelsea have kept only one clean sheet in four Premier League games, and that owed more to Dave Nugent's Dave Nugent-ness than any defensive mastery. In total, they have leaked six times - that's more than Hull and Leicester and twice as many as maligned Man United. Three Premier League titles in history were won by backlines conceding a goal-a-match or more (one in the past 14 years).

The Fabregas-Costa dependence
The Blues' initial success this term owes everything to signing the Spain internationals compared to John Lennon and Paul McCartney by an effusive Garth Crooks. Diego Costa has scored a record seven goals in his first four Premier League outings, while Cesc Fabregas has six assists already. The worry with appearing so reliant on them is that Costa seems to average a hamstring scare a week and Fabregas' three years in Barcelona had a recurrent theme of sparkling starts and then burnout.

The looming Man City threat
The greatest ace up Chelsea's sleeve is that they have hastily assembled five-point advantages over Man City and Tottenham, six-point leads over Arsenal and Liverpool and seven points of space over Man United and Everton. However, Man City's seven-point start is equal to what they earned from easier fixtures last season. This time, they have exclusively faced 2013/14 top-half teams, achieving admirable results against all bar one. In that context, it is bewildering that they are 4.67/2 shots.