Bayern Munich v Manchester City: English champions to raid Allianz Arena again

Pep Guardiola's Bayern have been weakened by injuries

Bayern Munich are up against Manchester City in the Champions League group stage for the second season running, and our Bundesliga columnist Kevin Hatchard doesn't think the Germans should be odds-on favourites.

Bayern Munich vs Manchester City
Wednesday September 17th, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Bayern Munich

Given the incredible success of his predecessor Jupp Heynckes, Pep Guardiola knows his spell as Bayern Munich coach will ultimately be judged on how his team fares in the Champions League.

Despite wrapping up the Bundesliga title earlier than any other side in history, and adding the German Cup and Club World Cup to a bulging trophy cabinet, the humiliating semi-final defeat to Real Madrid in Europe's premier competition put a dark cloud over the campaign. The 5-0 aggregate defeat (which included a 4-0 thrashing at home) exposed Bayern's biggest weakness - a failure to defend adequately against counter-attacks.

Guardiola has tried to remedy this with a change of formation to 3-4-3, and the addition of Xabi Alonso to the midfield, which in theory should give Bayern greater stability in the middle of the park. If Saturday's 2-0 win over Stuttgart is anything to go by, Alonso is settling in well. He had 150 touches, set up the opener for Mario Gotze and hit the post. He is already emerging as an on-field leader, which is exactly what Guardiola wanted.

However, Bayern's overall start to the season has been far from flawless. They were listless and disorganised in a 2-0 Supercup defeat at Borussia Dortmund and, although they have collected seven points from their first three Bundesliga games, they haven't yet put together a convincing 90-minute display.

At the start of last season there was a feeling that Bayern's players were taking a while to understand what Guardiola wanted from them, and it feels like a case of dj vu this term.

Although Bayern have the strongest squad in Germany, injury problems haven't helped. Javi Martinez' long-term injury is a big blow, as he would've been a key figure in the new formation. Bastian Schweinsteiger is still recovering from a persistent knee injury, right-back Rafinha has an ankle problem, Thiago Alcantara is only just returning to training, and Arjen Robben's knee injury has flared up yet again. To make matters worse, Holger Badstuber (who Guardiola has described as one of the best centre-backs he's ever worked with) is out for three months with a torn thigh muscle. Franck Ribery marked his return to action with a goal against Stuttgart, but he's a doubt as well.

Manchester City

Just like Bayern, the Premier League champions are brimming with quality but are struggling to hit top gear. For every powerhouse performance (the 3-1 win over Liverpool springs to mind), there has been an ineffective display to go with it (Stoke, anyone?), so there is a sense that Manuel Pellegrini's men aren't quite at their best. Confidence will however have been boosted by Saturday's fightback at Arsenal, which saw City snatch a 2-2 draw and threaten to win the game.

Although City aren't putting together consistent team displays, some of their players have really caught the eye. Playmaker David Silva has looked sensational at times this season, while Argentina striker Sergio Aguero has scored four goals in five games for club and country.

It's been a slow and sometimes painful evolution for City in the Champions League, but under Pellegrini last term they looked more convincing than they ever have at this level. They won all three of their group stage away games, including an extraordinary 3-2 victory at the Allianz Arena, where they fought back magnificently after Bayern had built an early 2-0 lead. Another trip to Munich shouldn't therefore hold any fear for City's players, even though the coach won't be able to advise them from the sidelines, as he is suspended.

City will be without rock-hard right-back Pablo Zabaleta because of suspension, but the vastly-experienced Bacary Sagna should prove an excellent replacement. Midfield overlord Yaya Toure will return after he sat out the Arsenal game, and in the absence of Fernando, he'll be partnered by Fernandinho (the master of the tactical foul). Forward Stevan Jovetic is still injured.

Match Odds

Bayern are 1.684/6 to win, and I think that's too short. Bayern have won just one of their last four Champions League games at the Allianz Arena, and that run includes defeat to City and a draw with Arsenal. I don't think they have quite the same aura of invincibility as they did midway through last season, and City have the players to push them pretty hard.

You could lay Bayern outright, or if you want a touch more insurance you could back City +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.824/5. City were much improved on their travels in this competition last term, and this is a game that Bayern could do without this early in the season.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.664/6, and I can see why. Both of the encounters between these two sides last season were high-scoring affairs, and all bar one of City's Champions League games last term featured three goals or more.

To Score

Bayern's Robert Lewandowski is the market leader at 1.768/11, but it's worth noting he's found the net just once so far this season. The returning Ribery is 2.3211/8, while German World Cup hero Thomas Muller is 2.021/1.

Sergio Aguero scored six Champions League group stage goals last term, is in good form, and is a healthy 2.6613/8 to find the net at any time.

Recommended Bet
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.684/6