Bundesliga Betting: Table-toppers Bayern to rack up another clean sheet

Bayern's Arjen Robben was on fine form against Paderborn

Bayern Munich went top of the Bundesliga table in midweek, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to stay there this weekend.

FC Cologne v Bayern Munich
Saturday September 27, 14:30

Two significant events happened to these sides in midweek. On Wednesday, FC Cologne finally conceded a goal, and therefore suffered their first defeat as they went down 1-0 at Hannover. A day earlier, Bayern Munich went top of the table with a 4-0 win over previous leaders Paderborn.

While the performance against Paderborn wasn't perfect (the visitors squandered several good chances), Bayern had their attacking swagger back. Arjen Robben looked as if he was getting towards full fitness, Mario Gotze boosted his confidence with a welcome brace, and Robert Lewandowski finally scored a competitive goal for Bayern at the Allianz Arena.

Equally heartening for Bayern fans is the fact the team has now kept four consecutive clean sheets. Defensive weakness was a real issue for Pep Guardiola's men in the second half of last season, but the acquisition of the outstanding Xabi Alonso is proving to be a masterstroke. Not only is he screening the back four well, but he's keeping the ball away from the opposition with accurate passing. Toni who?

I raved about Cologne's defending in my midweek column, but the offensive unit is still letting the Billy Goats down. Peter Stoger's men have failed to score in four of their five league games, and they are unlikely to get too many chances against Bayern at the Rhein Energie Stadion this weekend.

I know we were burned recently when we backed Bayern to win to nil at Hamburg (they drew 0-0), but I think Bayern will win this, and I can't see Cologne's struggling attack making an impact. The win to nil looks too big at 2.35/4.

Recommended Bet

Back Bayern to win to nil at 2.35/4 (best bet)

Mainz v Hoffenheim
Friday September 26, 19:30
Live on ESPN

I thought Mainz would really struggle under new coach Kasper Hjulmand, but after a really shaky start that saw them tumble out of the German Cup and the Europa League, the Nullfunfers have got their act together. They rode their luck a bit in last weekend's win over Borussia Dortmund, but they deserve credit for putting together a five-match unbeaten run. They were left frustrated on Tuesday, as they blew a 2-0 lead in Frankfurt, drawing 2-2 with Eintracht.

Shinji Okazaki has had to carry the offensive burden since the departures of Nicolai Muller and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, but the hard-working Japanese international has risen to the occasion, with five goals in five Bundesliga games. At 2.767/4 in the To Score market, he has to be worth backing, as he should be much closer to evens.

Hoffenheim clung onto their unbeaten start to the season by the narrowest of margins in midweek, as Jannik Vestergaard's 93rd-minute equaliser salvaged a 3-3 draw with Freiburg. Hoffe have improved defensively this season, but the old bad habits returned against the men from the Black Forest, and coach Markus Gisdol will be relieved his side fought back to rescue a point. I suspect this defensive shabbiness will prove to be a blip rather than a decline.

I very rarely tip the draw, but I'll make an exception this time. Both teams are unbeaten, and have drawn three of their five games so far, and there's so little to choose between them that 3.65n/a seems like a price that we shouldn't ignore.

Recommended Bets

Back Shinji Okazaki to score at 2.767/4

Back the draw at 3.65n/a

Hamburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday September 26, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Five games, two points and no goals. That's the sorry tale of Hamburg's awful start to the season, and why they are bottom of the standings. The league's perennial laughing stock have already sacked a coach, and although Mirko Slomka's replacement Joe Zinnbauer has tightened up the defence (0-0 draw v Bayern, 1-0 defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach), that elusive goal hasn't arrived. HSV managed just two goal attempts in the second half of the defeat at Gladbach, and Opta tell us no Bundesliga team has failed to score in their first five games since Bochum in 1979.

The same certainly can't be said for Thomas Schaaf's Eintracht Frankfurt, who are scoring plenty of goals. Three of their five matches have ended 2-2, and they've only failed to score once this term. Strikers Haris Seferovic and Alex Meier have bagged a couple of goals apiece, with Meier scoring in each of the last two games. It's worth noting that in their two away games so far, the Eagles have managed draws at Wolfsburg and Schalke, who both finished in the top five last season.

Frankfurt will be without excellent young keeper Kevin Trapp until mid-December because of an ankle injury, but they have signed the vastly experienced Timo Hildebrand as a replacement, so there shouldn't be too much of an impact. Schaaf now has to find a way of satisfying his attacking tendencies without abandoning the defensive side of the game, but I think he'll be delighted with a record of just one defeat in five games.

I can see no justification for Hamburg being 2.226/5 favourites to win this match. They haven't won a home game since the first week of April, and stretching back into last season they are winless in ten Bundesliga matches. While I do think they have signed some good players, those signings haven't adapted yet, and Eintracht Frankfurt will be dangerous opposition.

Recommended Bet

Lay Hamburg at 2.226/5

Kevin will be commentating on Schalke v Borussia Dortmund and Hamburg v Eintracht Frankfurt this weekend for TuneIn radio with talkSPORT. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinhatchard

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 19

Points Returned: 15.39

P/L: -3.61 points