The Big Match Tactical View: West Ham v Liverpool

Sam Allardyce wants more goals from his side this season

Saturday's late kick-off sees Liverpool visiting West Ham United. Michael Cox looks at the tactical angle, while Alan Thompson provides his expert betting knowledge...

West Ham v Liverpool
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: West Ham 4.84/1, Liverpool 1.845/6, The Draw 4.03/1.

At the start of the season, the odds suggested Liverpool would fall out of the top four this season, despite the fact they only narrowly missed out on the title last year.

Why? Because, in part, of the increased strain upon the squad because of the club's Champions League participation. This, therefore, feels like a big test for Liverpool - the first opportunity to show that those extra matches won't prove problematic.

In truth, this is a nice, gentle start in this respect - not because West Ham are a poor side, but because the Hammers' played on Monday evening away at Hull, and therefore have only enjoyed one extra day of rest, so Liverpool can't really use the Champions League as a valid excuse.

Nevertheless, Brendan Rodgers needs a good performance from his players, after a shock home defeat by Aston Villa and a disappointing display, and a narrow win, against Ludogorets on Tuesday evening.

It remains to be seen whether Daniel Sturridge will be fit to return from injury, and it's worth waiting to see the starting line-ups before backing Liverpool, as his availability has a huge impact upon Liverpool's attacking quality, and also their system.

If Sturridge is fit, Rodgers will probably play the diamond, with Sturridge and Mario Balotelli ahead of Raheem Sterling. If not, it could be more of a 4-3-3, with Lazar Markovic brought into the side. 

There's also a major question mark about Sam Allardyce's formation. While Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia looked good at Hull, Allardyce may switch back to a one-man strikeforce, beefing up his midfield against a side that will put plenty of bodies in the centre of the pitch.

This could be a decent opportunity for Alex Song to make his full debut, though it remains to be seen precisely what role he plays - although established as a holding midfielder, he could be given a freer role to show his attacking qualities.

Stewart Downing was in fine form against Hull, grabbing two assists, and he'll be keen to make an impact against his former club. He'll be up against Javier Manquillo, which should be one of the game's most interesting individual battles.

Also down that flank will be West Ham's new left-back Aaron Cresswell, who hasn't looked particularly convincing in the Premier League so far. Rodgers might consider using an attack-minded right-winger against him - Sterling, for example, could get plenty of joy with his direct dribbling. If Liverpool go 4-3-3, with a speedy right-winger, I'll back Cresswell to be shown a card at around 4.47/2.

I'm expecting a few goals in this game. There have been Over 2.5 Goals in Liverpool's last nine away matches and in eight of the nine previous meetings between these sides. Meanwhile, Allardyce has introduced more attacking style, but the defensive section of the side looks far from solid and they're yet to keep a clean sheet this season. I'll back both teams to score, at 1.75/7.

This is an interesting game from a tactical perspective. We know the sides have very different playing styles, with West Ham much more direct than Liverpool. But at such an early stage of the campaign, it's difficult to be certain about the line-ups or formations, and therefore individual decisions from the two coaches could prove crucial.

This is exactly the sort of game where waiting for the line-ups to be unveiled is crucial, especially if considering the game from a strategic point of view.

Recommended Bets

Back Cresswell to be shown a card at 4.47/2
Back both teams to score at 1.75/7

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

On the road last season games involving Liverpool averaged 4.21 goals per game (3.32 was next best) and only three games ended with two or fewer goals being scored, already both away games this season have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

The Hammers struggled at home last season against the sides that finished above them in the league losing nine of the 12 fixtures. They also conceded two or more goals in eight of their 19 home games, already this season Southampton have put three past them at the Boleyn Ground, the Irons are yet to keep a clean sheet home or away in five starts (including Carling Cup).

While I think Liverpool will have to much for the Hammers, I’m not a fan of backing them at 1.85. The last five renewals of this contest have seen Over 2.5 Goals and both teams have scored in four of those five encounters. I would rather take my chances in the 'overs' markets backing Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.0 and placing a keep bet on Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.3 should it reach that level in-play.