The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Everton

Steven Gerrard has struggled in recent matches

The weekend's opening Premier League fixture is the Merseyside derby. Traditionally a game with plenty of cards, the stats point to plenty of goals. Here are the verdicts of BB's deadly duo, Michael Cox and Alan Thompson, on the weekend curtain raiser...

Liverpool v Everton
Saturday 12:45, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Liverpool 1.9210/11, Everton 4.47/2, The Draw 3.9n/a.

Last season's two Merseyside derbies produced ten goals - and this meeting at Anfield should be another thriller.

Both teams have displayed the same weakness so far this season - neither can defend to save their lives - and when combined with plenty of attacking potential, there will surely be goals at both ends.

The statistics tell the story - Everton's games have averaged 4.8 goals so far this season, and they've scored at least two goals in their last seven Premier League matches. An eighth on the bounce would be a new club record in the Premier League.

They've conceded more goals than any other Premier League side, however, with goalkeeper Tim Howard enduring a particularly miserable start to the campaign. Liverpool traditionally have plenty of shots, and Howard's form must improve if Everton are to stand a chance in this game.

With defensive problems a real concern in the first few weeks, both managers have selection and formation dilemmas. Brendan Rodgers found his diamond outplayed at West Ham last weekend, and switched to a 3-5-2 shape midway through the first half. He's likely to return to a four-man defence, but it remains to be seen whether he chooses a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2 diamond - Raheem Sterling and Mario Balotelli could operate either side of Daniel Sturridge, or in a more narrow format.

The diamond would risk allowing Everton's full-backs forward, but I think Rodgers will be brave and go with that shape, which increasingly seems to be his first-choice. Sterling could do significant damage against Gareth Barry and James McCarthy, while the pace of the front two will unsettle Sylvain Distin and Phil Jagielka.

Rodgers' main selection dilemma will be on the left of the diamond - Adam Lallana could start alongside Jordan Henderson and Steven Gerrard, although Joe Allen might be a safer bet.

Roberto Martinez has used a 4-2-3-1 system so far this season, but there's a suspicion he might move to more of a 4-3-3 - perhaps using a false nine as he has against Arsenal a couple of times in 2014.

The idea would be simple - it would allow Everton to play with three deep midfielders to help battle against the pace and mobility of Liverpool's central players, perhaps with Muhamed Besic joining Barry and McCarthy.

More importantly, though, it would allow Steven Naismith to mark Steven Gerrard before spinning in behind, the role played expertly by Gabriel Agbonlahor and Stewart Downing over the past couple of weekends. Naismith is an excellent player in a tactical sense, and can expose Gerrard's defensive weakness on the counter-attack. I'll back Gerrard to be shown a card, at 4.216/5.

That would allow Romelu Lukaku and Kevin Mirallas (or Aiden McGeady) to play high up and push Liverpool's two Spanish full-backs, Alberto Moreno and Javier Manquillo, back into their own half. Both are talented technical players, but look unconvincing defensively at this stage. Furthermore, it would deny Liverpool width, which is desperately needed from full-back when playing a midfield diamond.

This will probably be an open game, but I believe Martinez will attempt to play relatively cautiously. A tactical game, with a few breakaway chances, will probably favour his side - whereas a fast and furious end-to-end thriller will suit Liverpool, who have the more composed finishers in their ranks. Whether Everton will be able to dictate the tempo remains to be seen - Liverpool started big matches excellently last season, although that's been less obvious in 2014/15.

Either way, backing goals is surely the way to go. There are various markets you could venture into here, but I'm going to stick with a simple 'both teams to score' bet at 1.625/8 - I simply don't trust either of these teams to keep a clean sheet.

Recommended Bets
Back Gerrard to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Both teams to sore at 1.625/8

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

It has been the red side of Liverpool that has enjoyed success in this fixture for quite some time - Everton have failed to beat Liverpool (home or away) in their last eight meetings (7 league, 1 FA Cup), and their last win at Anfield was September 27, 1999, (exactly 15 years to the day!).

The Toffees so far this season top the league on average goals per game, their opening five fixtures have produced 24, an average of 4.8, with only one of their five producing less than 3.5 goals. Their neighbours across Stanley Park aren’t that far behind in the goal fest league either, with 15 in their opening five starts (an average of three goals per game). If you then add to the mix their meetings last year produced 10 goals (3-3 at Goodison and 4-0 at Anfield) it’s probably no surprise to find over 2.5 goals priced as short as it is (1.67).

However, it should be pointed out that 18 of 24 goals from the Everton games have come at Goodison and similarly with Liverpool, the vast majority (11) of the 15 goals, have come away from Anfield. I like to take on over 2.5 goals when it is as short as this and their isn't an overwhelming favourite in the match odds. While Liverpool are rightly favourites to win the game they are hardly “home banker” material, in fact I don’t think there is that much between them, for that reason I will be a layer of over 2.5 goals @ 1.68