Does Italian soccer’s decline present an opportunity to make a profit in the UCL?
By Charlie Rowing Sep 16, 2014
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With Italian football apparently in decline and Italian teams’ performances in the Champions league at an all-time low, is there value to be made? This article explains how Italian soccer’s decline presents an opportunity to make a profit in the UCL.
The recent glory years
Aside from a period in the 90’s when it was well regarded that Serie A was “the best league in the world” – Italian teams have achieved some success. Perhaps the height was in the 2002/03 season when Juventus and AC Milan played each other in the Champions League final.
Prior to the start of the competition Pinnacle Sports opening lines on Juventus and AC Milan to win the tournament were set at: 13.000 and 26.000 respectively.
Aside from this, AC Milan also reached the final in 2005 and 2007. Losing on penalties to Liverpool in 2005 after a dramatic comeback, before beating them in the 2007 final.
The last recent success for Italian teams came in 2010 when priced at 11.500 to win prior to the start of the tournament; Jose Mourinho’s Inter Milan lifted the trophy, completing a treble-winning season.
The decline
The recent dip in domestic Italian soccer has coincided with their fall from grace in European competition.
Italian teams’ odds of winning the competition have slowly declined in recent years. The best example of this is over a four-year period of when Inter Milan last competed in the Champions League.
When Jose Mourinho arrived in 2008 they were given odds of 8.190 to win the competition, however they didn’t do as well as expected – going out in the Quarter-finals.
The following year their odds reflected this as they drifted to 11.500, but went on to win the competition. Prior to the start of the 2010/11 season Mourinho left Inter and rather than see their odds increased as the current holders they dropped again to 14.000 – highlighting the influence the bookmakers believed Mourinho has on a squad’s chances of winning.
The bookmakers were vindicated as Inter were eliminated that year in the Quarter-finals, and their odds for the 11/12 season fell to 31.830.
The decline continues for the 2014-115 season with Juventus the best priced Italian team to win at 31.000* – an implied probability of just 3.23%.
This shows that bookmakers clearly aren’t convinced that the Bianconeri can make a real impact on this year’s competition, or their fellow Italian side Roma, who Pinnacle Sports do not list on the outrights.
Given that no Italian team since Inter Milan’s victory in 2010 has made it beyond the Quarter-finals suggests that bookmakers have been correct in widening their odds to win.
A sign Italian football is in decline
Italian teams’ poor performances in Europe have been reflected in the UEFA coefficients.
They have been overtaken by both Germany – which resulted in the Bundesliga gaining an extra Champions League space at the expense of Serie A – and Portugal.
The state of Italian soccer is highlighted by the club coefficient, which has only AC Milan -14th – inside the top 20.
Despite the decline in recent times bettors must question whether or not this is the right time to make a profit on Italian teams given their rank outsider position, and consider if the bookmakers are undervaluing them, especially on the handicap market?
Value on the Champions League Handicap
Despite recently performing poorly in the Champions League, giving little hope to bettors backing an Italian team to win the tournament, there is still plenty of value betting either for or against Italian teams on the spread.
If the cover % for a team is 50% it showcases the bookmakers had an excellent gauge of their strength. However, higher than 50% and they have been undervalued, while a lower cover % highlights and overvaluation – both instances create an opportunity to make a profit for bettors who judge a teams relative strength better than the bookmaker.
The table below showcases all Italian teams’ handicap performance in the Champions League since 2004.
Team (2004-05)
Games
Cover %
AC Milan
12
67%
Inter Milan
12
67%
Juventus
10
50%
Roma
6
0%
Team (2005-06)
Games
Cover %
AC Milan
12
58%
Juventus
10
40%
Udinese
6
33%
Inter Milan
10
30%
Team (2006-07)
Games
Cover %
Roma
10
50%
AC Milan
13
46%
Inter Milan
8
38%
Team (2007-08)
Games
Cover %
Inter Milan
8
63%
AC Milan
8
50%
Roma
10
40%
Lazio
6
33%
Team (2008-09)
Games
Cover %
Roma
8
75%
Juventus
8
50%
Fiorentina
6
33%
Inter Milan
8
13%
Team (2009-10)
Games
Cover %
Fiorentina
8
75%
Inter Milan
13
69%
Juventus
6
33%
AC Milan
8
25%
Team (2010-11)
Games
Cover %
AC Milan
8
63%
Inter Milan
10
40%
Roma
8
25%
Team (2011-12)
Games
Cover %
Napoli
8
88%
Inter Milan
8
63%
AC Milan
10
50%
Team (2012-13)
Games
Cover %
Juventus
10
50%
AC Milan
8
38%
Team (2013-14)
Games
Cover %
Napoli
6
50%
AC Milan
8
38%
Juventus
6
0%
Click here to see the latest Champions League odds.
*Odds subject to change
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