A fit Stephan El Shaarawy is a big AC Milan difference-maker
Michael Lintorn finds in-play form lines for Nottingham Forest v Derby, Hannover v Hamburg and Parma v AC Milan...
Nottingham Forest v Derby
Sunday, 13:15
Live on Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Nottingham Forest 2.427/5, Derby 3.259/4, The Draw 3.55/2
Though they have both been stuck in the Championship for far too long, this is the first time in ages that Brian Clough Way rivals Nottingham Forest and Derby collide with both looking pretty healthy. Nottingham Forest top the division under club legend Stuart Pearce, even after everyone else played an extra game, and Derby are just five points behind them, having reached last term's play-off final.
At first glance, there aren't many recurring features of this grudge fixture, besides the Rams winning four in six. Under 2.5 goals is prevalent too - four in five meetings - and that despite the deadlock-breaker coming between minutes 7-55 in the latest three to fly south. So either backing overs now at 1.875/6 with a view to a Cash Out or waiting for an early opener to invest in unders are solid tactics.
Hannover v Hamburg
Sunday, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Match Odds: Hannover 2.26/5, Hamburg 3.55n/a, The Draw 3.711/4
After a miserable three years during which they have twice been fortunate to avoid relegation, this should be Hamburg's comeback campaign owing to savvy signings such as Valon Behrami, Lewis Holtby and Julian Green. However, their first impression has been unflattering, following a 0-0 draw at Koln with a 0-3 home defeat to the other promoted club Paderborn.
Hamburg's biggest problem is assuming a lead: they haven't done so in their previous seven standard Bundesliga matches (in other words, excluding play-offs), yet were victorious on three of the past four occasions that they did work their way in front. The advice therefore isn't to back the six-time champions pre-match at 3.55n/a, but to steam in if they do go ahead during the contest.
Parma v AC Milan
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Match Odds: Parma 3.02/1, AC Milan 2.568/5, The Draw 3.55/2
Parma's success last season was built off a splendid summer, so it is a worry that the opposite has been true this time. They lost their Europa League place due to not being granted a UEFA licence, sold their conductor Marco Parolo to Lazio, star man Antonio Cassano is alleged to be going through one of his notorious "Cassanate" episodes and they lost their Serie A opener at newcomers Cesena.
A highlight of their resurgent 2013/14 was a double over AC Milan - 3-2 at home and 4-2 away - and those results mean that both teams have scored in five of their last six clashes. In each, the second side took at least 56 minutes to net (the average time was 71 minutes), so it may pay to hold out until beyond the hour mark to hopefully back at above evens rather than punt now at odds of 1.768/11.
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