Against All Odds: German duo to go goal crazy

Anthony Modeste has scored twice in 166 minutes this term

Germany is the country of choice for Paul Robinson today as he has identified Hoffenheim v Freiburg as a potential goal-fest.

Hoffenheim v Freiburg
Tuesday September 23, 19:00 BST

Hoffenheim have made a blistering start to their season as last year's ninth placed finishers are third in the Bundesliga standings thanks to two wins and two draws from their opening four games. Victories over Augsburg and Stuttgart were added to by draws with Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg.

While all four of those matches finished with exactly two goals, the stats would suggest that there will be an upturn in goals sooner rather than later. In the DFB Pokal, Markus Gisdol's side racked up nine at Paloma and last season, their matches averaged 4.18 goals each time - the highest in the entire division - with 22 of their 34 going over 3.5.

Freiburg are 14th in the table with two points and that is exactly where they finished last year. They are yet to win, but they managed to pick up draws at home to Borussia Mnchengladbach and Hertha BSC.

Christian Streich's men have scored three and conceded six in their four matches and that means that their games are averaging 2.25 goals per 90 minutes. Again, like their opponents though, their stats from last season make much more promising reading as their average was 3.06, with well over a third of their fixtures finishing with at least four goals being scored.

The goals are likely to flow between this pair, just like they did on this ground in August 2013 when they shared the spoils in a six goal thriller. That's why, with under 3.5 trading at around the 1.68/13 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Hoffenheim v Freiburg @ 1.68/13

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 253 pts
Returned: 263.32 pts
P/L: + 10.32 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)