Which young prospects can have a big impact in the future of ATP Tennis?

Which young prospects can have a big impact in the future of ATP Tennis?

By Dan Weston Sep 19, 2014

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With an apparent ‘changing of the guard’ in men’s tennis, having a strong knowledge of the young players coming through the ranks is vital. This article assesses the claims of some of the hot prospects on the ATP Tour, and identifies statistics which bettors should be aware of when judging players’ performances on the Challenger Tour.  

The 2014 US Open final between Marin Cilic (16) and Kei Nishikori (11) saw for the first time this millennium a final competed for where both finalists were ranked outside the top ten.

Prior to the US Open, speculation had circulated that the difference between top players and those who are at a lower level was decreasing, and we wrote an article on this subject earlier in the year.

Now with Cilic and Nishikori eliminating elite level players on their way to the final, as well as the top two – Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal – suffering defeats priced under 1.25 against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Robredo, Nishikori, Dustin Brown and Nick Krygios since June, the evidence is becoming overwhelming.

Furthermore, there are a number of strong young prospects making their way into the ATP Tour, and this will ensure that the men’s division will continue to be competitive for the foreseeable future.

At the time of writing, there are six players aged 21 or younger in the top 150 in the world, with five ranked inside the top 80.  Dominic Thiem is the highest ranked (31), having just turned 21.  Nick Kyrgios (51), at just 19, is close behind after producing a number of strong performances in Grand Slams – the best coming in his 3-1 win over Nadal at Wimbledon. Bernard Tomic, who despite being on the main tour for a few years is still 21, Jack Sock and Jiri Vesely are close behind the promising Australian in the rankings, while Alexander Zverev, is ranked at 150 at 18 years-of-age, and reached the semi-finals on the clay of Hamburg, in his home country, back in July.

Young talent ranked this high hasn’t always been the case, so it’s interesting to analyse the statistics behind these players with a view to comparing their careers so far.

The following table illustrates the records for the six players aged under 21 in the top 150 for 2014, and also shows each player’s statistics on the Challenger Tour in 2013:

2014 ATP performance

Player

Age

Rank

Highest Rank

W-L

Service Hold %

Opponent Break %

Combined %

Thiem

21

36

36

20-16

77.7

23.7

101.4

Krygios

19

51

51

8-6

83.9

14.1

98.0

Tomic

21

65

27

14-11

85.4

15.4

100.8

Sock

21

68

55

20-16

85.4

18.4

103.8

Vesely

21

78

66

13-15

78.6

19.4

98.0

Zverev

17

150

150

4-5

64.7

24.1

88.8

 

2014 Challenger performance

Player

W-L

Service Hold %

Opponent Break %

Combined %

Thiem

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Krygios

15-2

89.2

23.2

112.4

Tomic

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sock

4-3

78.7

26.5

105.2

Vesely

14-3

83.7

35.8

119.5

Zverev

9-7

75.7

25.5

101.2

 

2013 Challenger performance

Player

W-L

Service Hold %

Opponent Break %

Combined %

Thiem

15-7

76.9

31.6

108.5

Krygios

6-3

75

24.5

99.5

Tomic

2-1

88.1

14.6

102.7

Sock

11-9

83.2

21.6

104.8

Vesely

31-8

79.3

33.4

112.7

Zverev

0-1

25

33.3

58.3

What the data suggests

Interestingly the oldest five players are generally closely grouped; with 2014 ATP combined hold/break percentages between 98.0% and 103.8%. On that basis, the players should be able to move up the rankings in a similar manner, although interestingly it’s Jack Sock – probably the least heralded of these players as a hot prospect – with the combined best hold/break percentage. The American has been able to achieve what his arguably more talented countryman, Ryan Harrison, has failed to do – to make a seamless transition from the Challenger Tour to the ATP.

Dominic Thiem, second on the list for combined hold/break percentages, has also achieved that – based on his 2013 Challenger stats, he’d expect to have an ATP combined percentage of around 96-97%, but his 2014 figures show a clear improvement on that.

With a quarter-final at Wimbledon and a 3rd round finish at the US Open recently, Nick Kyrgios has shown that he can compete with the best at just 19 and his Challenger stats in 2014 are highly impressive, losing just two of seventeen matches on the lower level tour. These should equate to a hold/break percentage of around 100%, and at 19 this marks him out as arguably the player with the highest potential out of this group.

Jiri Vesely has similar Challenger stats to Kyrgios. In fact, from a slightly worse win-loss record, the Czech has recorded better hold/break stats from the same number of matches. However, Vesely has found the step harder than Thiem, Sock or Kyrgios, and has less than 50% win ratio in 2014 ATP matches. This is largely due to an inability to convert winning positions; he has lost a break lead 47.73% of the time in the last 12 months. This is 19.18% worse than the ATP top 100 average, and until he can rectify this problem, he will struggle to improve his ranking. Nevertheless, should he be able to do so, he appears to be a player with immense potential.

That tag was given to Bernard Tomic from a young age. Signed by sports management giants IMG to a six-figure deal when just 13, he was touted as a player who could be a future world number one. Before he commenced his ITF Tour career, he claimed that he would “become the number 1 tennis player in the world, win all the Grand Slams and become Australia’s youngest Davis Cup player. He also claimed he would achieve these goals by attaining the serve of Goran Ivanievi, the mind of Pete Sampras, the groundstrokes of Roger Federer and the heart of Lleyton Hewitt.”

It is fair to say that he has spectacularly failed to achieve this level so far. A career high ranking of 27 was obtained over two years ago, and the Australian has not kicked on at all, with a number of personal issues hindering his progress. Interestingly, his last main year on the Challenger Tour, in 2011, illustrates that whilst his serve is largely impressive, his return statistics are less so and unless he can improve those, will struggle to break into the top 20.

The final player in the group is Alexander Zverev. He shocked the tennis world with a run to the semi-finals of the Hamburg 500 in July, which followed his maiden Challenger Tour title in Braunschweig, where he defeated four players as a heavy underdog. As a result of his form he was hyped by many tennis fans and bettors as the next big thing – however he has failed to build on the momentum, with seven defeats in 11 matches.

At 17, Zverev has the worst stats by some distance, but plenty of time to improve them. Having said that, it would be asking a great deal for him to start succeeding on the ATP Tour in the near future based on his 2014 Challenger Tour stats, and bettors would be well advised to wait for his Challenger hold/break percentage to combine 110% prior to backing him at ATP level.

With young players less ‘exposed’ in the betting markets analysis of these players and their potential is a very useful asset to tennis bettors. Nevertheless, this can work both ways, with young players being over-rated and under-rated on occasion. The key for bettors is identifying those opportunities where young players of high potential are under-rated, giving them a great opportunity to make a profit.

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