Football Bet of the Day: Railwaymen to hit the buffers again

Steve Davis has received the dreaded vote of confidence

After a winning start to the week, Kevin Hatchard looks for a more profit with a rare England-based selection.

Crewe Alexandra v Notts County
Tuesday September 30, 19:45

We trusted in Rubin Kazan's newly-found attacking style (a footballing glasnost, if you will), and they delivered. Torpedo played their part in our Both Teams To Score wager after just 15 minutes, and although Rubin's two goals came in the final quarter of the match, it was a case of better late than never.

Every globetrotter needs to pop home now and again, and we're spending today in good old Blighty, with a League One clash between Crewe Alexandra and Notts County.

This is a game that evokes plenty of memories from my student days at Nottingham Trent. I based my final university documentary around a wide-ranging interview with Crewe chairman John Bowler, and most nightclubs in Nottingham had Hatchard throwing shapes in them at some stage, with one or two bottles of Irn-Bru WKD in hand.

Crewe fans could be forgiven for turning to the alcopops this season, as it's been a dreadful campaign. The Railwaymen are still stuck in the station, having collected a measly four points from their opening nine games. They have the worst defensive record in the entire Football League, with 24 goals conceded, and in their last two outings they've been battered 6-1 at MK Dons and shredded 3-0 at home by lowly Colchester.

Boss Steve Davis has been given a vote of confidence by Bowler (he's still chairman, 14 years after I interviewed him) and the board, and Crewe aren't a club that pulls the trigger without good reason. However, the stark truth appears to be that many of their players aren't up to performing at this level, and confidence has been shot to pieces.

Notts County are making steady progress under Shaun Derry, and he is making them tough to beat. The Magpies have only lost one of their last eight matches in all competitions, and that was a 2-1 defeat against leaders Bristol City that came courtesy of a 90th-minute winner. Derry has had to mix and match because of injury problems and a tight budget, but he has drilled the defence superbly, and veteran keeper Roy Carroll has been on wonderful form.

County have kept four clean sheets in their last eight games, and they have conceded more than one goal just twice this season. If we go on the basis that they are likely to either keep a clean sheet or concede just the one goal, the question then becomes can they score at the other end?

Crewe have conceded three goals or more in four of their six home games, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet on home turf. Against a Magpies side that is well organised and has shown itself capable of giving the division's top sides a game, I think Crewe will struggle, and I'm happy to recommend the away win at a chunky 2.6213/8.

Recommended Bet
Back Notts County to win at 2.6213/8

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 29

Points Returned: 29.06

P/L: +0.06 points