среда, 24 сентября 2014 г.

ATP Malaysian Open Betting: Benneteau to finally realise title-winning dream

Could it be 10th time lucky for Benneteau? Could it be 10th time lucky for Benneteau?

The ATP World Tour makes the move to Asia in week 39 with two ATP 250 tournaments in Kuala Lumpur and Shenzen and Sean Calvert selects the best bets from both...

Could this be the week that Julien Benneteau finally wins a tour level event after nine losses in finals - one of which was in Kuala Lumpur 12 months ago?

Benny is in the field in Malaysia again and hoping to erase the memory of arguably the worst of his final defeats, which was to Joao Sousa, and the Portuguese will also be back to defend his title.

The Malaysian Open is played on a slow indoor hard Greenset surface, which is a decent indication why a player like Sousa was able to win here a year ago - it's not easy to hit winners in these conditions.

The field has been severely depleted by withdrawals, with Milos Raonic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Kevin Anderson among the names not now in attendance, so the tournament director will be delighted that Kei Nishikori is playing.

The US Open finalist is drawn in the top half, alongside US Open junior champion Omar Jasika and other young Aussie hope Nick Kyrgios, who has been less than excited on social media about playing here this week.

Leonardo Mayer is also in that half of the draw, as is Jarkko Nieminen, Pablo Andujar and Marinko Matosevic in what looks a fairly weak part of the draw and one that Nishikori should advance from.

It's far from certain though, with a US Open hangover likely and his home tournament in Tokyo coming up next week.

The bottom half seems much more open, with Ernests Gulbis the high seed and the Latvian has Bernard Tomic, Sousa, Benneteau, Pablo Cuevas, Jurgen Melzer and Ivan Dodig for company.

Gulbis has struggled after his semi final run at the French Open and he hasn't won back-to-back matches since.

He was injured at the US Open in a five set loss to his pal Dominic Thiem and comes here lacking matches and needing wins, which puts me off backing him this week.

Sousa will surely struggle with the jetlag after having a long week in Metz, while Tomic's dad, the ever-popular John Tomic, has said that his son will only be "70 to 80 percent fit" this week after a hip problem in New York.

Ivan Dodig looked anything but fit in a poor loss to Sousa in Metz and he was another who limped out of the US Open, which suggests he hasn't recovered sufficiently to win this week.

Melzer's title-winning days look behind him and I doubt he'll have the patience to win on this surface, all of which leaves us with Cuevas and Benny.

It would be a great story if Benny won his maiden title at the venue where he had a match point a year ago and he has been in decent form of late, with a great run in Cincy recently.

The Frenchman has only played a dead rubber in Davis Cup since the US Open, so he should be fit and boosted by his team's progress to the final of that competition.

As well as losing in the final last year, he did the same the year before here, so conditions and the time of the season suit him, which is more than can be said for many this week.

But if Sousa and Juan MOnaco can win here in these slow conditions then why not Cuevas, who was last seen pushing Kevin Anderson all the way to five sets in a match he should have won in hot conditions in New York?

The Uruguayan beat Nikolay Davydenko before losing to Sousa in three here last year and he has had some good wins down the years on both indoor and outdoor hard, including another over Davydenko, Raonic, Radek Stepanek and JC Ferrero (at his home tournament) all indoors.

At 81n/a it could make for an interesting small stakes play, as could Simone Bolelli over in Shenzen at the same price.

The Shenzen Open is a brand new event on the calendar this year and it's played on outdoor hard at the Longgang Sports Centre.

The likes of Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Tommy Robredo all play this week, but their commitment has to be questioned at this stage of the season and I'd rather take a long shot on.

Murray hasn't made a final since winning Wimbledon in 2013 and 250 ranking points for winning this won't do a lot for him in the grand scheme of things, while Ferrer has just split with his coach.

I would have major doubts over Gasquet's effort levels here, while Robredo should have been beaten by Bolelli in New York and the Italian could easily turn that result around this week.

Bolelli has been playing well of late and after beating Vasek Pospisil in the US Open he went two sets up on Robredo to lose in five and pushed Roger Federer in Davis Cup.

The Italian's draw alongside Andreas Seppi, who was injured last week in Metz, Robredo, Sam Groth, Santi Giraldo, Ferrer and very little else isn't the toughest and at a huge price he looks very interesting on current form.

With playing conditions unknown it seems unwise to back Murray or Ferrer this week and we know Bolelli is equally at home on quick surfaces after beating Philipp Kohlschreiber and almost Nishikori at Wimbledon on top of his good US Open and Davis Cup displays.

So, in Kuala Lumpur I'll take Benneteau and Cuevas against the field and I'll also have a small investment on Bolelli in Shenzen.

Recommended Bet
Back Benneteau to win Kuala Lumpur at 15.014/1

Best Cash Out Opportunities
Back Cuevas to win Kuala Lumpur at 80.079/1
Back Bolelli to win Shenzen at 80.079/1

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1077.00

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