US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Back Nishikori in battle of the debutants

Sean thinks Nishikori will be celebrating again on Monday

After a fortnight that's produced 18 winners from 23 daily bets at the US Open, tennis expert Sean Calvert previews the Men's Singles final between Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic...

Kei Nishikori's first set success over Novak Djokovic in Saturday's US Open semi final landed my 'to win a set' wager on the Japanese player in what's been a very profitable two weeks in New York.

It's not been without its questionable moments though, as I will be haunted by picking Nishikori as a likely first round upset, but I did say in my tournament previews that this year was "the most open looking Open in recent memory."

In fairness, Nishikori did say he didn't expect to win a round here due to his foot injury, so the lesson learned here is don't listen to Kei when he says he's not fit.

Let's hope for his sake that his fitness doesn't let him down on Monday when he takes to the court in the first US Open final since 1997 that features two player making their grand slam final debuts.

That 1997 final, which featured Greg Rusedksi and Pat Rafter was the last US Open final not to feature a top-10 ranked player, although Nishikori will be back in the top-10 after the final and Cilic will be if he wins.

That's enough history though and on to Monday, where the heat is set to be a little less of a factor than it has been lately, with highs of only around 24C when the match starts, but it will still be quite humid.

The wind could be more of an issue, with 14mph gusts expected, which hopefully won't make for a scrappy, low quality affair.

I would personally favour Nishikori's more reliable game in those circumstances over Cilic, who was pretty awful in tricky conditions in a dreadful match with Kevin Anderson.

He came through it though and went on to defeat an out of sorts Tomas Berdych before a really excellent display against Roger Federer on Saturday night in which the Swiss was outgunned by the best showing I can recall from Cilic.

Pretty much everything was working for the Croat and Federer didn't really get into the match at any stage, other than briefly in the third set, and if he can repeat that form Cilic has every chance.

He does have a poor record against Nishikori though of 2-5 and the Japanese won the two this year, which along a personal view that Kei is the classier operator makes him slight favourite in my eyes and those of the layers.

I said in my tournament preview that Cilic could make the quarters or semis in a good fortnight, but he's surpassed that and I must admit I didn't see him as a major finalist.

It was the consistency that surprised me against Federer in the semi finals and I can't have been the only one that was waiting for his radar to malfunction and the errors start to leak from his racquet.

It didn't really happen though and unless one or the other is injured or suffers badly from big occasion nerves it could yet be a tight one.

Nishikori's return of serve and for me better temperament and shot production give him the edge and unless his body lets him down I would expect him to win in probably four sets.

It might even go five and the overs is possible here, but the 4.77/2 about a 3-1 Nishikori win or the 1.9420/21 about the outright win look the ones to me.

Recommended Bet
Back Nishikori to beat Cilic 3-1 at 4.77/2

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1127.00