Against All Odds: Argentinian heavyweights to pack a punch

Can Ignacio Scocco relive former glories?

There's a mouth-watering clash in Argentina this evening as Newell's Old Boys travel to Velez Sarsfield and Paul Robinson is predicting a hugely entertaining affair...

Velez Sarsfield v Newell's Old Boys
Saturday September 6, 21:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Velez had the wind taken out of their sails last weekend as they endured their first defeat of the season - a 3-1 loss at Boca Juniors. They couldn't have faced Boca at a worse time though as it was the hosts first game under new management and the result is easily forgivable.

Jos Oscar Flores' side are up in second place - just one point behind leaders, River Plate. They have scored nine goals so far this year and with four conceded at the other end, their matches are averaging 2.6 goals each time. I appreciate that that is a small sample size but if we look back to last term, their fixtures averaged a whopping 3.16 goals per 90 minutes - the highest in the entire division.

Newell's Old Boys come into this match sitting just one place and one point behind tonight's opponents. Aside from River Plate, they are the only undefeated club left in the league and they will be hoping to emulate their success in 2013 where new Argentina manager, Gerardo Martino, led them to the title, with Ignacio Scocco finishing as the league's top scorer.

Scocco is back at the club following a couple of failed moves to Internacional and Sunderland, and he will be keen to get among the goals again. 'La Lepra' have netted nine so far this term but the defence have shipped half a dozen. Two of their five have gone over 2.5 - in fact, they both went over 4.5 - and their last away game resulted in a 3-2 victory.

It's likely that these are the two clubs who will be challenging River for the title so this should be a good early barometer to see who's got the edge. In their two matches last year, the scores were 4-1 and 3-0 to the home side. I expect goals again, so with under 2.5 trading as low as 1.635/8, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Velez v Newells @ 1.635/8

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 239 pts
Returned: 246.55 pts
P/L: + 7.55 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)