Premier League Stats Review: Chelsea can continue flying start with clear-cut win over Swans

Diego Costa: Transformed Chelsea's goalscoring profile

Andrew Atherley analyses the figures that point to plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge on Saturday - and suggests two ways of profiting from this outcome...

Chelsea's goalscoring is already on a different level now that Diego Costa is leading the attack and the upward trajectory is worth following with a couple of bets on Saturday's home match against Swansea.

Something has to give at Stamford Bridge, with the two sides boasting the only remaining 100% records in the Premier League, and most likely it is Chelsea who will emerge with maximum points. That being the case, there is the opportunity to improve the odds by backing Chelsea off -1.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.9520/21.

To some extent, Chelsea's goalscoring potential depends on whether Costa recovers from a hamstring injury but the signs are hopeful and, in any event, Chelsea's goalscoring midfielders should enjoy plenty of chances against Swansea.

Despite their excellent start this season, Swansea's away record against the better sides is unimpressive. Last season they lost seven out of 10 on their visits to top-half teams, although they did improve after Garry Monk's appointment as manager with a W1 D2 L2 record under him, followed on the opening day of this season with a 2-1 win at Manchester United.

Swansea's open style of play appears to be both their strength and weakness - and will probably be the latter against Chelsea. Last season their only two clean sheets on the road came at West Brom and Crystal Palace (both before Monk took charge) and they conceded again at Old Trafford in this season's only away game so far.

Supporters will point out that the win over Manchester United proved Swansea can take the game to the big teams on the road and succeed, but Jose Mourinho's Chelsea will be much better organised than United and they will welcome Swansea coming on to them.

Even last season, Chelsea won 15 out of 17 at Stamford Bridge when they scored and Swansea's figures indicate a very low chance of a shutout on Saturday. With two-thirds of Chelsea's home wins last season (nine out of 15) having been achieved by two or more goals, there is good value in backing them to press home any advantage.

At -1.5 on the Asian handicap, backers will collect if Chelsea win by more than a goal and Costa's rapid adaptation to the Premier League increases the likelihood of that happening. The 32m striker has scored in all three games so far and Chelsea have won each time by at least two goals - a feat they achieved three times in a row only once last season.

That means we could see a return to the figures achieved in Mourinho's first spell at Stamford Bridge, when the attack was led by Didier Drogba and 54% of Chelsea's home wins were by a margin of least two goals.

It is arguable that Chelsea should be as short as 1.738/11 off -1.5 on the Asian handicap and the value that exists at the moment might not be around too much longer if the goals continue to flow.

There is also a high probability of over 2.5 goals judged on Chelsea's numbers last season when matches opened up at the Bridge. Of the 17 home games in which they scored, 13 (76%) went over 2.5 goals.

That is beyond the norm for a Mourinho team - in his first spell at Chelsea, 55% of their scoring home games went over 2.5 goals - but their defence is still less secure than he would like and Swansea have scored in seven of their eight away games under Monk, with six going over 2.5 goals.

Once again, it is arguable that over 2.5 goals is too big at 1.758/11. That would be the best bet if Costa is absent, but if he plays Chelsea could reward a two-pronged approach.

Recommended Bets

Back Chelsea off -1.5 on Asian Handicap v Swansea @ 1.9520/21 (1pt)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Chelsea v Swansea @ 1.758/11 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 5 pts
Returned: 2.87 pts
P/L: -2.13 pts