8 important Champions League trends

8 important Champions League trends

By Michael Gales Sep 10, 2014

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With experience, team nationality and past manager success key indicators to winning the Champions League, it’s in a bettor’s interest to read these eight key Champions League betting trends before picking a 2014/15 UCL winner.

Champions League experience key to success

65% of winners in the past 20 years – and all of the last nine – have been involved in the competition at the Group stages the previous year. However, looking over the last decade this number has increased dramatically to 80%.

Only Liverpool of the favoured teams – according to Pinnacle Sports – to win the Champions League were not involved in last year’s group stages.

The Reds are returning to Europe’s elite competition after a five-year absence and can be backed at 18.500* to win their sixth title.

Interestingly of the other ten teams given a realistic chance of winning by Pinnacle Sports, all but Juventus qualified for the second round last season.

Tough task for favourites Real Madrid

After beating city neighbours Atletico in last years Champions League to win their first title since 2001-2002, Real are offered as the 4.460* favourites with Pinnacle Sports.

Despite being given an implied probability of 22.42% to defend their title in 2014/15, bettors should understand the difficulty they face.

Many teams have been favoured to defend their title – like Bayern last year – however no team has managed the feat in the last 25 years – AC Milan were the last side to do so back in the 1989-90 European Cup.

Can the Real Madrid Galacticos break the hoodoo and do what they did from 1956-1960 and defend the Champions League crown?

The country phenomena

The Champions League winners have not come from the same nation in consecutive seasons in the last 24 years. And excluding Milan’s back-to-back titles in ’88 & ’89, no Champions League winner has come from the same nation consecutively since 1982.

Contrary to this, Real are favourites to lift the cup, Barcelona are third favourites at 6.340*, while beaten 2014 finalists Atletico Madrid can be backed at 21.000*.

Domestic success 12 months earlier

In the past two decades, 80% of Champions League winners finished inside the top two positions of their domestic leagues the previous season, while 55% have won their respective leagues. Interestingly the last three winners – Chelsea, Bayern Munich & Real Madrid – all failed to win their own domestic leagues the season previous.

2012 winners Chelsea 7.650* have finished sixth and twice third over the past two seasons, despite being outlined as fourth favourites to lift this year’s title. Back in 2009, Barcelona were the last team to win the Champions League after finishing outside the top two 12 months earlier.

New winners are a rarity

Teams who have never lifted the Champions League trophy have historically struggled to break the mould set by the big clubs since Barcelona’s inaugural win in 1992.

In the 22 years preceding this year’s competition, only three new winners have lifted the famous trophy – Marseille (1993), Dortmund (1997) and Chelsea (2012).

PSG are available at 12.300* to go further than last years quarter-final and win their first Champions League trophy.

Country Breakdown

Only two teams have won the Champions League in the past 21 years outside of Spain, Italy, England and Germany. In fact, 16 of those have been English, Spanish or Italian.

Ten of the favourites with Pinnacle Sports to lift the trophy this term are from the four major nations, with PSG the highest-rated outsider.

Successful manager key

A manager’s form in the competition can be seen as a trend in recent times. Six of the last eight winning managers have already lifted the trophy previously.

Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola have each lifted the Champions League trophy twice before, while Carlo Ancelotti won the trophy for a third time last year.

Early form a key indicator

A massive 75% of Champions League winning teams over the past 20 years have won their respective groups earlier in the tournament, including seven of the last eight winners. Last year all eight-group winners progressed to the quarter-finals.

Click here to see Pinnacle Sports’ latest 2014/15 Champions League outright odds.

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