Football Bet of the Day: Backing Sonderjyske is too big a risk

Will it be smooth sailing for us in Denmark today?

After an excellent week for Tobias Gourlay, Kevin Hatchard's back in the hotseat, and is looking for a cool profit in the Danish Superliga.

Sonderjyske v Hobro
Monday September 15th, 18:00

Before we get underway, let's doff our collective cap to our esteemed friend Tobias Gourlay, who has just signed off on a week featuring five winners. TG, we salute you.

As Mr Gourlay spends his winnings on wine/women/song (delete as applicable), let us begin in the same fashion as we started my last week on duty, with a game in the Danish Superliga.

Newly-promoted Hobro are ripping up the top flight, having collected 13 points from their first six games. Not only are Jonas Dal's men picking up points at their North Jutland home, but they are also having success on the road. They have won two of their three away games, including a stunning 3-0 success at FC Copenhagen.

Having scored 11 goals in Hobro's promotion campaign, 22-year-old striker Mads Hvilsom is having a blinder, bagging five goals in just six Superliga appearances. Hobro have scored in all but one of their league games so far, and they are averaging two goals per game on their travels.

While Hobro are sitting pretty in second, Sonderjyske are playing the part of the ugly sister, lurking around in tenth. They have managed just one win in six games, and they are yet to taste success at Sydbank Park. Their biggest problem is goalscoring - they have managed to hit the net just five times in six games, and only the bottom side Silkeborg have scored few goals so far.

Given the current form of the two sides, the Match Odds market seems a bit awry. Sonderjyske are 2.26/5 for the win, which surely can't be justified given the form of their opponents. Now, if you're feeling brave, you could back Hobro to pick up their third away win at a chunky 3.7511/4, but I'll plump for the slightly more cautious approach and back the visitors Draw No Bet at 2.77/4.

Recommended Bet

Back Hobro Draw No Bet at 2.77/4

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 21

Points Returned: 20.12

P/L: -0.88 points