ATP Moselle Open Betting: Monfils and Dodig look the best bets in Metz

Can Monfils land his second Metz title this week?

After a fine run of winners at the US Open, Sean Calvert returns to cast his eye over this week's ATP Moselle Open tournament in Metz, France...

The ATP World Tour returns in week 38 of the season, but with a rather different look than the ATP expected when the 2014 calendar was first announced.

There should have been either St Petersburg or Tel Aviv in addition to Metz this week, but the Russian event was moved to Israel and, due to the instability in that region, the tournament was cancelled.

So, we're left with just the ATP 250 Moselle Open this week and this €410,200 prize fund tournament is played on indoor hard on a slow Greenset surface and has been dominated by home players in recent years.

A Frenchman has won here for the last five years and 12 months ago it was Gilles Simon who won his second Moselle Open title, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final.

Indeed, Simon, who had just become a father that week if memory serves, defeated Tsonga, Nicolas Mahut, Sam Querrey and Kenny de Schepper - all big servers - in straight sets last year, which tells us it's not quick here in Metz.

There's no Simon in the field this time around, but as usual here there are plenty of French representatives, including Tsonga, Gael Monfils, and Jeremy Chardy.

Tsonga heads the field as favourite and number one seed and he's been drawn in what looks the toughest half, along with Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Goffin, Chardy, Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin.

Big Jo has a 13-2 record here and he'll probably play either Gilles Muller or Roger-Vasselin first up.

The 2.75n/a about Tsonga is a little short for my liking though and I prefer the 4.57/2 about our number two seed this week Monfils.

Lamonf has an almost identical record here to Tsonga with a 13-3 mark in Metz and he's been impressive lately, with a very professional run in New York ending a round too early, after he failed with a couple of match points against Roger Federer.

Fitness has always been a big issue with Monfils, but he only played three sets of tennis in Davis Cup at home in Paris and so it shouldn't exactly be taxing for him to travel to Metz and go deep here again.

The draw is decent for Monfils, with his half including Lukas Rosol, who was thrashed by Tsonga in the France vs Czech Republic Davis Cup tie on Friday, and also Jerzy Janowicz, Joao Sousa, Andreas Seppi, Ivan Dodig, Jarkko Nieminen, Paul-Henri Mathieu and Benjamin Becker.

Of these, I quite like the idea of including Ivan Dodig in the back-to-lay list as cover for Monfils at a handy price of around 34.033/1.

The Croatian was more than a touch unlucky that he had to retire in the US Open against Feli Lopez in a match that he was the better player in and after a couple of weeks off he should be fit to contend here.

Dodig can't have been that bad, as he continued all the way to the semis in the doubles in New York and he has more than a decent shot against Sousa in the first round here.

The Portuguese was beaten by Evgeny Donskoy in Portugal's 4-1 loss to Russia in Davis Cup this weekend in his only singles rubber and confidence must be low with Sousa after a drubbing from Goffin in New York prior to that.

Seppi and Igor Sijsling are also both low on confidence right now and the latter is really struggling and can be counted out with confidence, while Nieminen's title winning days look to be over.

Sergiy Stakhovsky and Adrian Mannarino don't look up to it, but Janowicz could always have a good week if his head is in the right place, but at a skinny-looking 17.016/1 I wouldn't count on it.

Benjamin Becker could go well if he gets on a roll, but I feel that Dodig is the best of the outsiders in the bottom half and perhaps Muller could be one for the shortlist in the top half at around 51.0n/a.

The bottom half looks the place to be betting though and Monfils and Dodig are my two against the field this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Monfils at 4.57/2

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Dodig at 34.033/1

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1097.00