пятница, 13 февраля 2015 г.

Championship Betting: Bees can put a sting in Charlton's survival chances

Warbuton's men are looking to make it four straight away wins

Just one winner for Mike Norman in midweek but it was his best bet selection meaning his Championship P/L is ticking over nicely. Here's our man's three recommended wagers from Saturday's fixtures...

Blackpool 4.216/5 v Nottm Forest 2.01/1; The Draw 3.613/5

It's two wins out of two for new Nottm Forest boss Dougie Freedman, and some might have expected them to be odds-on for the away trip to bottom-of-the-table Blackpool. I know I certainly did.

But perhaps Betfairians are thinking along the same lines as me, that Lee Clark's men can definitely get something out of this game. My own reasons are two-fold.

The first reason is that the Bloomfield Road pitch is in a terrible state, and so often a bad playing surface can be a great leveller. My own side Middlesbrough certainly struggled there on Tuesday night. True, Boro made a lot of changes but they are still in great form, had a strong team on the pitch, yet they simply failed to get going and created very few clear cut chances.

My other reason for having a hunch for Blackpool here is that Forest had been very poor up until this last week and I'd like to see more evidence that they've turned the corner before backing them at short odds away from home.

Forest had lost six of their previous seven prior to Freedman's arrival, and their two wins under the new manager both came against clubs at the wrong end of the table. And they were also dealt a huge blow during Wednesday night's victory over Wigan when Britt Assombalonga was taken off with a suspected serious knee injury.

The Tangerines are no great shakes obviously, but they won back-to-back home games without conceding prior to losing to Boro in midweek, and I beleive they are well worth a wager to cause a minor shock here.

Recommended Bet
Back Blackpool to Win @ 4.216/5

Bournemouth 1.564/7 v Huddersfield 7.06/1; The Draw 4.57/2

We're well past the stage of the season where clubs can claim to be in a 'false position' - the league table doesn't lie after 30 games and right now it is telling us that Bournemouth are by far one of the best sides in the division.

The Cherries sit second in the table and are the highest scorers in the league - 16 goals more than leaders Middlesbrough. Eddie Howe's men suffered a surprise loss to Norwich a few weeks ago but that was their first league defeat at Dean Court since September.

In other words, Bournemouth are generally very reliable on home soil and they know how to find the back of the net - they scored five against Cardiff in front of their own fans and exactly two in each of their home games against Fulham, Watford, and Derby in recent weeks.

I can see Howe's men scoring two or three quite easily in this game, and backing them with a -1 handicap on the Sportsbook looks a very decent wager.

The Terriers have been very in and out of late under Chris Powell, but Tuesday night's home loss to Wolves, conceding four goals, will have surely dented confidence amongst the West Yorkshire outfit, and perhaps the last game they'll want right now is a long trip to an in-form, title-chasing Bournemouth side.

Recommended Bet
Back Bournemouth -1 to Win @ 13/10 (Sportsbook)

Charlton 3.711/4 v Brentford 2.226/5; The Draw 3.613/5

As I often advocate, one of the best ways to make a profit in the Championship is not just by following in-form teams, but by opposing out-of-form ones. And you'll go a long way to find a more out of form side than Charlton right now.

The Addicks, if you need reminding, were the last team in this division to lose their unbeaten record. It was 11 games before they tasted defeat, a 1-0 loss at Bournemouth in the middle of October finally putting an end to their fantastic start to the season.

Fast forward four months and Charlton now sit 20th in the table, just three points above the drop zone, and on a run of 14 games without a win. Ironically, Charlton's last win at The Valley came the very next game after they lost to Bournemouth, almost four months ago now.

So of course we're opposing Guy Luzon's men here, but the good news is that we're opposing them with a very decent promotion-chasing side in Brentford. The Bees have been one of the surprise packages in the Championship this term, but as I've already said the league table doesn't lie at this stage of the season.

Brentford are a top six side under the excellent Mark Warburton, and their success can largely be put down to their away form - they've won three on the bounce on the road and I fully expect them to make it four this weekend in the London derby.

Recommended Bet
Back Brentford to Win @ 2.226/5 (best bet)

Championship 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 108 pts
Returned: 131.04 pts
P/L: + 23.04 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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