Mike fancies Roberto Martinez's Everton to win at West Brom
The Premier League returns on Saturday with six afternoon games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm, and using a combination of Opta stats and form Mike Norman has provided a recommended wager in each...
Crystal Palace 2.285/4 v Burnley 3.711/4; The Draw 3.412/5
We endured a torrid time of things just before the international break but when you get results like Stoke winning at the Etihad, Swansea thrashing West Brom, QPR getting their first win of the season, and a 3-3 draw between Newcastle and Crystal Palace then I dare say there were a lot of people in the same boat as myself.
In football betting you just have to keep trusting your judgement and before long the results will go the way you expect - starting this weekend hopefully.
Both Palace and Burnley are still looking for their first league win of the season but if the home side can replicate anything like the form they showed at the end of last term then the 2.285/4 about them winning this game would look huge.
Neil Warnock's men certainly haven't lacked for goals this campaign (eight scored in four league and cup games) and they'll take great encouragement from the 3-3 draw they earned at Newcastle just before the international break.
Fans' favourite Wilfried Zaha is back at the club on loan from Manchester United, while Deadline Day signings James McArthur, Zeki Fryers, and Kevin Doyle will provide Warnock with plenty of options in a number of positions.
The Clarets also added a few players on TDD but so far they've struggled for goals this season, scoring just one in four league and cup games, and I can see an improving Crystal Palace side taking all three points from this encounter.
Recommended Bet
Back Crystal Palace to Win @ 2.285/4
Chelsea 1.321/3 v Swansea 13.012/1; The Draw 6.05/1
A meeting between the only two sides in the Premier League yet to drop points but you get a strong feeling that at the final whistle - as the Match Odds suggest - it will be Chelsea who will still have a 100% record.
It goes without saying that Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa have made a huge difference to Jose Mourinho's team and you can't see the Blues being shy when it comes to scoring goals this term - as 11 in three league games testify.
Huge credit must go to Swansea also however; Garry Monk's men were very impressive in beating West Brom 3-0 a fortnight ago and it appears the Welsh outfit have a much better squad than I originally gave them credit for, one capable of finishing around mid-table perhaps. It's still early days though and it will be interesting to see how they react to a few defeats.
I expect the Swans to lose at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, just like they have - as Opta point out - in all three Premier League games at the home of Chelsea. But you won't get rich backing the Blues at 1.321/3 (even though I actually think that's a generous price) so let's take a chance on Mourinho's men keeping a second successive clean sheet at the Bridge and winning to nil.
Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.111/10
Southampton 1.824/5 v Newcastle 5.24/1; The Draw 3.8514/5
It's slightly disappointing that Newcastle have yet to record a league win this season, while Southampton - despite having just two more points than the Magpies - have looked a very good team.
Following all the summer departures it was imperative that Ronald Koeman kept hold of star midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin, but it's the signing of Dusan Tadic that has really caught my eye; the Serbian attacking playmakers looks to be a fantastic acquisition to the Premier League.
I don't really have a strong opinion in this encounter though I'd be surprised if the Saints don't record a home win. Opta tell us that they have a fantastic record against Newcastle at St Mary's, winning 10 of their last 14 home games against the north-east club.
In addition to the above, Southampton have scored in each of their last 24 home league games against Newcastle while Alan Pardew's men have failed to score in seven of their last nine away league games. If these trends continue then the home win looks banker material!
Recommended Bet
Back Southampton to Win @ 1.824/5
Stoke 2.186/5 v Leicester 4.03/1; The Draw 3.3512/5
Credit to Leicester, they've faced Everton, Chelsea, and Arsenal so far this season and they've only lost one of those games. That was away from home however (to Chelsea) and their two home games resulted in draws.
Stoke at the Britannia Stadium is another extremely tough game for Nigel Pearson's men however, and the only surprise to me is that all four of the Potters' points this term have been accumulated away from home, including that terrific victory over Manchester City last time out.
Mark Hughes' men had one of the best home records in the Premier League last term and I'm willing to forgive them their opening home game defeat at the hands of an in-form Aston Villa side.
Again, I don't have a strong opinion on the outcome of this match but I certainly wouldn't be wanting to oppose Stoke. Indeed, Opta tell us that they're unbeaten in five home meetings with Leicester in all competitions, and that none of the last 10 clashes between the Potters and the Foxes have been won by the away side.
Going on the above then, a home win has to be the call.
Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.186/5
Sunderland 3.7511/4 v Tottenham 2.186/5; The Draw 3.55n/a
Perhaps my confidence has been knocked slightly after a few poor weeks of tipping in this division, but this is another game that I don't really have a strong opinion on when it comes to the Match Odds market.
Sunderland did really well to take a point from the Hawthorns on the opening day of the season and then performed well again to hold Manchester United to a draw at the Stadium of Light. But they were then very disappointing when carrying our money at QPR a fortnight ago.
It's not too dissimilar a story for Spurs - they did well to beat West Ham in week one, thrashed QPR a week later, and then were quietly fancied at home to Liverpool two weeks ago only to be well beaten.
So I'm expecting this to be a really tight game - as I say, I can't call it.
But I do fancy the net to bulge a few times and the 2.111/10 on offer about Over 2.5 Goals being scored is worth chancing.
Opta tell us that Tottenham's last four league away wins against Sunderland have all ended 1-2, so given that the Lilywhites scored four the league game before last and conceded three against Livepool, while the Black Cats have already been involved in a 2-2 draw this term, then witnessing at least three goals in this match shouldn't be too much to expect.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.111/10
West Brom 3.65n/a v Everton 2.26/5; The Draw 3.55n/a
Opta tell us that West Brom have won just one of their last 10 Premier League home games and that has to be a worry ahead of the visit of Everton.
The Baggies performed really well in their opening two games against Sunderland and Southampton but failed to win any of those matches, and Alan Irvine's men have since failed to beat League Two outfit Oxford inside 90 minutes in the League Cup before being heavily defeated by Swansea a fortnight ago.
So perhaps confidence is a bit low within the Albion camp and I fully expect Everton to take advantage.
True, the Toffees have conceded an alarming 10 goals in just three league games this term - easily the worst in the Premier League - but the six they conceded to Chelsea can be put down to that being just a 'freak' game, while conceding two against Arsenal, and two away at a buoyant Leicester on the opening day of the season, was hardly a disgrace.
At the other end of the pitch Robrto Martinez' men have been in fine goalscoring form (seven league goals in three games) and if they can continue in the same vein at the Hawthorns then they will have a great chance of taking all three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Everton to Win @ 2.26/5
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 9 pts
Returned: 3.6 pts
P/L: - 5.4 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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