Walsall manager Dean Smith
Alan Dudman appears to be falling in love with Walsall, and Dean Smith's side take centre stage again for an interesting betting angle for the weekend and the future, although a rejuvenated Oldham Athletic look the best bet this Saturday...
Walsall 3.55/2 v Preston North End 2.35/4, the draw 3.412/5
It's Walsall again! I apologise, but if there's an interesting team from a trading point of view, it's the Saddlers. Now, if you had backed the 0-0 this term at odds of 10.09/1 in league matches for Dean Smith's side, your net profit would be 27 points from a single point staking plan. Of course it's typical in the match I offered up the 0-0 versus Yeovil earlier on, it ended up finishing 1-2.
The reason I wanted to flag up the Midlanders again is their draw ratio - it's staggering. Four from six this season have been stalemates, and this was a huge problem last season as well. In 2013/4 they also drew far too many, and having watched them recently at Orient (finished goalless) I can see why they don't score many.
In theory, we should be able to collect at least four or five more 0-0's before next April, and I believe backing this scoreline every week will be able to make you a profit. I briefly delved into their record during the previous campaign, and they astonishingly collected 12 scorelines of 1-1.
In terms of form, Walsall look in a false position within the drop zone. Yes Smith has had a few injuries to deal with, but they look a side that play better than one with just four points from six matches.
On the plus side, plenty of youngsters have come in, as seen with Liam Kinsella who has excelled at right-back, and the 18-year-old is unsurprisingly earning rave reviews. He's not the only one, as three other youngsters got their chance at the weekend against Colchester.
Preston meanwhile are chugging along, but they are capable of better. Manager Simon Grayson has unsurprisingly been linked with the vacant Leeds United job, but I'm not sure it would be the right fit for the 44-year-old.
North End's league form has suffered again from netting too many draws - with three so far (all of which were 1-1). They will be fresher as they had no game on Saturday, but they need to starting winning more matches.
Opta Stats
The Saddlers have tasted defeat just twice in their last 16 home matches with Preston, winning 11 and drawing three.
North End won both matches with Walsall last season.
Walsall are winless in their first six games, their worst start to a season since 1990/91.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
It's fairly obvious where I am going with this. Walsall have gained three 0-0 scores so far, whilst Preston have the same amount of 1-1's. Offering both up as trades should give us a good chance of making a profit here. Remember North End were outplayed at home to Oldham Athletic recently, and Walsall keep the ball just as well.
My outright win bet will be the draw at 3.4012/5, but of course can be used to green up if necessary.
Summary
Preston have a stronger squad and better players, and in attackers such as Josh Brownhill and Joel Garner, they have some really exciting footballers at this level. Whereas Walsall continually lack a cutting edge up front. In theory, the visitors are an excellent price at 2.305/4, as Walsall are without a victory from their last 12 matches going back to last term. Walsall should go 4-4-2, whereas Preston use a variety of formations, but they should utilise a midfield three. I like the under 2.5 goals as a bet, but not at the price as it's too short at 1.748/11, so it's the draw as the outright.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.412/5
Oldham Athletic 2.0811/10 v Gillingham 4.03/1, the draw 3.55n/a
Oldham probably are my best bet this Saturday, as they have looked really solid in their last three matches. Saturday's 1-0 home victory against Fleetwood reads as a really fine result, as the Cod Army are a decent side. Certain aspects of their play impressed, and new signing Dominic Poleon is definitely a player for the future.
Prior to that, manager Lee Johnson's team gained a 2-0 win at Doncaster, a match where they hit Rovers on the counter-attack. The Latics also played very well at Preston as mentioned earlier, so unsurprisingly Johnson has hailed a 'very good week'.
Overall Oldham's form reads eight points from six games with two clean sheets from their last two, and four of six under 2.5 goals.
Gillingham meanwhile have netted seven points thus far and done well in the Ricoh storm last Friday night (a game previewed in this column). That was always going to be a tough match against the returning Sky Blues, but they played well and had some good chances in the second-half. In fact, they dominated the latter stages and were unlucky not to gain something from the match.
Cody McDonald actually captained the Gills last week, the fourth skipper manager Peter Taylor has used, and I'm not sure this conveys a good message. McDonald's strike partner Danny Kedwell (who has netted four this term) has a problem with his knee and Taylor will be assessing his injury in terms of a potential longer spell out.
The Kent club possibly lack some experience in the middle of the pitch, and I can't back them with confidence even at generous odds of 4.03/1. Taylor is changing formations too, which might explain the three losses in all three of their away games.
Opta Stats
Oldham Athletic have won their last five home matches against the Gills conceding only two in that period.
The Kent club have managed just three goals across their 10 most recent matches against Oldham.
Jonathan Forte has scored five goals in his opening six games, more than he has managed in two previous campaigns (four goals).
Gillingham are one of two sides in the division without an away point this term.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
If Kedwell doesn't start, I fear Gillingham will struggle to find the net, whilst Oldham are keeping clean sheets and only conceded one against the title favourites Preston. In short, the home team look extremely organised, and will still be happy playing on the counter-attack even though they are the hosts. I would select the 1-0 home victory as a correct scoreline bet, with a chance to cash out before 90 minutes.
Summary
We have another under 2.5 goals market which reads very short at 1.865/6, which is why I prefer a dart at the scoreline. I mentioned last weekend how I am still to be convinced with Gills boss Peter Taylor, and changing skippers and formations just looks fuzzy thinking (thanks to David Brent for that), and at odds-against, the Latics are my best bet on Saturday.
Recommended Bet
Back Oldham Athletic to win @ 2.0811/10
Chesterfield 1.9110/11 v Scunthorpe United 4.67/2, the draw 3.613/5
The Spirerites had a blank Saturday last weekend, and considering injuries were really stretching them recently, manager Paul Cook will be delighted with the chance to rest his men. As one of the promoted sides, Chesterfield have something about them, certainly according to MK Dons boss Karl Robinson who was very complimentary after his team's 1-0 win earlier this term.
Cook uses a passing game, but they have tremendous energy and move the ball quickly. Centre-back Ian Evatt is a great player at this level, as is Gary Roberts, who surely is one of the most inventive attackers in the third tier. He seems to be enjoying his role in the side, and his influence was crucial in the most recent 2-1 win at Port Vale (Roberts scored one and created the other).
Chesterfield's points tally is 10 so far and they have won three games, and if you like backing 2-1 scores, then Chesterfield are your team - all three of those successes have read 2-1. Cook uses a 4-5-1 with Eoin Doyle as the lone forward, Roberts buzzes around in behind, with a holding 'two' in midfield.
Fellow promoted side Scunthorpe haven't quite settled in to League One life as swiftly, but goodness they've had some tough games. Manager Russ Wilcox will probably face a bit of a relegation battle this term, as they only have four points and sit in 22nd.
United were beaten fair and square last Saturday at Bristol City, and looked awfully tired in the final 15 minutes. Wilcox has a thin squad, and it was stretched to the limit prior to the Ashton Gate trip, with reports suggesting eight or nine players were doubtful. The Iron were set-up very defensively at Bristol City, virtually playing a back six as they sit deeper and deeper to deal with the opposition pace.
On the attack front, Paddy Madden is proven in League One, and he's a pure goalscorer, whilst veteran Gary McSheffrey (who plays in a pocket behind Madden), has a great left foot whose quality from dead-ball situations is high. And if you haven't seen it already, watch 18 year-old Hakeeb Adelukan's goal against Walsall recently, an amazing swirling run capped off by a fine finish.
Opta Stats
The Spirerites are without a win in four matches at home to Scunthorpe United (D1 L3).
The Iron are unbeaten with Chesterfield in eight meetings (W4, D4).
Chesterfield have hit the woodwork five times this season - the most in League One.
Scunthorpe have conceded eight second-half goals this campaign - no side has conceded more.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
Using the Opta stat above, that the Iron have a propensity to concede later in the game, I would look to back the hosts at above 1.9110/11 well into the first-half (if of course it remains goalless). Chesterfield should be fitter with the free weekend last Saturday, so it might be worth waiting to stretch out that odds-on price. The 2-1 scoreline will obviously be of interest considering the home team's record, and this trades at 11.010/1.
Summary
Scunthorpe at the moment do not look strong or consistent enough in both boxes to back at 4.607/2, although I do think they'll play and sit very deep and hit Chesterfield on the counter-attack. However, if Gary Roberts can weave his magic, he could be the match winner.
Recommended Bet
Back Chesterfield to win @ 1.9110/11
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 4.03 pts
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