понедельник, 1 сентября 2014 г.

League Two Betting: Morecambe a big price at Rovers

Jim Bentley doesn't want Morecambe to be known as comeback kings - but if they continue to win from behind he surely won't care

Morecambe and Cheltenham have started the season well, when neither were front-runners among those expected to challenge at the top end. They still may not, but Ian Lamont says back sides while they are in form...

Tranmere 2.47/5 v Morecambe 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Rarely will the league leaders be 3.55/2 to win away. But then rarely will Jim Bentley's men be league leaders, unless he becomes Oxford manager on the back of continued tremendous things at Morecambe and pushes the U's into an overdue promotion-winning campaign next season. 

Morecambe are not the best supported side or one with the biggest budget, but they make the best of what they have. They took a chance on promoting Bentley from dressing room to gaffer's room and have stuck with him through thick and think. At present they are reaping rewards.

Jack Redshaw's rejection of a move to Peterborough shows confidence in Morecambe's metamorphosis and we, as punters, should back them while their form lasts. A loaned in left back might be needed after Lawrence Wilson's injury against Cambridge, but the Shrimpers were glad of a midweek off and mostly will be refreshed for what ought to be a challenging match.

I hear suggestions that Morecambe's defence has weaknesses. Luckily they come up against one which conceded three times in six minutes so, if they do fall behind - like they did at home to Newport - they have every chance of coming back. Their price has already clipped in a little - and Tranmere's lengthened. Bentley might not like Morecambe being known as comeback kings, but if they keep winning he really won't care. It is early days, but Opta tell us Tranmere have dropped more points (six) from leading positions than anyone else this season.

Recommended Bet
Back Morecambe @ 3.55/2

Cheltenham 2.111/10 v Hartlepool 4.03/1; the draw 3.55/2

Ten points for Mark Yates' men took a lot longer than this to accumulate last season - 11 games in fact. The Robins boss has decried how 'apparently' his team has no stars. He knows better, especially with Matt Richards in the side, to say nothing of the growing confidence of Koby Arthur and Jordan Wynter, on loan from Bristol City.

Cheltenham are now about half the 60.059/1 price to win the title they were when the season began and, at the match win price against Hartlepool, ought to be backed while that form continues. Who knows? It could run most of the season. Certainly, Robins fans would have been anticipating going one better than reaching the play-off final two seasons ago.

Byron Harrison will want to make sure he doesn't miss out on the scoring act that Cheltenham have produced and they are no strangers to comebacks, such as the one at Tranmere. Yates might not want to make a habit of doing that, however, preferring to score first and close out the game.

Hartlepool's Luke James, a regular scorer last season, might be back for this game, but Ryan Brobbel - who played for York City's play-off earning team last season - must wonder what on earth he has got himself into after a poor start by Colin Cooper's side. Can he be persuaded to stay longer than an initial month's loan from Middlesbrough? A good result at Whaddon Road might do it, but I think earning points there is unlikely. Opta indicate as much. The visitors have never kept a league clean sheet at Cheltenham.

Recommended Bet
Back Cheltenham @ 2.111/10

Shrewsbury 2.35/4 v Luton 3.55/2; the draw 3.412/5

John Still hasn't had the start to the season he probably envisaged, with two home defeats, but away form has reaped four points for Luton, including a comeback from 2-0 down to draw at Accrington last Saturday.

The good news is Scott Griffiths could recover from a knock, but the bad news is Shaun Whalley, Jonathan Smith and Alex Lawless are still out.

The Shrews, meanwhile, have made a flying start and are on a high after winning at Leicester City in the League Cup. Micky Mellon is delighted to add Anthony Griffiths to his midfield, the former Port Vale player signing a one-year deal. Griffiths says he has signed to do the 'nitty gritty' and every team can do with an enforcer, even if their defence is acting strong already, facing fewer shots than anyone else this season, says Opta.

The Shrews have certainly had a busy summer in the transfer market. Andy Mangan seems to be having a good reprieve in the game after betting scandals of the past and has scored three of the Shrews' nine goals in four games so far.

I think the home side have the momentum for victory, perhaps spurred by their manager being spurned at Fleetwood after securing them several quick promotions and then being dumped after a few bad games over Christmas in his first full Football League season. The way Luton are starting to play, there could also be goals aplenty.

Recommended Bet
Back Shrewsbury @ 2.35/4 

Mansfield 3.613/5 v Burton 2.35/4; the draw 3.412/5

If it seems a little risky backing two teams which have just taken League Cup second round scalps, but with Adam McGurk scoring for the first time this season it seems the right time.

Burton's defence looks as solid as it did last season, conceding once every two games, while their ability to score remains, well, enough to often secure a narrow victory.

Mansfield are unbeaten at home this season so far and are relieved that Sam Clucas will be staying after being linked with Chesterfield, who failed to come up with a big enough bid after four weeks of talks. Clucas was their top scorer, from the wing, last season.

It could mean an upturn for the Stags, but the Brewers should have enough to shut them out and then convert one of their many chances. Mansfield have never scored against Burton in the Football League, say Opta.

Recommended Bet
Back Burton @ 2.35/4

P/L 2014-15

+4.9pt

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