понедельник, 1 сентября 2014 г.

Bundesliga Betting: Sorry Schalke to suffer yet another Bayern defeat

Things aren't going well for Huntelaar's Schalke

Champions Bayern Munich have an outstanding recent record against Schalke, and Kevin Hatchard expects their success to continue this weekend.

Schalke v Bayern Munich
Saturday August 30th, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

After a worryingly fragile display in Dortmund in the German Supercup, Bayern Munich didn't do much to ease their fans' fears with last week's nervy 2-1 win over Wolfsburg. Having carved out a 2-0 lead, Bayern conceded a stunning goal to Ivica Olic, and then came desperately close to letting in an equaliser. Only an early contender for Miss of the Season from Junior Malanda (use your left foot, man!) prevented the Wolves from drawing level in the closing stages.

However, a win's a win, and Bayern have strengthened their squad with two excellent signings this week. Talented defender Mehdi Benatia has arrived from Roma, and I would expect him to bring the ball out from the back to start a fair chunk of Bayern's attacks, which is the role Javi Martinez would've fulfilled had he not suffered a long-term injury.

There has been scepticism in some quarters about the signing of veteran midfielder Xabi Alonso from Real Madrid, especially with the far younger Toni Kroos having headed in the opposite direction, but I think the former Liverpool schemer could be a superb acquisition. He can help break up counter-attacks (the only regular weakness of Guardiola's Bayern), his passing is still accurate, and he has huge experience at the highest level.

Benatia is in line to make his debut against Schalke, a team that Bayern just adore playing. Opta tell us the Bavarians have beaten the Royal Blues in each of their last seven meetings, and that run includes three straight successes at the Veltins Arena. It's also worth noting that Bayern have lost just one of their last 34 away games in the Bundesliga.

I've been writing about Schalke's inferiority complex against top sides in this column for several seasons, and it's a problem that shows no signs of being solved. To make matters worse, Schalke's confidence is low after an awful start to the season. A dismal cup defeat at third-tier side Dynamo Drseden was followed by last weekend's sloppy 2-1 reverse at Hannover. Schalke led through Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's opener, but conceded twice in the closing stages in a display that skipper Benedikt Howedes described as "careless, with too much egotism and not enough teamwork." Ouch.

Schalke have a group of incredibly talented youngsters, but coach Jens Keller perennially seems set for the axe, and some of the club's more established names suffer from bouts of inconsistency. Although I would expect the Gelsenkirchen-based club to challenge for the top four, anything more ambitious is surely beyond them at this stage.

Keller isn't helped this weekend by injuries. Midfielder Kevin-Prince Boateng hasn't trained all week because of an inflamed ankle, Huntelaar has a virus, and rampaging wide-man Jefferson Farfan is a long-term casualty. Bayern are without Javi Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Arjen Robben faces a fitness test on an ankle problem.

Schalke's displays against Bayern last season were pretty feeble, as they lost 4-0 at home and 5-1 away. With confidence low and key players short of 100% fitness, I don't see things being much different on Saturday evening. The champions are still playing their way into the campaign, but I would happily back them -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at a generous 2.09n/a.

Recommended Bet

Back Bayern Munich -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.09n/a (best bet)

Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Friday August 29th, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Borussia Dortmund made a losing start to their title challenge, as they ran into a Bayer Leverkusen side brimming with confidence under new coach Roger Schmidt. Karim Bellarabi's record-breaking goal after nine seconds set the tone, and Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't find a way to break down an outstanding Bayer defence as they went down 2-0.

Klopp is usually pretty good at getting his troops to recover quickly from set-backs, and Friday night's trip to Augsburg affords BvB a good opportunity to do just that. The Bavarians had a good season last term, but they were comfortably beaten 2-0 at Hoffenheim last week, and they went out of the German Cup in pathetic fashion to minnows Magdeburg.

Augsburg's record against Dortmund is poor - Opta tell us they have never beaten them in the Bundesliga, and last season they were swept aside 4-0 at home, as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang netted a hat-trick.

Dortmund's new signing Ciro Immobile was hopelessly ineffective last week, and he could be benched in favour of fellow new recruit Adrian Ramos. Aubameyang is also likely to start, and in defence Matthias Ginter could make way for Neven Subotic. Augsburg are still trying to compensate for the loss of star player Andre Hahn to Borussia Monchengladbach, and they'll be without midfielder Markus Feulner, who has a shoulder injury.

Augsburg tend to start seasons slowly, as coach Markus Weinzierl usually has to find a way of rebuilding his side when key players move on. Dortmund didn't play as badly as some have suggested last week, and I think they'll have too much firepower for Augsburg to cope with.

Recommended Bet

Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.265/4

Bayer Leverkusen v Hertha Berlin
Saturday August 30th, 14:30

I can't praise Bayer Leverkusen's performance in last week's 2-0 win at Borussia Dortmund highly enough. They were dangerous in attack, with Hakan Calhanoglu and the outstanding Karim Bellarabi buzzing around Stefan Kiessling. They pressed hard in midfield, and centre-backs Omer Toprak and Emir Spahic were superb. Special mention must go to 18-year-old right-back Tin Jedvaj, who played with the composure of a man twice his age.

Bayer have played four competitive games under new coach Roger Schmidt, and he is delivering on his promise to play attacking football. Die Werkself have scored 15 goals in four games, including a 4-0 Champions League hammering of Copenhagen in midweek.

Hertha Berlin had a frustrating opening to the season, as they were held to a 2-2 draw by Werder Bremen at the Olympiastadion. New signing Julian Schieber showed his quality with a brace, but the defence collapsed after the break as Hertha shipped two goals in three minutes. Centre-backs Sebastian Langkamp and Johnny Heitinga are strong but lack pace, and it's worth considering they let in a couple of goals in a 4-2 cup win at Viktoria Koln.

On current form, Bayer will cause Hertha's ponderous defence huge problems, and I can see a comfortable win for the hosts. I know we were burned by the Over 3.5 Goals with Bayer last week, but I'm willing to go back in at generous odds of 2.767/4. It's also worth backing the hosts -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at evens.

Recommended Bets

Back Bayer Leverkusen -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.01/1

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.767/4

Kevin will be commentating on Bundesliga games throughout the season, as this weekend he is covering Schalke v Bayern Munich and Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach - you can follow him on Twitter @kevinhatchard, if you like that sort of thing

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 4

Points Returned: 3.97

P/L: -0.03 points

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