Hungary v Northern Ireland: Visitors unlikely to strike

Bolton's Adam Bogdan is usually Hungary's first-choice goalkeeper

The Hungary clean sheet is the best bet on offer in their Euro 2016 qualifier with Northern Ireland, argues Michael Lintorn...

Hungary v Northern Ireland
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports 3

Match Odds: Hungary 1.528/15, Northern Ireland 8.615/2, The Draw 4.3100/30

Northern Ireland have beaten a heap of opponents that they had virtually no right to in tournament qualifiers over the past nine years, including England, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Russia. However, each of those victories shared a common trait: they were achieved at Windsor Park.

The odds are upset far less frequently when they get their passports stamped, with their previous 30 competitive away games delivering just three wins (against Liechtenstein, San Marino and Slovenia), compared to ten draws and 17 losses.

That road record is becoming progressively weaker too. Over four years have passed since their last travelling triumph, a sequence encompassing 18 encounters outside of Belfast, and five of their latest seven trips abroad ended in defeat.

Michael O'Neill's prospects of arresting that run in Budapest are further hindered by the absence of Premier League centre backs Jonny Evans and Alex Bruce, the former through suspension and the latter because his wife is due to give birth.

Hungary took ten home points from an available 15 in both of their most recent two qualifying campaigns, only surrendering three points in one go to the Netherlands (twice) in that four-year period. It is therefore difficult to dispute that 1.528/15 is a reasonable price on them prevailing.

Hungary clean sheet

Everyone is familiar with Will Grigg after his classy brace in MK Dons' unforeseen 4-0 smiting of Man United in the Capital One Cup, and Kyle Lafferty is fairly well known, but their status as headliners emphasises that Northern Ireland do not possess a heavyweight attack.

Four of the forwards in O'Neill's squad have never scored an international goal and nobody in it has reached double figures, with Lafferty's tally of nine in 37 caps rendering him the sole player over halfway there.

In that context, it is no surprise that they have failed to fire in each of their last four matches. Hungary shut out their three prior visitors to Budapest and will have to be feeling very charitable to yield that streak to this Northern Ireland frontline.

Best Bet
Back Hungary to keep a clean sheet @ 1.910/11