Against All Odds: Goals at La Bombonera

Are the good times on the way back to Boca?

There's a thrilling game in store in Argentina tonight as Paul Robinson is predicting goals when Boca Juniors take on Racing Club.

Boca Juniors v Racing Club
Sunday September 14, 22:15 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Boca Juniors made the bold but arguably necessary decision to change manager last month and so far it's paid dividends. Having exited the Copa Argentina and lost three of their opening four league games, 'Xeneizes' hired Rodolfo Arruabarrena to take over from Carlos Bianchi. The new man has won both Primera Division matches and earned a 1-1 draw at Rosario Central in the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana tie.

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in here though and quite uncharacteristically, this league has been high-scoring this term. Over half of the clubs are seeing their matches average 2.5 goals per game or higher, and just last night, Independiente beat Quilmes 5-3 while Tigre won 4-1 against Rosario Central.

The Betfair markets haven't quite caught up to this shift yet though and under 2.5 goals is again very short. Boca have had three of their six league fixtures have three goals or more this year - two of which came at La Bombonera. 

Racing Club changed their manager in the close-season and things looked bright initially as they won three of their first four outings. Things have taken a turn for the worse since as they've now lost their last two - a 2-1 defeat at Independiente, and most recently, a 3-1 reverse at home to Lanus.

Diego Cocca's men have conceded 10 goals so far this term and while they're up in ninth in the table, only half a dozen clubs have conceded more. With eight scored at the other end, their matches are averaging dead on three goals each time. Four of the six have gone over 2.5 - including three that went over 3.5 goals.

I was sorely tempted to suggest a lay of under 3.5 goals at around the 1.211/5 mark, but I've opted to play it safe and take on under 2.5 at 1.584/7. So with it raining goals in Argentina, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Boca Juniors v Racing Club @ 1.584/7

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 247 pts
Returned: 253.29 pts
P/L: + 6.29 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)