Germany v Argentina: Messi to cement legacy

The stage is set for Lionel Andrs Messi

The culmination of one of the greatest ever World Cups takes place in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday night as Germany battle it out with Argentina, and Paul Robinson has been tasked with finding the best bets...

Germany v Argentina
Sunday July 13, 20:00 BST
Live on BBC 1 & ITV 1

Germany shocked the world on Tuesday night as they completely tore apart host nation, Brazil. The final score was 7-1 but that could have been more if they'd wanted to further humiliate their opponents. The midfield triangle of Toni Kroos, Sami Khedira and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlled the game and it appears that manager, Joachim Low, has rightfully abandoned the idea of deploying Philipp Lahm in the centre of midfield.

The Germans had a much easier outing than they did in their quarter-final clash with France, but even then, they weren't overly threatened in their 1-0 victory. In fact, aside from their opener with Portugal, 'Die Mannschaft' have improved as the tournament has worn on - which is usually a good omen.

There are still chinks in Germany's armour though, most notably down their left flank as the duo of Mesut Ozil and Benedikt Howedes are vulnerable. Ozil hasn't been showing the same kind of form that he did for Real Madrid and Howedes is a centre back by trade.

Argentina needed penalties to make it through to the final as their semi with the Dutch was almost the complete opposite of its counterpart. It wasn't that the match lacked quality - although the forward players didn't overly shine - it was just that the tactics of each team cancelled the other one out. 

Alejandro Sabella will have been delighted with the performance of Javier Mascherano, in particular, as the Barcelona man showed why the Spanish giants are making a mistake by playing him in defence and not in midfield. The manager will be hoping for more from some of his other players though, most notably Gonzalo Higuain and Ezequiel Lavezzi, and it will be interesting to see if he brings Sergio Aguero back into the starting XI following his appearance off the bench on Wednesday. 

The key will be in the performance of Lionel Messi and opinion is still divided over how he's played at the World Cup thus far. He's been brilliant at times - the winner against Iran being the highlight - but he's only done it in fits and bursts, and for arguably the best player on the planet, that's not quite good enough.

Match Odds
Germany 2.47/5 Argentina 3.613/5 The Draw 3.259/4

The Europeans are the favourites and they can be backed at 2.47/5 to repeat their 1990 triumph over the South Americans inside 90 minutes. That seems a bit short for me as while Argentina have been struggling through their matches, they always seem to be able to pull out more when they need to.  

Given the way the other knockout games have gone, the draw will be a popular selection and that is trading at around the 3.259/4 mark. World Cup finals have historically been tight matches and while the draw is certainly a distinct possibility, it's a bit of a negative bet.

That leaves Argentina to get the job done in normal time, and at 3.613/5, I think that's real value. Winning a World Cup in Brazil is almost the holy grail for them and they have the services of Lionel Messi to boot. 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.77/4 Under 2.5 Goals 1.584/7

I've already touched on the fact that World Cup finals are usually cagey affairs and I expect this to be no different. Argentina have kept clean sheets in their three knockout games and their defence has looked more and more solid as each match passes. 

The Germans racked up seven goals against Brazil but they won't be up against David Luiz and co. on Sunday. They also lack a real top quality striker in his prime, as while Mirolsav Klose has now overtaken Ronaldo's record goal tally, he's 36 years old and his best days are behind him.

This isn't a market to play in for me as the odds seem about right, but if I was pushed, I'd definitely be siding with Under 2.5.

Correct Score  

Given my thoughts so far, it will come as no surprise that I'm picking out a low-scoring Argentina win. There are two options available - 1-0 at 9.417/2 or 2-0 at 22.021/1. The latter is definitely the one that sticks out at those prices and I'm surprised it's that big as it's not like 2-0 is a thrashing. 

If Argentina can get the first goal, then the Germans will become more and more desperate to equalise and that will leave them exposed to the counter. Led by Messi, 'La Albiceleste' are more than capable of exploiting that and putting the game to bed.

First Goalscorer  

This is going to be an unoriginal selection but when else is Lionel Messi going to be 7.26/1 to open the scoring? Not only is he a huge threat from open play, he is on free kicks and penalties as well. He's netted half of his team's eight goals and he's the only player on the pitch who can create a magic of moment out of nothing.

Cash Out   

I've had great success with my cash out recommendations in the World Cup to date - including 7.613/2, 7.06/1 and 8.415/2 winners that aren't included in the overall profit and loss shown at the bottom of the article. 

I'm hoping to round off the tournament with another, and Argentina to be winning 1-0 at half time is the pick. It's currently trading at around the 6.611/2 mark and if the game goes the way I think it will, it should be much shorter at some point.

Recommended Bets
Back Argentina @ 3.613/5 (2pts)
Back Argentina to win 2-0 @ 22.021/1 (1pt)
Back Lionel Messi to score first @ 7.26/1 (1pt)

Best Cash Out
Back Argentina to be winning 1-0 at Half Time @ 6.611/2   

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 33 pts
Returned: 44.21 pts
P/L: +11.21 pts