World Cup 2014: Defensive Argentina can frustrate rampant Germans

Alejandro Sabella's reputation has been enhanced

Jonathan Wilson tells us why Brazil's collapse was always likely to be a spectacular one, and how Argentina - who coped with plenty of emotion of their own against Netherlands - can hang in against Germany and perhaps snatch a narrow victory...

It feels strange to say it, given how Brazil's 7-1 defeat to Germany continues to reverberate through the tournament, but as a guide to how the final might pan out, that first semi-final is almost a complete irrelevance.

Germany played well, of course they did, moving the ball swiftly and intelligently, and capitalising with magnificent precision on Brazil's collapses, but it's almost impossible to know the extent to which they were the agents of that collapse.

What is true is that they were splendidly unflustered in the frenzy, that they converted another set-piece, and then sliced Brazil open again and again. But it's also true that Brazil were an over-inflated balloon waiting to be burst, whipped into a fury by Luiz Felipe Scolari, a crowd that expected and demanded victory, and the hysteria that followed Neymar's injury.

Brazil played with such psychological intensity that the collapse, if it came, was always likely to be dramatic. Argentina simply will not fall apart like that.

Brazil were driven to a pitch of irrationality by an injury to a key forward. Argentina went into Wednesday's semi-final with far more reason to be emotional. Jorge Lopez, a popular reporter who was close to Lionel Messi, had been killed in a car-crash the night before, the second Argentinian journalist to have been killed during the tournament. It was Argentinian national day and Alfredo Di Stefano had died two days earlier. From them, though, there was no mawkishness, rather a steely discipline.

Beforehand, the huge doubt had been how Argentina's slow back four could possibly deal with the pace of Arjen Robben. Alejandro Sabella had them sit deep and constructed a midfield to protect them. There was never any space for Robben to open his legs until injury-time, when he was checked by a superb challenge from Javier Mascherano, a player who has emerged to rival Messi as perhaps the single biggest factor in Argentina's World Cup.

Sabella has been much criticised in this tournament, his halting press-conference demeanour and the rumours of Messi having a free hand leading to doubts as to whether he is really in control of the team, but it should not be forgotten what an excellent defensive coach he is.

His Estudiantes side that won the Copa Libertadores in 2009 and the apertura in 2010 were supremely well-drilled and, whatever happens in the final, the way he has handled a series of injuries to key players means Sabella exits this tournament with his reputation enhanced.

Argentina, as they did against the Dutch, will sit deep. There will be no space behind Marcos Rojo for Thomas Muller to exploit. Martin Demichelis will have few qualms about the aerial ability of Miroslav Klose. Mesut Ozil may struggle to contain Pablo Zabaleta. The battle between Toni Kroos and Mascherano will be fascinating.

That's not to say Germany won't pose a threat to Argentina. It's not to say that Germany aren't worthy favourites (1.728/11 to Argentina's 2.3811/8), but it is to say that they will find Argentina will present far stiffer opposition than Brazil.

Kroos and Jogi Low were admirably down-to-earth after the semi-final, insisting their focus was still on winning one more game, and it probably is true that this Germany, with its self-assurance, is less likely to get carried away by such a result than any other team in the competition, but there must surely be a danger of them getting carried away, trying to force the pace. Sami Khedira's role then becomes vital: he was superb getting forward against Brazil, but against Argentina his job will be to help Bastian Schweinsteiger keep Messi quiet.

If Germany score early, it's hard to see how Argentina could possibly get back into the game without leaving themselves open to those lethal German counters, but if Argentina can cling in, if they can frustrate Germany, there is always the presence of Messi waiting to penalise even be slightest slip.

Recommended Bet
Back Argentina to win 1-0 @ 9.417/2