US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Tough conditions could give Nishikori a shot against Djokovic

How much does Nishikori have left in the tank?

We're down to the last four in the 2014 US Open Men's Singles and after a successful tournament so far, tennis expert Sean Calvert is back to preview the semi final featuring Novak Djokovic...

Roger Federer and Gael Monfils provided another winning bet on Thursday when their semi final went all the way to five sets and a long way past my recommended wager of over 38.5 total games.

The bet was home just before Monfils failed with the two match points that would have knocked Federer out of the tournament and in typical Lamonf style he ended up losing a match in which he'd played most of the better tennis.

So, Federer is through to face Marin Cilic, while Novak Djokovic takes on Kei Nishikori for a place in the final.

It's fair to say that Nishikori has been a bit of a thorn in the side of many a punter this fortnight after confusing most with his injury updates.

After initially stating that he may not even play his first round match with Wayne Odesnik due to a foot injury that required a cyst to be removed ahead of the tournament the Japanese star has made the semis.

In so doing he becomes the first man from his nation to make the last four in New York since Ichiya Kumagae in 1918 and he's done it the hard way by winning in five sets the last two rounds.

On the face of it that level of excursion on a supposedly injured foot would give him little or no chance against an opponent like Djokovic, but Nishikori has done an about turn and now he says that before the Stan Wawrinka match he was "not 100% but close to."

The good news from his point of view is that Nishikori will have had two days and nights of rest before he has to face Djokovic, who himself had a late night on Wednesday, finishing in the early hours against Andy Murray.

All of which makes the 1.121/8 about Novak winning this a little bit silly, as he's shorter now than he was when Nishikori pulled out of their slated Miami semi final at the end of March.

Nishikori had also played some tough matches ahead of that one, hence the withdrawal, but he won't be quitting this tournament until he's been beaten on court or won it.

Kei did beat Novak in their last actual match-up, which was back in 2011 indoors in Basel when the wild card dished up a bagel to the number one seed in the final set of the Swiss Indoors.

If there are any bagels to be handed out one would expect them to be delivered the other way this time if Kei is jaded and the price on a 6-0 set today is a tempting 10.09/1.

I prefer siding with the Japanese player, who will overtake Murray in the rankings next week to number nine at least, to win a set here at a price of around 2.111/10.

If he is able to produce the kind of tennis that we've seen in spells against Wawrinka and Milos Raonic then he has every chance of grabbing a set and the 3-1 to Djokovic also appeals at around 3.814/5.

The fact that this match will be played at 12pm local time today (5pm UK) in very hot and humid conditions of around 30C and over 60% humidity could be a bit of a leveller for Kei and it could be tougher for Novak than the odds suggest.

Recommended Bet
Back Nishikori to win a set at 2.111/10

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1116.00